Bitcoin cools as Ethereum inflows accelerate

TLDR

• Bitcoin coils for a breakout as price consolidates near US$114K
• Ethereum leads institutional inflows as altcoin momentum builds
• Solana returns to the spotlight, as staking ETF gains attention.
• Global markets falter as US jobs data disappoints and tariffs return
• Markets brace for US CPI, Fed signals and tariff fallout

Bitcoin spent the past week consolidating between US$111,000 and US$119,000, pausing after a short-lived rally. Institutional demand showed signs of cooling, with Bitcoin spot ETFs recording notable net outflows, while Ethereum ETFs gained further traction. Market sentiment shifted sharply late in the week following a disappointing U.S. jobs report, which sent equities and crypto lower and reignited rate-cut speculation. Meanwhile, Ethereum recovered to hold above key support levels, after a late correction following the US jobs news on Friday.

This mix of institutional repositioning, macroeconomic uncertainty, and selective sector interest underscores the cautious mood across markets. Traders are now watching key levels on both BTC and ETH, with volatility expected to remain elevated into next week’s U.S. CPI release.

The weekly trading stats as of Monday, August 4th at 10:00 AM AEST, based on data from TradingView in USD.

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Bitcoin coils for a breakout as price consolidates near US$114K

Bitcoin closed this week at just over US$114k and is currently navigating a sideways-to-corrective structure after failing to hold above US$119,000. Price currently sits around US$114,000, with technical indicators suggesting a neutral stance. On the 4-hour chart, BTC is hovering between the 50 EMA and 200 EMA, while the RSI rests near 45, indicating momentum has cooled but is not yet in oversold territory.

Support is well-defined between US$111K and US$108K, where long liquidation pressure is concentrated. Resistance is layered above US$118K, a zone that also aligns with significant short-stop clusters on the Coinglass liquidation heatmap. This creates a tightly coiled structure where a breakout or breakdown could trigger sharp liquidation events.

Until a decisive move occurs either way, BTC is likely to remain in consolidation. However, traders should stay alert to potential short squeeze risks if US$120K is breached, or long flush risks if support gives way.

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Global markets falter as US jobs data disappoints and tariffs return

The US labour market delivered a downturn surprise in July. Only 73,000 jobs were added, markedly below expectations, and unemployment rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. May and June data was also revised down by a total of around 258,000 jobs. This weakened report triggered global equity sell‑offs, falling US Treasury yields, and heightened pressure on the Federal Reserve to pivot toward rate cuts. The US Federal Reserve continues to navigate the delicate balance between inflation and unemployment. Short-term inflationary pressures are expected to build following the Trump administration’s actions in the wake of its self-imposed August 1st deadlines.

Trump signed sweeping new tariffs on 66 countries, including Canada, Taiwan and EU states, raising the average US tariff across affected nations to nearly 20%. These shocks worsened growth concerns globally, rattling trade sentiment.

In Australia, the AUD briefly rallied toward ~AUD/USD 0.6624 before retreating, reflecting cautious optimism around US‑China trade talks ahead of the August 12 tariff deadline. Local labour data in May had already softened, increasing rate‑cut expectations from the RBA in coming months.

Institutional risk appetite remained skewed: equities weakened amid geopolitical uncertainty, while crypto flows benefitted from re‑risking into alternative assets, especially via Ethereum ETFs.

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Ethereum leads institutional inflows as altcoin momentum builds

Ethereum continued to attract institutional capital, recording US$154 million in inflows this week and a record US$5.43 billion for July. However, following weak macroeconomic data, daily withdrawals reached US$152 million late last week. In contrast, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw US$643 million in outflows, highlighting a notable shift in investor preference. (Source: SoSoValue)

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BTC dominance edged down slightly to 62.3%, reflecting modest rotation into altcoins. Ethereum outperformed on price and sentiment, helped by steady ETF flows. After a short-term correction, ETH finished up at the week’s close, holding above the key psychological US$3,500 support level.

Solana also returned to the spotlight, with news of the REX-Osprey Solana + Staking ETF gaining attention. CoinShares moved to register a staking ETF entity, hinting at a broader institutional push beyond BTC and ETH.

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Altcoins saw a sharper sell off after the poor job numbers were released on Friday. If BTC dominance continues to stall, we may see expanding interest across Layer-1 tokens as capital searches for healthy buying opportunity in the altcoin markets - all subject to the ongoing reactions to the weakening macro environment.

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Closing thoughts

Markets are closely watching the upcoming U.S. CPI figure due out on 12th August, which may reinforce or challenge the growing rate-cut narrative. Other key releases this week include US jobless claims and consumer confidence data, both of which could sway Fed expectations. The Chinese balance of trade figures are due on Thursday this week, which could help shed some light on the international trading environment sentiment.

Also expect the news to be filled with country reactions to the imposition of tariffs last week. This could see some volatility in markets, especially as the Northern Hemisphere holiday season begins in earnest this week likely leading to lower market volumes.

As of the crypto markets, attention remains on ETF regulatory movement. The SEC's evolving position on Solana ETF applications and broader crypto guidance could create new price catalysts.

Technically, BTC must hold above US$111K to avoid a deeper correction. A move above US$120K could trigger short liquidations and upside volatility. For Ethereum, holding above US$3,500 and breaking above US$3,800 are key markers for continued strength.

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