Bitcoin eyes break out as Solana steals the spotlight

TLDR

• BTC whales resume accumulation after 3-month pause, signalling bullish intent
• BTC held 50-day SMA at US$102K, rejected twice at US$116.5K resistance
• ETH failed to break US$4,250, now testing weekly 20-SMA at US$3,850
• Solana ETF saw US$417M inflows, while BTC/ETH ETFs faced outflows
• Coinbase added US$1.6B BTC, now 9th-largest corporate holder
• Macro week packed with PMI, trade, and inflation data across US, China, Australia

Introduction

The crypto market closed the week in the red, shedding nearly 4% in total market cap to sit at US$3.68T. Fear is creeping back in, with the Index at 42, but under the hood, whales are stirring. Bitcoin dominance ticked up, and while BTC and ETH both faced resistance, the structure remains intact. Solana stole the show with its ETF debut, attracting serious institutional flow. Meanwhile, Coinbase’s latest BTC buy signals growing corporate conviction.

Traders are watching macro data closely this week, with China, the US, and Australia all dropping key economic indicators. The setup is ripe for volatility, and positioning will be everything.

Weekly trading stats as of Monday, November 3rd at 11:00 AM AEDT, based on data from TradingView in USD.

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Whales return to Bitcoin, but resistance remains strong

Bitcoin opened the week at US$114,599, rallied to US$116,400, but couldn’t hold the highs, closing at US$110,540 (-3.51%). The low came in at US$106,304, but price respected the 50-day SMA at US$102K, keeping bullish structure intact. Two failed attempts at US$116.5K resistance suggest supply overhead, but on-chain data shows whale wallets (>1K BTC) accumulating again, first time since July.

Coinbase added US$1.6B BTC to reserves, now holding over 9,000 BTC. That’s not retail, it’s institutional rotation. If BTC clears US$116.5K, next target is US$120K, with liquidity stacked above. Below US$106K, risk opens to US$102K and then US$98K.

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Ethereum remains rangebound and reactive

ETH opened at US$4,158, hit a high of US$4,253, and closed at US$3,906 (-6.06%). It’s holding the weekly 20-SMA at US$3,850, but a break below US$3,700 could trigger a liquidity sweep to US$3,550. Bulls need a clean break above US$4,000 to regain momentum.

ETH/BTC ratio dropped slightly, suggesting capital rotation into BTC and altcoins like SOL. Watch for ETF flows and macro data to drive short-term direction.

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Altcoin rotation begins as Solana ETF gains momentum

Solana’s ETF debut was explosive, US$417M in first-week inflows. That’s serious capital chasing momentum. SOL dropped 6.16% to US$187.71, but the ETF narrative is strong.

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XRP’s spot ETF, expected November 13, could bring US$5 to US$10B in fresh inflows. BNB and XRP both dipped, but rotation is favouring high-beta plays.

Altcoin Index sits at 28/100, not alt season yet, but rotation is underway.

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Institutional flows show Coinbase buying while FTX assets burns

Coinbase’s Q3 net income surged 475% to US$433M, and it’s now the 9th-largest corporate BTC holder. That’s a vote of confidence in BTC as a reserve asset.

Meanwhile, FTX creditors are receiving just 9% - 46% of their original crypto value due to 2022 price pegging, a painful reminder of timing risk.

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What to watch this week: Markets brace for data-heavy week

Bitcoin’s muted reaction to the US-China trade agreement highlights its shift from speculative asset to reserve-like store of value. This week’s macro calendar is stacked with data that could move crypto markets. Monday kicks off with China’s General Manufacturing PMI, a key signal for global risk sentiment. Tuesday brings the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Australia’s interest rate decision, both critical for gauging economic momentum and risk appetite.

Midweek, the US Job Openings report will feed into inflation expectations and Fed policy outlook. Thursday is heavy with the US ISM Services PMI, plus trade and rate updates from Australia and the UK.

Friday’s trade data from China and Germany could influence global flows, while Saturday’s Canadian unemployment and US consumer sentiment reports will shape forward-looking positioning. Sunday wraps with China’s inflation rate, a key input for monetary policy.

Expect volatility, strong data could fuel risk-on moves, while weak prints may trigger flight to safety.

Closing thoughts: Setup suggests breakout or breakdown ahead

BTC is coiling below resistance with whale support. ETH is rangebound but reactive. Altcoins are rotating, led by ETF flows. Macro data will set the tone. Watch US$116.5K on BTC and US$4,000 on ETH, breakouts above these levels could trigger momentum plays.

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