Bitcoin in June 2025: Holding ground or losing steam?

As we hit mid-year, Bitcoin is trading around US$105,800 after pulling back slightly from a recent peak near US$112,000. In comments to The Block, I noted that while the price action has cooled off in the short term, the broader trend remains intact. Since early in the second quarter, Bitcoin has steadily climbed out of a long-term descending pattern, reclaiming key psychological and technical levels at US$95,000 and US$100,000.

From a charting perspective, the market appears to be consolidating just below resistance at US$112,000. Indicators like the RSI and MACD are showing signs that the strong bullish momentum is starting to wane, at least temporarily. Support looks reasonably firm at around US$103,000, with a deeper safety net closer to US$97,600.

Momentum cools, but outlook holds

Investor sentiment, for now, is cautious. Traders are treading carefully, unsure whether this is the start of a short-term top or simply a pause before the next leg higher. That said, the longer-term outlook still leans optimistic. There’s growing conviction among analysts and market participants that we could be in the early stages of a new super cycle. Institutional interest continues to build, and the narrative around Bitcoin is shifting again, this time toward its role as a serious macroeconomic asset.

Volatility has picked up again, driven largely by broader economic uncertainty. Central bank decisions, labour market data, and risk sentiment in traditional markets are increasingly driving crypto price moves. Bitcoin’s correlation with global financial conditions is becoming more pronounced, and that’s changing how traders and investors position themselves.

Looking ahead, there are two plausible scenarios on the table. If Bitcoin can hold above the US$103,000 to US$105,000 range, there’s room for a renewed push toward $115,000. That would suggest the market is absorbing recent gains and preparing for another rally. On the other hand, a break below US$103,000 could open the door to a deeper correction, with price targets in the US$93,000 to US$97,000 range. That wouldn’t necessarily disrupt the broader uptrend, but it would confirm that the market needs more time before resuming its climb.

Macro moves now matter more

Structurally, the Bitcoin market has continued to evolve. Institutional participation is no longer a future hope, it’s here. Reports suggest a few corporates and even central banks are exploring Bitcoin not as a speculative play, but as a treasury asset. Retail activity remains present, but the cycles are increasingly being defined by institutional behaviour and macroeconomic factors. Corrections are sharper but also more orderly, and recoveries are typically driven by data, not hype.

The narrative has also shifted. Bitcoin is no longer just “digital gold.” It’s being positioned as a strategic hedge, one that sits alongside commodities and currency exposures in a diversified macro portfolio. That shift has consequences, it’s tied Bitcoin more closely to traditional financial markets, and it's made the asset more sensitive to economic data, central bank commentary, and geopolitical risk.

So where are we right now? In short: Bitcoin is at a technical and psychological pivot point. While the short-term tone is uncertain, the underlying structure still looks supportive. Whether this moment leads to a breakout or a pullback will depend on both price action and macro sentiment in the days ahead.

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