Bitcoin finds support; rebounds to US$104K

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Introduction

This week’s crypto markets showed signs of resilience despite macro headwinds. Bitcoin rebounded above US$104K after dipping below US$99K, recovering swiftly from nearly US$2B in liquidations. ETF flows have reversed, with both Bitcoin and Ethereum seeing net inflows, signalling renewed institutional interest. Ethereum’s price action remains subdued, but inflows and upcoming upgrades suggest long-term conviction.

Meanwhile, Solana and XRP continue to attract capital, pointing to a rotation into altcoins. Traders are now watching support levels and ETF approvals for signs of sustained momentum.

Check prices on the BTC Markets exchange.

State of crypto

• Bitcoin finds support and rebounds above US$104K despite headwinds
• Ethereum underperforms despite strong institutional inflows
• Solana ETFs attracted US$421M, defying broader market weakness
• XRP ETF filings fast-tracked, with US$5B to US$10B in inflows expected
• AU inflation rose to 3.2%, ruling out a rate cut and adding macro pressure

Bitcoin finds support and rebounds above US$104K despite headwinds

Bitcoin’s price action this week has been quite entertaining. After falling below US$99K and triggering US$2B in liquidations, BTC bounced back above US$104K, supported by a reversal in ETF flows and stabilising sentiment. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which had dropped to 23, has begun to recover as markets digest macro data and institutional flows.

ETF flows flipped the script. Bitcoin ETFs saw a daily net inflow of US$21.61M, with total net assets climbing to US$135.41B, now 6.7% of Bitcoin’s market cap. Ethereum followed suit, with US$24.06M in daily net inflows and total net assets reaching US$21.59B, representing 5.45% of ETH’s market cap. These inflows mark a shift in sentiment after weeks of sustained outflows and suggest institutions might be buying the dip.

The rebound in Bitcoin is particularly notable given the backdrop of macro uncertainty. The US government shutdown continues to drain liquidity, and inflation surprises have ruled out near-term rate cuts. Yet, Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim US$104K shows underlying strength and investor confidence in its long-term role as a reserve asset.

The volatility began last Thursday when the US Fed surprised markets with a hawkish tone despite a 0.25% rate cut and the end of quantitative tightening. Over US$600M in liquidations followed, revealing elevated leverage and fragility in positioning. 

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Ethereum underperforms despite strong inflows

Ethereum fared worse, falling 12% to US$3,347 and briefly touching US$3,000 before rebounding. ETH liquidations topped US$655M this week, outpacing Bitcoin. Despite progress on scaling and institutional staking, ETH’s underperformance suggests investors are unconvinced by the current roadmap.

Yet institutional interest in Ethereum remains strong. ETF inflows reached US$246M last week, outpacing Bitcoin. BitMine’s US$13.3B ETH treasury, representing 2.8% of supply, reinforces long-term conviction. The upcoming Fusaka upgrade on December 3 will increase gas limits fivefold and introduce PeerDAS, significantly reducing Layer 2 costs and improving scalability.

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Solana defies gravity with ETF momentum

Solana is defying gravity. Despite a 20% price drop to US$145, Solana ETFs attracted US$421M in inflows this week, led by Bitwise’s BSOL with US$199M. This marks the second-strongest ETF debut in crypto history. The rotation into SOL reflects a fresh narrative: yield-bearing altcoins with high throughput and staking appeal are gaining traction as institutional desks trim risk elsewhere. Western Union’s decision to shift US$150B in annual payments to Solana via the USDPT stablecoin adds real-world utility to the story.

Check SOL

XRP ETF filings fast-tracked for mid-November

Ripple’s XRP is also in the spotlight. ETF filings from Franklin Templeton and Bitwise have removed delaying amendments, fast-tracking approval for mid-November launches. Analysts expect US$5B to US$10B in first-month inflows, with XRP trading around US$2.34. The ETF race is heating up, and XRP’s infrastructure push, including its RLUSD stablecoin and enterprise integrations, is positioning it as a serious contender for institutional flows.

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Privacy coins rally on surveillance concerns

Privacy coins are having a moment. Zcash (ZEC) surged 22% to US$476, Dash (DASH) rallied 69% to US$147, and ZKsync (ZK) jumped 58% amid broader market weakness. The rally is driven by renewed interest in financial privacy, regulatory pressure, and technical upgrades. Zcash’s cross-chain privacy integration with Near Protocol and Dash’s adoption in emerging markets are turning heads.

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Crypto Fear & Greed Index

Source: Fear & Greed Index

BTC Markets in the news

SBS Australia: Bitcoin bear market & AI valuation fears

SBS Finance Editor Ricardo Gonçalves speaks with Rachael Lucas crypto analyst at BTC Markets, about the factors driving bitcoin’s latest plunge and how investor sentiment is shifting amid market volatility.

Listen to the full conversation on Special Broadcasting Service (SBS) Australia.

AFR: Bitcoin enters bear market as sentiment hits ‘extreme fear’

“Bitcoin’s plunge below $US100,000 isn’t just a price dip, it’s a signal that the market may be entering a new phase,” BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas said. 

“Traders are now watching the $US88,000 to $US95,000 range as a potential bottom, but with sentiment crashing into ‘extreme fear’ territory and the US dollar index surging past 100, macro headwinds are mounting.

Markets Media: Sandbox to Settlement: The State of the Crypto Ecosystem

At the Australia FIX Conference 2025 in Sydney, BTC Markets crypto analyst Rachael Lucas joined a panel of industry leaders to discuss the growing integration of decentralised finance into traditional markets.

During the session, Lucas said, “Larry Fink said earlier this month that in five years everything will be tokenised. We’ve moved on from educating the market to being asked ‘How can I integrate this into my business model?’ It’s well proven now that defi technology can cut costs in a big way by automating manual processes, and reduce the time it takes to close the books which is a big efficiency story.”

The Block: Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs post $800 million in combined outflows amid 'extreme fear' in market

BTC Markets crypto analyst Rachael Lucas said, “The fifth straight day of outflows marks a decisive shift in institutional positioning. This isn't just a pause; it's a recalibration.” 

She added, “If outflows persist, expect further price pressure, liquidity thins, volatility spikes, and technical levels come into play. Re-accumulation will require a shift in macro tone or a new narrative. Rate cuts, a weaker USD, or a resurgence in real-world asset tokenization could reignite interest.”

Announcements

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The week ahead: Economic events

Thursday, November 6th

• Australia Balance of Trade
• United Kingdom Interest Rate
• Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index

Friday, November 7th

• China Balance of Trade, Exports YoY, Imports YoY
• Germany Balance of Trade
• Canada Unemployment Rate
• United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Sunday, November 9th

• China Inflation Rate

Tuesday, November 11th

• Australia Consumer Confidence MoM. Business Confidence
• United Kingdom Unemployment Rate
• Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index

Source: Trading Economics

Market reflections

• United States: Fed cut rates by 25 bps, but Powell’s cautious tone kept yields and the dollar firm
• Europe: ECB left rates unchanged as GDP growth stalled, reinforcing its cautious stance
• China: Factory activity remained weak despite a tariff truce boosting market sentiment
• Japan: BoJ maintained its policy rate amid falling real wages and stable inflation
• Australia: RBA kept rates at 4.35%, prioritising inflation control over early cuts

Global markets remain in a phase of cautious recalibration. The US Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point cut reaffirmed its pivot toward supporting growth, though Chair Jerome Powell’s comments that a December move was “not guaranteed” tempered optimism. U.S. Treasury yields hovered near 4% as investors turned to safe-haven assets amid delayed government data releases.

In Europe, momentum remains subdued. The ECB kept rates on hold as GDP growth stalled and inflation showed limited progress toward its 2% target, reinforcing expectations of a prolonged pause in policy adjustments.

Across Asia, sentiment was mixed. China’s manufacturing PMI stayed in contraction territory, underscoring persistent weakness in factory output. However, the U.S.-China tariff truce lifted market confidence and supported regional equities. In Japan, the BoJ kept rates steady as inflation hovered near 3% and real wages declined for a ninth straight month.

In Australia, the RBA held rates at 4.35%, with Governor Michele Bullock confirming cuts weren’t discussed. The bank remains focused on curbing inflation, which it expects to rise faster than wages through 2027.

Taken together, the data shows that while the global tightening cycle has ended, recovery remains uneven. Central banks continue to prioritise stability over stimulus as markets adapt to a slower, more deliberate pace of normalisation.

Closing thoughts

ETF flows are beginning to tell a different story. After weeks of sustained outflows, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are now seeing net inflows, signalling a shift in institutional sentiment. Solana and XRP continue to attract fresh capital, reinforcing the rotation into altcoins as investors seek asymmetric upside.

Despite long-term holders offloading over 405,000 BTC worth US$43B in the past 30 days, Bitcoin has shown resilience, holding above US$100K and now rebounding above US$104K. This suggests healthy market rotation rather than panic selling.

Looking ahead, volatility is likely to persist as macro headwinds remain. Investors are watching for XRP ETF approval news on November 13, which could act as a major catalyst. Solana’s momentum may continue if inflows hold, while Ethereum needs to reclaim US$3,600 to avoid further downside.

Bitcoin’s next key support sits at US$92K, with resistance at US$108K. A sustained break above that level will require a clear catalyst and fresh liquidity. Sovereign interest in Bitcoin, particularly from France and Germany, could be a game changer if accumulation plans move forward.

Online safety: How to stay protected from threats and extortion

Online threats can take many forms, including messages or calls that use fear or intimidation to pressure you into sharing personal details or making payments. These often appear to come from trusted sources such as government agencies, police, or financial institutions.

Some may claim you owe money, face legal action, or risk exposure of private information unless you respond immediately. The goal is to create panic and push you to act before checking if the situation is real.

What to watch out for

• Unexpected messages or calls claiming you owe money or face legal trouble.
• Pressure to make immediate payments via cryptocurrency, gift cards, or other unusual methods.
• Requests for personal, financial, or account information.
• Mentions of police, immigration, or government involvement.
• Messages that sound overly urgent, aggressive, or threatening.

How to stay safe 

• End contact straight away. Hang up, delete the message, or block the sender.
• Never share personal details or make a payment without confirming the request.
• Verify any claims directly with the organisation using official contact details.
• Report the scam to authorities or Scamwatch.
• Secure your accounts immediately if you’ve shared information or made a payment.

Protect yourself and others. Learn more at scamwatch.gov.au.

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