Bitcoin breaks above US$94k as markets rebound

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State of crypto

• Bitcoin breaks above US$94k as crypto and stock markets rebound
• US$3.6B Bitcoin venture planned by Cantor, Tether, and SoftBank
• Trump Media pushes into crypto and ETF space with new venture
• Paul Atkins sworn in as SEC chair, prioritises digital asset regulation

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Bitcoin breaks above US$94k as markets rebound

For the first time since early March, Bitcoin surged above US$94k as investors finally respond to signs of easing trade tensions and a stabilising US dollar. This rally coincides with a broader market rebound, with US stocks climbing after President Trump indicated a willingness to reduce tariffs on Chinese imports and affirmed his support for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

The shift in tone from the White House has managed to alleviate investor concerns over a potential escalation in the trade war, leading to gains across major stock indices. The S&P 500 rose by around 2.5% while the NASDAQ Composite gained around 2.7%. Meanwhile, The Dow Jones Industrial Average added over 1,000 points. The positive market response is attributed to the softening stance on tariffs by the Trump administrations and a commitment to maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve.

In the crypto market, Bitcoin's price surge has been accompanied by significant inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, totalling over US$910 million in cumulative net inflows on April 22nd, as confirmed by Glassnode. With the dollar stabilising and trade tensions showing signs of de-escalation, investors are increasingly turning to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin as alternative stores of value.

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US$3.6B Bitcoin venture planned by Cantor, Tether, and SoftBank

Cantor Fitzgerald has partnered with Tether, and SoftBank to form Twenty One Capital, a US$3.6 billion Bitcoin-focused investment firm. The venture, established through a merger with Cantor's SPAC, Cantor Equity Partners, will commence with over 42,000 BTC, positioning it as the third-largest corporate holder of Bitcoin globally. Tether is contributing US$1.6 billion in Bitcoin, Bitfinex exchange US$600 million, and SoftBank US$900 million. Led by Jack Mallers, founder of Strike, the venture aims to emulate Strategy's approach by maximising Bitcoin ownership per share and developing Bitcoin-native financial products. The firm plans to raise an additional US$585 million through convertible bonds and equity financing.

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Trump Media pushes into crypto and ETF space with new venture

Trump Media & Technology Group has announced a binding agreement to launch a range of retail investment products, including crypto offerings and ETFs aligned with President Trump’s “America First” agenda. The firm aims to diversify into financial services, marking the Trump family’s latest move into the crypto space. This venture reflects the Trump administration’s growing involvement and influence in the cryptocurrency and digital asset space.

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Paul Atkins sworn in as SEC chair, prioritises digital asset regulation

Paul Atkins, a former commissioner of the Securities and Exchange Commission known for his business-friendly stance, was officially sworn in as the new chairman of the SEC on April 21st. Atkins announced that his primary focus will be establishing a robust regulatory framework for digital assets, emphasizing the importance of providing a stable and secure foundation for digital asset markets. He also stressed the need to keep political considerations separate from securities regulation to preserve the integrity and objectivity of financial oversight.

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Crypto Fear & Greed Index

Source: Fear & Greed Index

BTC Markets in the news

Ausbiz: Has Bitcoin decoupled from equities?

Charlie Sherry, Head of Finance at BTC Markets, made an appearance on ausbiz to discuss Bitcoin’s recent price action and what it means for market dynamics. With Bitcoin holding firm while equities pull back, he highlighted signs of a decoupling from traditional markets.

They explored how trade tensions, capital flows, and shifting investor sentiment could push Bitcoin into a new narrative as a neutral global asset with long-term potential. A sustained break above US$90K could mark the next phase of a crypto bull run.

Watch the full interview.

The Block: Spot bitcoin ETFs see US$936 million inflows as 'safe haven' narrative strengthens

"The ETF inflows signals a structural shift: institutional capital is rotating back into crypto, driven by macroeconomic dislocations, favourable supply dynamics, and Bitcoin’s growing acceptance as a strategic asset class," said Rachael Lucas, Crypto Analyst at BTC Markets.

Bitcoin's appeal was further driven by a weakening U.S. dollar, persistent inflation concerns, and expectations of renewed Federal Reserve quantitative easing, BTC Markets' Lucas said. "Spot bitcoin ETFs now hold over US$103 billion in bitcoin, significantly reducing circulating supply and creating sustained upward price pressure.”

Read the full article here.

Yahoo! Finance: Bitcoin ETFs Experience US$936 Million Surge in Inflows Amid Safe Haven Trends

Analysts indicate that the interest in Bitcoin is driven by macroeconomic factors, including persistent inflation and a weakening U.S. dollar. Rachael Lucas, a crypto analyst at BTC Markets, noted that these ETF inflows signify a structural shift in which institutional capital is increasingly returning to crypto. She highlighted favourable supply dynamics and Bitcoin’s growing acceptance as a strategic asset class.

Read the full article here.

InvestorDaily: Bitcoin diverges from risk rotation, hitting key US$90k barrier

BTC Markets’ finance head, Charlie Sherry, added that bitcoin’s correlation with US equities has been driven by global liquidity up to this point.

“But with Trump’s trade policies reducing deficits and weakening the USD, we are currently seeing capital outflows from the US. This shift could see global liquidity increasingly driven by the rest of the world, which might allow BTC to break free from its US equity beta” Sherry said.

Read the full article here.

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The week ahead: economic events

Thursday, April 24th 

• Germany Ifo Business Climate Index
• United States Durable Goods Orders

Friday, April 25th

• United States Existing Home Sales
• United Kingdom Retail Sales MoM

Tuesday, April 29th

• Germany GfK Consumer Climate
• Spain GDP Growth Rate QoQ & GDP Growth Rate YoY

Wednesday, April 30th 

• United States Job Openings
• China NBS Manufacturing PMI & Caixin Manufacturing PMI
• France Inflation Rate, GDP Growth Rate QoQ & GDP Growth Rate YoY
• Germany Inflation Rate, GDP Growth Rate QoQ & GDP Growth Rate YoY
• Italy Inflation Rate, GDP Growth Rate QoQ & GDP Growth Rate YoY
• Euro Area GDP Growth Rate QoQ & GDP Growth Rate YoY
• United States Core PCE Price Index MoM, GDP Growth Rate QoQ, Personal Income & Personal Spending

Source: Trading economics

Market reflections

Australia: Australia braces for economic headwinds amid global trade tensions

Australia's economy is facing mounting challenges as global trade tensions escalate, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgrading the nation's 2025 growth forecast from 2.1% to 1.6% in its latest World Economic Outlook. The IMF cited unprecedented levels of uncertainty driven by US President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff policies as a key risk to global growth, noting that major policy shifts are upending the trade system and testing economic resilience worldwide.

Despite outperforming the US, which saw its 2025 growth projection slashed by nearly a full percentage point, Australia remains vulnerable to global volatility. The IMF also flagged concerns around stretched asset valuations and rising leverage, warning that shocks could be amplified by financial market fragility. While Treasurer Jim Chalmers was absent from high-stakes global meetings in Washington due to the federal election campaign, international finance leaders are reportedly eager to strike tariff exemption deals with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Australia’s inflation outlook has also shifted, now forecast at 2.5% for 2025, 0.8 percentage points lower than earlier estimates, but expected to climb again to 3.5% in 2026. GDP growth is likewise projected to rebound to 2.1% in 2026, offering a glimmer of recovery beyond the current turmoil. With equity markets still correcting and trade talks ongoing, the next few months will be critical in determining how Australia and the global economy navigate this turbulent period.

United States: US stocks fell as China warned allies, intensifying trade war concerns

US stock markets saw a decline on Monday amid escalating trade tensions, following China's warning to countries aligning with the United States in the ongoing tariff dispute. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 360 points on the day, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped 1.2% and 1.5%, respectively, as investors reacted to the overall situation. China's statement inevitably added a new layer of uncertainty to the market, which had already been unsettled by President Trump's criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the administration's aggressive trade policies. If the above scenario reoccurs, investors might seek refuge in safe-haven assets like gold, which has already reached a record high above US$3,400, while the US dollar weakens against major currencies.

China: Chinese investors unload US$2.3B in Hong Kong stocks amid easing trade tensions

Chinese investors sold nearly US$2.3 billion worth of Hong Kong stocks through the southbound Stock Connect program on April 23rd, marking the second-largest single-day outflow on record. This significant sell-off follows a period of strong inflows earlier in April, suggesting that investors are engaging in profit-taking as trade tensions between the US and China show signs of easing. Despite the substantial outflows, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 2.1% on the same day, indicating that the market remained resilient. Analysts believe that the recent sell-off is likely a strategic move by investors to lock in gains from the earlier rally, rather than a sign of renewed concerns over trade relations

Japan: Japan maintains cautious economic outlook amid tariff concerns

Japan's Finance Ministry has upheld its assessment of a "gradual recovery" across all 11 regions for the eighth consecutive quarter but cautioned about emerging downside risks from rising prices and US tariffs. Manufacturers, particularly in the Kanto and Tokai regions, reported concerns over increased costs due to US President Trump's sweeping tariffs, which are forcing some to raise prices on goods produced with Chinese imports. Retailers also noted that high prices are dampening consumer spending, with budget-conscious shoppers becoming more reluctant to make purchases. Despite these challenges, the ministry maintained its views on personal consumption, production, and employment. However, the persistent concerns from various sectors highlight the potential vulnerabilities in Japan's economic recovery, especially if trade tensions escalate further.

Canada: IMF cuts Canada’s growth outlook amid tariff fallout

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded Canada's economic growth forecast for 2025 to 1.4%, down from 2% in January, citing the adverse effects of US tariffs and escalating trade tensions. The IMF also projects Canada's growth to reach 1.6% in 2026, reflecting ongoing concerns about the country's economic resilience in the face of global trade disruptions.

The IMF's revised outlook highlights the significant impact of US trade policies on Canada's economy, particularly in sectors heavily reliant on exports to the US, such as automotive and energy. The report warns that continued trade conflicts could further dampen economic activity, increase financial market volatility, and tighten financial conditions, posing additional challenges for Canada's economic recovery.

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