Bitcoin holds steady near US$110k despite weak jobs data

The soft US jobs report did create expectations for a more dovish US Federal Reserve, which is normally supportive for risk assets like Bitcoin. However, the market had already priced in some degree of policy easing. As I told The Block, institutional desks are also taking profits while ETF flows remain relatively flat. This combination has capped upside momentum, keeping Bitcoin consolidating in a tight range.

Bitcoin’s key support and resistance levels to watch

Currently, the key support is at US$110K. As long as Bitcoin holds that level, market structure remains constructive. Resistance sits at US$113.4K, with further levels at US$115.4K and US$117.1K. Breaking those barriers would suggest the market has absorbed recent selling pressure and is ready to retest the highs. These levels indicate we’re still in the consolidation phase of the cycle, with buyers stepping in on dips but sellers active near the top of the range.

Potential upside if the Fed signals a rate cut

If the US Fed signals a cut in the near term, it could provide the catalyst for Bitcoin to test above US$120K. In that scenario, upside targets in the US$125K–130K range become more realistic, as liquidity conditions would support further allocation into crypto assets.

On-chain and off-chain catalysts shaping the next move

Beyond the FOMC, we’re tracking two categories of catalysts, on-chain and off-chain. On-chain, stablecoin supply is near record highs, creating dry powder for potential rallies, while exchange balances for Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to decline, easing near-term selling pressure. Off-chain, regulatory developments such as the SEC and CFTC’s push for harmonised frameworks, along with ETF flow data, remain key sentiment drivers. Together, these factors will determine whether Bitcoin can move beyond its current consolidation phase.

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