Markets hold their breath ahead of a big Tuesday

Welcome to your BTC Markets VIP Desk briefing.

Time to read: ~8 minutes

The week in 60 seconds

• Binance lost an estimated US$6.3 billion in the largest crypto theft on record, then reopened withdrawals on Sunday after covering most of the shortfall from its own funds.
• Americans vote on Tuesday in midterms that will decide who writes the next US crypto market structure bill.
• Two Fed officials voted for an immediate rate rise, and the RBA is widely tipped to hike on Melbourne Cup Day.
• Sentiment has dropped to fear, positioning is light, and ETF holders sold heavily on Friday.
• Our question of the week explains why an RBA decision can move your bitcoin balance in Australian dollars.

Intro

Last week tested two kinds of confidence at once. One was confidence in the plumbing of crypto itself, after the industry's largest-ever theft hit its biggest exchange. The other was confidence that interest rates have peaked, which central banks in Washington and Sydney have done little to support. Prices held up better than the headlines might suggest, and this week brings a US election with real consequences for crypto regulation. Here is how we read it.

Significant events 

A record exchange hack, a pivotal US election and a hawkish turn from central banks all landed within a few days.

Binance: the largest theft in crypto history

Late on Thursday 29 October, attackers drained an estimated US$6.3 billion from Binance's hot wallets, the online wallets it uses for day-to-day payouts. The FBI has linked the attack to North Korea's TraderTraitor group, and around US$3 billion has been frozen with help from stablecoin issuers and other partners. Binance has said it will absorb the loss rather than pass it to customers, setting aside more than US$6.34 billion of its own funds and reporting roughly 95% of affected assets replenished before withdrawals began reopening in phases on Sunday.

Sources: CoinDesk, 30 Oct and 1 Nov 2026; CNBC, 31 Oct 2026; Cointelegraph; Analytics Insight

Midterms: who writes the next crypto law

All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on Tuesday's ballot, and crypto industry groups have spent more than US$200 million trying to shape the result, according to CNBC. The stakes are concrete. The CLARITY Act, which would split crypto oversight between the SEC and CFTC, failed a Senate procedural vote 49-50 in September and lapses when this Congress ends. Whoever controls the key committees in January will hold the pen on the next draft, including contested issues such as officials' personal crypto holdings and stablecoin yield. Some analysts, including 21Shares, argue the result matters less than it seems, since any such bill still needs 60 Senate votes.

Sources: CNBC, 31 Oct 2026; 21Shares; Sumsub CLARITY Act tracker

Rate hikes are back on the table

On 28 October the Fed held its target range at 3.75-4.00%, but two officials voted to raise rates on the spot, and futures pricing now leans heavily towards a December rise. Australia is further along. September's monthly CPI came in at 4.3%, and all four major banks expect the cash rate to go from 4.60% to 4.85% this week, which would be the fifth increase of 2026. Assets that pay no income now compete with cash rates of roughly 4-5% in both countries. Gold felt it most, sliding to about a one-year low despite conflict in the Gulf.

Sources: FOMC October 2026. FedWatch - CME Group

By the Numbers

The Week in Data

7.3% Bitcoin's October decline, its second losing October in a row after a 4% fall last year.

Source: Bitcoin Price Prediction for November 2026

5.3% The Nasdaq's October fall, its worst month since March 2025, as investors questioned the payoff from AI spending.

Source: John Hancock Investments

US$104 WTI crude's Friday settlement after a 15% gain in October on Strait of Hormuz attacks, adding to inflation pressure.

Source: Investing.com - Stock Market Quotes & Financial News

18 Years since the Bitcoin white paper was published on 31 October 2008, nine pages that now underpin a US$1.5 trillion asset.

Source: Bitcoin.com — Buy Bitcoin, Wallet, News & Prices

Market snapshot

Fear is high, but leverage is low, which makes this a cautious market rather than a crowded one.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index reads 37 (Fear), down from 50 (Neutal) a week ago and 67 (Greed) a month ago. Bitcoin is trading at approximately US$77,600-78,100 (A$110,000-111,000), with the range reflecting a gap between CoinGecko and Coinbase quotes. Ether sits near US$2,260 (about A$3,200) and XRP near US$1.25 (about A$1.78). CoinGecko puts total crypto market value at US$2.68 trillion and bitcoin dominance at 58.5%, though another tracker shows closer to 60%. Bitcoin's low for the week was around US$76,100 on Friday, so the market absorbed a record theft with a dip of only a few per cent.

Overall, positioning looks light going into the week, with Tuesday's US midterms the main headline risk on the horizon.

Weekly crypto close as of 02/11/2026 11:00 AEDT

Sources: Crypto Fear & Greed Index - Bitcoin Sentiment - Alternative.me; CoinGecko; Coinbase; Yahoo Finance

The Signal

Institutional bitcoin demand flipped sharply on Friday and finished October as a net seller.

Friday's US$643 million of redemptions, the largest single day since June, wiped out four days of inflows and left the week US$202 million in the red, extending October's net outflow to roughly US$515 million.

ETF flows are the clearest public read on whether large allocators are adding or trimming as rate expectations rise.

Source: Coinglass US spot Bitcoin ETF daily net flows

Economic calendar

Six dates this week could shift sentiment, starting with Binance's reserves report and ending with US payrolls.

BY TUE 3 NOV: Binance announcement due

Scheduled to provide a full proof-of-reserves report including complete cryptographic verification of customer balances following the hack.

TUE 3 NOV 2:30PM AEDT: RBA decision and Statement on Monetary Policy

Updated forecasts and Governor Bullock's 3:30pm press conference will show whether the Board sees further increases ahead.

TUE 3 NOV (US), RESULTS WED AEDT: US midterm elections

Results start arriving Wednesday morning our time, and close races can take days to finalise.

THU 5 NOV FROM 12:15AM AEDT: US ADP employment and ISM Services

The last labour and services reads before payrolls, alongside the US Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement.

THU 5 NOV 11:00PM AEDT: Bank of England decision

Widely expected to deliver its first hike of this cycle.

SAT 7 NOV 12:30AM AEDT: US non-farm payrolls (October)

Consensus sits around 55,000-65,000 jobs after September's 29,000, the key data point before the Fed's December meeting.

CRYPTO OPTIONS: No major monthly expiry this week

Deribit's weekly expiry falls on Friday at 7:00pm AEDT; the November monthly is on 27 November.

Sources: Week ahead: Elections. The Week Ahead - November 2 to 6. RBA, BoE, US Midterms.

From the Desk

Markets brace for a big week

The market passed a severe stress test last week, and the next tests come from outside crypto.

Step back from the individual headlines and one thing stands out. A theft of this size at the world's largest exchange might once have triggered a market-wide panic. This time prices dipped, withdrawals reopened within days and the industry helped freeze nearly half the stolen funds. That says something about how much deeper and more coordinated the market has become.

The harder question is macro. Hikes are now being priced in the US, Australia and the UK, raising the bar for every asset that offers no yield. October's sell-off in AI-heavy tech stocks shows investors are already applying that discipline elsewhere.

For the week ahead, we see three things worth following. The first is whether Binance’s report lands on time and settles the remaining questions. The second is how US lawmakers' committee line-up looks once the votes are counted. The third is whether Friday's jobs data cements a December Fed hike or softens the case for one. None of these tells us where prices go next, but together they will set the tone for November.

Question of the Week

Q: Why does an RBA rate decision affect my bitcoin balance in Australian dollars?

A: Bitcoin trades mostly in US dollars worldwide, so its price in Australian dollars reflects two moving parts, bitcoin's own price and the AUD/USD exchange rate. Interest rates are one of the forces behind that exchange rate, since higher Australian rates relative to US rates can make the Australian dollar more attractive to hold, and lower relative rates can have the opposite effect.

When the Australian dollar strengthens, the same bitcoin is worth fewer Australian dollars, and when it weakens, it is worth more, even if the US dollar price hasn't moved at all. Currency markets usually price in a widely expected decision well ahead of time, so the larger shifts tend to come from surprises or from changes in the RBA's guidance about what comes next.

Story of the week

Bitcoin miners warm up the northern winter

As the northern winter sets in, bitcoin miners are being put to work as heaters, from a Nordic town network to a suburban hot water tank.

Every watt a bitcoin miner draws ends up as heat, and most mining sites pay to get rid of it. Canaan, a major mining hardware maker, says its Nordic district-heating project is now fully running, capturing the warmth from its machines to heat roughly 2,800 homes.

The idea is shrinking to household size. In late October a US start-up called Heatbit opened preorders for Bitwater, a US$899 element that screws into an ordinary electric hot water tank and swaps the heating coil for 20 mining chips. The water cools the chips, the chips heat the water, and the household earns a little bitcoin for showers it was going to take anyway, with the company pointing to estimates of around a dollar a day.

Whether the numbers stack up depends on power prices and hot water use. Still, it reframes an old argument. The question may be less about how much energy Bitcoin uses and more about where the heat ends up.

Sources: Canaan Turns Bitcoin Mining Heat Into District Heating for 2,800 Nordic Homes - Crypto DailyHeatbit Says Your Water Heater Should Be Mining Bitcoin, and Now It Can

Announcements

BTC Markets returns for Markets Day for Charity 2026

BTC Markets will donate 100% of its trading profits on 10 November 2026 to the ASX Refinitiv Charity Foundation. The initiative brings together Australia's financial community to support children's and health charities across the country.

Learn more about our participation

Hyperliquid (HYPE) is now available on BTC Markets

You can now trade HYPE/AUD on BTC Markets. HYPE is the native token of the Hyperliquid blockchain and is used across the network for staking, governance, gas fees, trading discounts, and market deployment.

Trade HYPE/AUD today

BTC Markets celebrates three finalist nominations at The DIGIs 2026

BTC Markets has been recognised in three categories at the 2026 Australian Digital Economy Awards (The DIGIs): Digital Currency Exchange of the Year, The Blockies Award for Blockchain & Digital Asset Excellence, and Emerging Leader of the Year (Under 35), recognising Anastasia Varlamova, People and Culture Manager. The winners will be announced in Sydney on 27 November.

View the finalists

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