Bitcoin markets unmoved as Federal Reserve projects rate cuts

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Announcements

Exclusive crypto tax discounts now available for BTC Markets users

BTC Markets has once again partnered with top crypto tax software providers - Crypto Tax Calculator, Koinly, and Syla - to offer exclusive discounts and make tax time smoother for our users.

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Introducing the new BTC Markets experience – Now in Beta

We’re pleased to share that the all-new BTC Markets platform is now live in beta.

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The Australian Financial Review Women in Leadership Awards 2025

We’re proud to see our CEO, Caroline Bowler, included as a finalist in The Australian Financial Review Women in Leadership Awards for Tech and Telco.

This recognition highlights Caroline’s ongoing dedication to financial innovation and advancing blockchain technology in Australia.

Congratulations also to Angela Gadaev, the winner in this category, a well-deserved honour.

At BTC Markets, we believe representation matters, and celebrating leaders like Caroline and Angela helps spotlight the people driving Australia’s tech sector forward. We’re honoured to be part of this important conversation.

Final reminder: Meld Gold (MCAU) delisting notice

BTC Markets will be delisting Meld Gold (MCAU) from its trading platform. From 10:00am (AEST) on June 24, 2025, you will no longer be able to buy, sell or deposit MCAU via BTC Markets.

Read more 

State of crypto

• Bitcoin markets unmoved as Federal Reserve projects rate cuts
• Strategy buys US$1B worth of Bitcoin as geopolitical jitters hit crypto
• US Senate clears pivotal stablecoin bill in a landmark moment for crypto
• JPMorgan deepens crypto ties with new “deposit token” JPMD
• US dollar dominance slips as trade policy and rate-cut expectations weigh heavy

Bitcoin markets unmoved as Federal Reserve projects rate cuts

Bitcoin remained largely unmoved following the US Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%, with the world’s leading cryptocurrency hovering around US$104,600. Despite mounting macroeconomic uncertainty and mixed inflation signals, the crypto market has shown relative calm. According to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, two rate cuts are likely before the end of 2025, but he cautioned that persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions - particularly surrounding potential new tariffs under Trump and instability in certain regions - could complicate the outlook. While traditional markets responded with mild optimism, Bitcoin's sideways action suggests investors are still waiting for a clearer directional cue. With ETF flows slowing, traders appear focused on whether macro catalysts or institutional buying will be enough to ignite the next move upward.

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Strategy buys US$1B worth of Bitcoin as geopolitical jitters hit crypto

Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, acquired an additional 10,100 BTC for US$1 billion last week at an average price of US$104,080 per coin, amid heightened market pressure following geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The purchase, which was made just as Bitcoin dipped to around US$103,639, brings Strategy’s total holdings to 592,100 BTC - worth approximately US$41.8 billion - and with an average cost basis of US$70,666 for each one, further cementing its position as the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin.

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US Senate clears pivotal stablecoin bill in a landmark moment for crypto

The US Senate has passed the bipartisan GENIUS Act (68–30), establishing the country's first federal regulatory framework for USD-backed stablecoins. The legislation requires issuers to fully back tokens with liquid reserves (dollars or short-term Treasuries). It also mandates a monthly public disclosure of those assets, and annual audits for large issuers. Proponents say this legitimises stablecoins as reliable payment rails and could expand their role in digital finance, while critics raise concerns about potential systemic risk and loopholes - such as the president’s exemption from ownership restrictions - pending further debate in the House this summer.

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JPMorgan deepens crypto ties with new “deposit token” JPMD

JPMorgan is launching JPMD, a bank-issued digital deposit token that mirrors the functionality of a stablecoin but is fully integrated within existing banking systems. Unlike traditional stablecoins backed by separate reserves, JPMD is directly tied to commercial bank deposits, offering clients on-chain access to bank-standard funds. The move signals increasing institutional confidence in tokenised finance and bridges the gap between legacy banking and blockchain-based payment rails.

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US dollar dominance slips as trade policy and rate-cut expectations weigh heavy

The US dollar has slumped to its weakest level in over three years - down nearly 10% this year - driven by shifting trade policies under President Trump and growing anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts . This rapid depreciation has bolstered safe-haven currencies like the euro, Swiss franc, and yen, while Scandinavian and several Asian currencies have also surged, creating challenges for central banks managing inflation and growth dynamics. Economists warn that these shifts in currency markets could have far-reaching implications, affecting global trade flows, pricing, and investment strategies amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

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Crypto Fear & Greed Index

Source: Fear & Greed Index

BTC Markets in the news

AFR: Bitcoin showing ‘resilience’ amid Middle East tensions

In comments to the Australian Financial Review, BTC Markets’ Head of Finance Charlie Sherry said Bitcoin’s response to the Iran–Israel conflict underscores its structural strength. Despite briefly dipping to around US$103,000, BTC has stabilised above key levels. With over US$5.2 billion in ETF inflows and elevated bitcoin dominance, Charlie said the data suggests investors are staying in the market.

Read the full article.

The Block: Bitcoin edges over $106,000 amid 'optimistic but measured' trader sentiment

Speaking to The Block, BTC Markets crypto analyst Rachael Lucas said Bitcoin’s recent rebound highlights its role as a hedge during global uncertainty. She noted that BTC regained momentum after briefly falling 4%, with sentiment now “optimistic but measured.”

Read the full article.

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The week ahead: economic events

Thursday, June 19th

• United States Fed Fund Interest Rate, FOMC Economic Projections & Press Conference
• United Kingdom Interest Rate

Friday, June 20th

• Japan Inflation Rate
• United Kingdom Retail Sales MoM

Monday, June 23rd

• Germany Manufacturing PMI
• United Kingdom Manufacturing PMI & Services PMI 

Tuesday, June 24th 

• United States Existing Home Sales
• Germany Business Climate Index
• Canada Inflation Rate

Source: Trading economics

Market reflections

• Australia: Australia grapples with sluggish growth despite government’s “resilience” focus
• United States: US budget deal revives fiscal stimulus while interest rates stay elevated
• China: China posts steady economic growth in May as industrial and consumer activity strengthen
• Japan: Bank of Japan slows bond‑buying taper, keeps policy rate at -0.5%
• Canada: Canada braces for growth rebound as tariff fears recede

Australia: Australia grapples with sluggish growth despite government’s “resilience” focus

Australia’s economic outlook is dimming, with analysts warning that GDP growth is drifting toward 1-2% - well below its potential amid persistent headwinds from trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions. The re-elected government, however, is doubling down on resilience, with Treasury initiatives aimed at enhancing local supply chains, boosting national infrastructure, and cushioning the economy against external shocks.

Despite short-term stagnation, policymakers see cause for cautious optimism. Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers emphasised the importance of resilience-building post-election, while economic strategies now involve targeted fiscal support and investment in domestic capacity. Australia continues to navigate a delicate balance between managing weaker growth and preparing for future global disruptions.

United States: US budget deal revives fiscal stimulus while interest rates stay elevated

The recently enacted US “One Big Beautiful Bill” injects roughly US$1 trillion into domestic infrastructure, climate, and healthcare initiatives, marking a rare bipartisan achievement in federal spending. Implied tax hikes on high earners and corporations make it the largest investment since the Covid-19 stimulus, aiming to bolster long‑term growth - but economists at Oxford warn that the additional debt financing could stretch federal budgets and complicate the Federal Reserve’s efforts to tame inflation without stifling momentum.

China: China posts steady economic growth in May as industrial and consumer activity strengthen

China’s economy showed stable momentum in May, with industrial output up 5.8% year-on-year and retail sales rising 6.4%, signaling resilience amid both global and local headwinds. Growth was supported by the recovery of the manufacturing sector, strength in services like finance and tech, and improved domestic consumption, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

Japan: Bank of Japan slows bond‑buying taper, keeps policy rate at -0.5%

Japan's central bank decided Friday to slow the pace of its bond‑buying reduction while maintaining its policy rate at -0.5%, signaling a cautious approach amid uncertainties over inflation and global growth. The Bank of Japan noted that while economic activity is gradually recovering, risks from international trade tensions and currency fluctuations warrant a more measured adjustment in monetary policy. The shift reflects a delicate balancing act: reducing stimulus without disrupting fragile growth, a task that puts Japanese policymakers firmly in the "wait-and-see" camp.

Canada: Canada braces for growth rebound as tariff fears recede

Canada’s economic outlook is turning more positive as recent easing of U.S. trade tensions provides relief for exporters and boosts investor sentiment. Despite earlier concerns of slowed output and rising unemployment linked to tariff threats, the rebound in overseas demand, especially from the easing of US-China tariff uncertainties, has improved trade momentum. The central bank and federal policymakers are now closely watching this improving landscape, shifting their focus toward sustaining growth and managing inflation with a cautiously optimistic stance.

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