Bitcoin hits new all-time high above US125K

TLDR

• Bitcoin sets an all-time high above US$125K amid thin weekend liquidity and short squeezes
• U.S. data delays and Fed uncertainty fuel expectations of further rate cuts
• ETF inflows stay strong with US$2.7B to Bitcoin and US$900M to Ethereum
• Bitcoin dominance rises to 59.3% as majors lead selective rotation
• Traders eye Powell’s remarks and FOMC minutes for policy direction this week

Introduction

Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of around US$125.7K this week, lifting the broader crypto market capitalisation to a record US$4.26T. Gains came during a quiet global data week as the U.S. government shutdown delayed key economic releases, including September’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. In the absence of official data, investors turned to private indicators pointing to a mild softening in U.S. labour demand, a trend that buoyed financial markets eager for additional rate cuts before year-end.

Weekly trading stats as of Monday, October 6th at 10:00 AM AEST, based on data from TradingView in USD.

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Bitcoin sets an all-time high above US$125K amid thin weekend liquidity and short squeezes

Bitcoin surged to a new record high of about US$125.7K this week, driven partly by a short squeeze as traders hit liquidation pockets during the low volumes typical of weekend trading. The asset later steadied to close around US$123.5K, maintaining its late-September breakout and setting a calm tone to start the week.

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin remains in an uptrend, with higher lows forming above US$118K and buyers defending short-term support at US$121.5K. RSI readings suggest overbought conditions that may cool recent momentum, but the broader structure stays bullish above the 200-day MA (~US$105K).

Liquidation data shows dense stop clusters between US$120K–122K and above US$125K, implying potential for both short squeezes and long flushes. Downside liquidity near US$115K remains a key defence zone, suggesting short-term consolidation before the next move higher. Broader sentiment, however, continues to hinge on the macro-outlook and the Federal Reserve’s next policy signals.

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U.S. data delays and Fed uncertainty fuel expectations of further rate cuts

The U.S. government shutdown delayed key economic data releases, forcing investors to rely on alternative indicators. The ADP employment report showed a 32,000 fall in private payrolls, while the Chicago Fed estimated unemployment near 4.3%. Over the weekend, Moody’s reported that 22 of 50 U.S. states were in recession, adding to signs of a slowing economy and increasing expectations of rate cuts later this year.Despite these signals, the US Federal Reserve maintained a cautious tone, keeping markets on edge. Global equities held firm as traders weighed weaker U.S. data against the potential for policy easing.

In Australia, the ABS monthly CPI indicator for August showed annual inflation rising to 3.0% from 2.8%, driven by persistent services costs. Analysts now see only an 8% chance of local rate cuts this year.

Overall, the macro backdrop remains balanced but supportive for digital assets, as investors favour measured positioning over speculative risk-taking. That steady tone has also been reflected in continued ETF inflows across Bitcoin and Ethereum.

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ETF inflows stay strong with US$2.7B to Bitcoin and US$900M to Ethereum

ETF activity continued to anchor sentiment last week, reinforcing institutional confidence in large-cap digital assets. According to CoinFlows, Bitcoin funds attracted about US$2.7B in inflows, while Ethereum ETFs added roughly US$900M. The steady participation suggests that institutions are broadening exposure beyond Bitcoin, even as overall market conditions remain cautious.

Bitcoin’s narrow trading range implies that accumulation is continuing, with institutions buying on dips rather than chasing momentum, a pattern that has historically marked early phases of sustained uptrends.

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Bitcoin dominance rises to 59.3% as majors lead selective rotation

Momentum from institutional flows extended into large-cap assets, lifting Bitcoin’s dominance to 59.3%, up from September lows near 57%. The move highlights an ongoing preference for major tokens amid broader market strength.

Among the top assets, Litecoin (+11.3%), Ethereum (+9.2%), and Solana (+8.6%) led weekly gains, supported by ETF optimism and rotation into higher-liquidity names. Sui (+8.9%) also advanced, while Hyperliquid (-2.1%) and Avalanche (-0.4%) lagged as traders took profits from earlier rallies.

The pattern signals selective rotation rather than a broad altcoin rally, with majors consolidating and setting the foundation for future capital flows into mid-cap projects once volatility eases.

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What to watch this week

Market focus now turns to the US Federal Reserve’s communication ahead of year-end. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver opening remarks this Friday at a banking conference in Washington, D.C., alongside the release of the FOMC minutes. Together, these will provide insight into the central bank’s policy direction and the potential timing of further rate cuts. Volatility may rise around these key events, especially as traders gauge how upcoming data releases could shape the Fed’s tone.

Closing thoughts

With Bitcoin consolidating between US$121K–125K, volatility may spike if price breaks beyond either range. A sustained move above US$125K could trigger short liquidations, while a dip below US$118K may prompt long unwinding.

A steadier macro tone and consistent ETF demand continue to support crypto’s medium-term outlook, even as traders navigate near-term ranges.

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