Bitcoin stays rangebound as bond yields take centre stage

Welcome to your BTC Markets VIP Desk briefing.

Time to read: ~8 minutes

The week in 60 seconds

• Macro: A soft US jobs report pulled October Fed hike odds to around one in five, even as the 10-year Treasury yield touched its highest level since 2002 on Thursday.
• Policy: The SEC proposed a crypto custody framework for advisers and funds and cleared listing rules for six 3x leveraged products including Bitcoin and Ether.
• Energy: G7 nations agreed to a coordinated reserve release, but Brent held near US$102 (A$146.88) as Strait of Hormuz tensions continued.
• Markets: Bitcoin finished slightly higher near US$85,000, broadly in line with US stocks, while gold fell about 3.4%.
• Ahead: A 10-year auction and the Fed minutes early Thursday, followed by a 30-year auction early Friday (AEDT), headline an otherwise quiet calendar.

Intro

Bond yields set the tone last week, and crypto mostly followed. Long-dated US yields climbed to levels not seen in more than two decades before Friday's weak jobs report cooled them, while Bitcoin finished close to where it started. This edition looks at why rates remain central to the crypto outlook, what the SEC's latest moves mean for institutional access, and why a quieter calendar could leave markets more sensitive to headlines.

Significant events 

Three developments that matter

A weak jobs print, a regulatory step forward and an oil market under strain all fed one question this week: how much tighter does US policy still need to get?

A jobs miss resets the Fed debate

CME FedWatch odds of an October hike fell to around 17% after Friday's payrolls miss, down from roughly 36% a week earlier. Other measures put the probability closer to 22%. With the Fed's range already lifted to 3.75 to 4.00% in September, a pause would leave policy restrictive rather than loose. For crypto, a Fed that stops tightening is a different backdrop from one that keeps going, with Bitcoin highly sensitive to the cost of money.

The SEC builds the plumbing

On Thursday, the SEC proposed allowing advisers and regulated funds to hold crypto through state trust companies and, in limited cases, through self-custody. Public comment runs for 60 days once the proposal is published. The proposal addresses custody barriers that have complicated crypto access for advisers and regulated funds. A day later, the SEC cleared six triple-leveraged Volatility Shares products for listing, two tied to Bitcoin and Ether and four to commodities, though none can trade until registration is complete. With the CLARITY Act stalled in the Senate, the regulatory agenda is advancing through agencies rather than legislation.

Oil keeps rates on edge

A G7 release of 100 million barrels pushed WTI lower, while Brent held near US$102 (A$146.88) as Strait of Hormuz risks persisted. Higher energy costs are adding to inflation pressure in the US and Australia, where the RBA lifted its cash rate to 4.60% on 29 September. Until oil settles, pressure on the rates outlook remains.

By the Numbers

The Week in Data

5.34%: Intraday peak in the 10-year US Treasury yield on Thursday, its highest level since 2002.

Source: CNN

29,000: US jobs added in September, with unemployment at 4.2%, pulling October rate-hike expectations sharply lower.

Source: US Labor Department via Yahoo Finance

1,241: Crypto job openings in September, more than triple July’s 382, led by finance roles.

Source: CryptoJobsList via Investing.com

Market snapshot

Calm on the surface, cautious underneath

The Fear & Greed Index sits at 70 (“Greed”), level with a week ago after dipping to 65 over the weekend. Sentiment remains positive without reaching the Extreme Greed levels associated with a more stretched market.

Bitcoin ended the week slightly higher, while crypto markets remained relatively steady. Bitcoin dominance near 57.9% shows the asset retaining a substantial share of total market value.

The Signal

A quarter for the record books

Bitcoin’s third quarter ranked among its strongest on record, marking a sharp turnaround after two losing quarters.

Source: CoinGlass

Bitcoin Quarterly Returns (%)

Bitcoin returned 42.71% in Q3 2026, its second-best third quarter since 2013, behind only 2017’s 80.41%. The gain reversed losses in both Q1 and Q2 and came in well above the historical Q3 average of 8.67%.

Economic calendar

The week ahead

A light calendar puts Fed minutes, Treasury auctions and next week’s US inflation data at the centre of attention.

6 October: US ISM Services PMI and Australian consumer sentiment

US services data offers another read on inflation pressures, while consumer sentiment provides the first look at Australian households since last week’s rate rise.

8 October: US 10-year Treasury auction and FOMC minutes

The auction will test demand for US debt after yields reached multi-decade highs, followed by Fed minutes offering more detail on the thinking behind September’s rate hike.

8 October: US jobless claims

Weekly claims provide the next check on labour-market conditions following Friday’s weaker jobs report.

9 October: US 30-year Treasury auction

The second long-bond auction will test demand at the longer end of the yield curve, where yields have risen most.

10 October: US consumer sentiment and inflation expectations

Preliminary October data will provide an updated read on household confidence and inflation expectations.

14 October: US CPI

September CPI will be the final major inflation print before the Fed’s October decision and could help shape expectations for its next move.

Sources: Newsquawk, Kiplinger, investingLive, LiteFinance, Fed Interest Rate 2026: Current Rate & FOMC Schedule

From the Desk

A year on, the price of money still rules

With little data due, attention turns to the bond market and the headlines, with crypto responding more to rates than to anything inside the market itself.

Tuesday marks a year since Bitcoin’s all-time high of about US$126,000 (A$181,440), and it now trades roughly a third below that peak. What has changed most over that year is the price of money. The Fed has gone from cutting to hiking, while long-dated US yields have climbed to levels last seen more than two decades ago. Bitcoin’s move towards US$87,000 (A$125,280) as yields eased on Friday showed that relationship clearly. With a 10-year Treasury auction and Fed minutes on Thursday, followed by the 30-year auction on Friday, rates remain the key signal to watch. Inside crypto, conditions look steady rather than strong, with patchier ETF demand and thinner futures premiums. For now, there is no clear directional signal.

Question of the Week

Q: Bond yields are above 5%, and the Fed has started hiking again. Why hasn't Bitcoin fallen further?

A: Markets price what comes next, and the question has shifted from how far rates rise to how soon they stop. Bitcoin also entered this period after a deep drawdown, so much of the bad news was already reflected in the price, while late-September ETF buying helped absorb selling. Higher yields are showing up more in futures premiums, limiting risk appetite without triggering heavier selling.

Story of the week

Bitcoin’s familiar three letters technically point to a Himalayan kingdom, which happens to be one of the world’s more unlikely Bitcoin holders.

Under ISO 4217, the standard behind codes like AUD and USD, the first two letters of a currency code name its country, and BT belongs to Bhutan. That clash is why parts of traditional finance write Bitcoin as XBT, using the X prefix reserved for assets with no home country, the same convention behind gold’s XAU and silver’s XAG. XBT has never been formally assigned by ISO but has appeared on Bloomberg terminals since 2013 and on some exchanges today.

Bhutan adds another twist. Its sovereign investment arm, Druk Holding and Investments, mined Bitcoin using surplus hydropower and held close to 13,000 BTC at its October 2024 peak, at one point worth more than 40% of the country’s GDP. On-chain trackers suggest it has since drawn down much of that position. So, the three letters on most trading screens are, by coincidence, also the country code of one of the few nations to have mined Bitcoin itself.

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