Bitcoin pushes higher as ETF demand accelerates

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Welcome back to the first weekly crypto wrap of 2026. We hope you had a well-earned break and are ready to dive into the latest developments across crypto and digital assets. Let’s get started.

Introduction

Crypto markets strengthened this week as macro conditions eased, institutional inflows accelerated, and network activity across major chains hit new milestones. Bitcoin’s rally above key resistance levels set the tone, while stablecoins, regulation, and European banking developments rounded out a busy week for the sector.

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State of crypto

• Bitcoin pushes higher as ETF demand accelerates
• US regulatory update: Clarity Act advances with surveillance concerns
• Ethereum network activity surges following Fusaka upgrade
• Corporate accumulation continues to tighten Bitcoin and Ethereum supply
• Stablecoin infrastructure accelerates across global markets

Bitcoin pushes higher as ETF demand accelerates

Bitcoin climbed sharply during the week, supported by strong inflows into spot ETFs and cooling inflation data. December CPI printed at 2.7% year on year, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady through Q1. ETF inflows reached their strongest level in months, led by major issuers and signalling a renewed wave of institutional participation. The move triggered significant short liquidations and returned BTC to the upper end of its multiweek trading range.

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US regulatory update: Clarity Act advances with surveillance concerns

The US Senate Banking Committee introduced its Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, outlining jurisdictional boundaries for the SEC and CFTC and proposing an “ancillary asset” category for tokenised networks. Industry analysts raised concerns about Treasury's proposed authority, particularly the ability to freeze transactions for 30 days without a court order. With more than 130 amendments filed, the bill remains highly contested as lawmakers navigate ethics requirements and political sensitivities.

US regulatory update: new market structure bill targets clarity for major tokens

Alongside the Clarity Act, the Senate Banking Committee released a draft crypto market structure bill proposing that major network tokens such as XRP, Solana, Dogecoin, Litecoin, Hedera, and Chainlink could be exempt from SEC securities rules if they underpin ETFs listed by January 1, 2026.

The bill classifies network tokens as commodities rather than securities and allows activity based rewards for stablecoins while banning passive yield products. Markup is scheduled for January 15, with passage odds estimated at 5060%. Together, these proposals suggest a shift toward a clearer market structure designed to bring digital assets into a more formal regulatory perimeter without suppressing innovation.

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A new macro wildcard emerges as the Fed faces political pressure

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell disclosed that the Department of Justice had issued subpoenas tied to the US$2.5 billion renovation of the Fed’s headquarters. Powell described the move as political retaliation for policy decisions guided by economic evidence rather than political pressure. Markets reacted quickly: the US dollar weakened, gold set a fresh record high, and Bitcoin briefly rose, before retracing.

Eleven global central banks issued a joint statement supporting the Fed’s independence, warning that political interference could destabilise global markets. For crypto, this introduces a new macro variable: US Fed independence risk, transmitted through dollar credibility, termpremium effects, and stress in financial plumbing. The market is now weighing how political influence over monetary policy could impact asset flows, liquidity conditions, and risk appetite.

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Corporate accumulation continues to tighten Bitcoin and Ethereum supply

Corporate demand for digital assets strengthened again this week, with public and private companies adding 260,000 BTC over six months compared with 82,000 BTC mined, lifting total corporate holdings to 1.11 million BTC. Strategy remained the largest buyer after acquiring another 13,627 BTC for US$1.25 billion, bringing its total to 687,410 BTC, even as its share price sits 60 percent below its July 2025 peak. Ethereum saw similar momentum, with Bitmine increasing its holdings to 4.17 million ETH worth US$14 billion, including 1.26 million ETH staked ahead of its planned validator network launch in 2026. With ETF inflows and corporate treasuries absorbing an outsized share of new supply across both assets, market tightness continues to build, heightening the potential for supplydriven price pressure if longterm holder selling eases.

Ethereum network activity surges following Fusaka upgrade

Ethereum posted some of its strongest network metrics in years. The chain added 393,600 new wallets in a single day, with overall nonempty wallets rising to 172.9 million. Stablecoin settlement reached record highs and daily transaction counts continued their upward trend. ETH rose above US$3,400 during the week with further ETF inflows supporting price momentum. Market forecasts remain constructive as the ecosystem benefits from lower L2 costs and increased application activity.

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Onchain trends show whales buying dips as smaller wallets take profits

Onchain data revealed that larger holders accumulated 56,000 BTC since mid-December, while smaller wallets realised profits above US$93,000. Analysts see a potential cycle bottom forming in the US$38,000 to US$50,000 range with a peak near US$126,000 based on current supply and liquidity trends. The divergence between whale accumulation and retail profit-taking suggests early positioning for higher volatility later in the quarter.

Stablecoin infrastructure accelerates across global markets

Stablecoin integration gained momentum worldwide. Pakistan advanced its plans to adopt the USD1 stablecoin for crossborder remittances, targeting efficiency gains across more than US$30 billion in annual flows. Ripple secured preliminary EMI authorisation in Luxembourg, enabling EUwide payment services. Visa expanded its blockchain settlement rails by integrating BVNK into Visa Direct, while Germany’s DZ Bank launched its retail crypto trading platform under the MiCA framework.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index

Source: Fear & Greed Index

As of 11am on 15 January 2026, price action on the BTC Markets exchange shows a broadly positive week across major assets. Bitcoin led the market with a 6.41% weekly gain, closing at AU$144,864.55, while Ethereum outperformed, rising 8.4% to AU$5,020.37. XRP saw more modest movement, finishing at AU$3.1986, up 0.90% over the week. The broader market backdrop remains strong, with total crypto market capitalisation now at US$3.25 trillion, supported by a still dominant Bitcoin market share of 59.60%, signalling continued investor confidence in BTC even as altcoins show signs of renewed momentum.

BTC Markets in the news

AFR: Bitcoin surges toward $US100,000 on favourable shifts

BTC Markets head of finance Charlie Sherry says a 4-5 per cent intraday bounce in bitcoin reflects improving macro conditions, renewed institutional flows and constructive regulatory developments.

The rally led to the cryptocurrency briefly trading above $US96,000 before easing to $US95,500, breaking out of a $US92,000-$US94,000 range.

“The rally extends from the strong start to 2026 for digital assets, supported by was driven by a macroeconomic developments, institutional flows, and regulatory signals,” Sherry said.

The Block: Spot XRP ETFs see first net outflows since debut, worth $41 million

"The first net outflows from U.S. spot XRP ETFs represent a notable shift," BTC Markets Crypto Analyst Rachael Lucas told The Block. "However, the scale is modest, less than 3% of cumulative inflows since launch."

Lucas said the outflows appear to be a result of profit-taking after XRP recently rallied to $2.40 from $1.80 in a week, combined with a broader market pullback.

Announcements

Introducing AI News & Insights

We’ve launched AI News & Insights, a new tool designed to bring you fast, reliable updates on the latest market trends and events. Our AI engine scans trusted sources, summarises key developments, and delivers clear insights, all in one place. You can access AI News & Insights from the Explore section on the Simple Trade platform.

Explore AI News & Insights

Older Australians lead the next capital wave

Our latest Investor Study Report 2025 reveals a major shift in Australia’s crypto market. Investors aged 60 and over recorded a 723% increase in average initial deposits, with daily trading activity up 93% over the financial year.

Read the Investor Study Report 

The week ahead: Economic events

Thursday, January 15th

• United Kingdom Monthly GDP MoM
• Germany Full Year GDP Growth

Monday, January 19th

• China GDP Annual Growth Rate, Industrial Production, Retail Sales YoY
• Canada Inflation Rate

Tuesday, January 20th

• United Kingdom Unemployment Rate
• Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index

Wednesday, January 21st

• United Kingdom Inflation Rate

Source: Trading Economics

Market reflections

• United States: Dollar steadied as markets weighed mixed labour data and awaited key jobs reporting
• Europe: Euro-zone investor morale rose unexpectedly at the start of 2026, though sentiment remained subdued
• China: Consumer inflation hit a near 3-year high while services growth slowed to a six-month low
• Japan: Yen weakened sharply to its weakest since mid-2024 as markets digested geopolitical jitters and policy risks
• Australia: RBA deputy reiterated inflation remains too high, keeping central bank options open

Markets opened the year cautiously as investors weighed early economic signals and central bank messaging. In the United States, the dollar steadied as mixed labour data kept expectations for Federal Reserve policy finely balanced, with markets awaiting clearer direction from upcoming inflation and jobs releases.

In Europe, investor morale improved more than expected at the start of 2026, signalling tentative confidence despite ongoing weakness in core economies such as Germany. The pickup suggested stabilisation rather than a decisive shift in growth momentum.

China’s data pointed to uneven conditions. Consumer inflation reached a near three-year high, while slower services activity highlighted continued softness in broader demand, reinforcing uncertainty around the pace of recovery.

Japan saw renewed currency pressure as the yen weakened to levels last seen in mid-2024. The move reflected a mix of global risk concerns and lingering questions around the Bank of Japan’s policy path.

In Australia, policymakers maintained a cautious stance. The Reserve Bank reiterated that inflation remains too high, keeping policy options open as it monitors price dynamics early in the year.

Taken together, the updates suggest a measured start to the year, with policy clarity still in focus across major economies.

Final thoughts

Momentum remains constructive across both Bitcoin and the broader market, with institutional flows, regulatory developments, and strengthening network fundamentals driving sentiment. With macro uncertainty easing and supply-side pressure building in several assets, the market enters the coming week with favourable tailwinds and growing anticipation of further volatility.

Online safety: How to recognise risky investment offers

Investment offers online can appear legitimate, especially when they use polished marketing, familiar company names, or convincing testimonials. Some offers promise unusually high returns or use urgent language to encourage quick decisions. These tactics are designed to influence you before you have time to verify the details.

You may encounter fake websites, misleading news articles, or fabricated performance data. In some cases, small initial withdrawals are allowed to build trust, but access to your full balance may be blocked later. These behaviours can be difficult to spot without careful checking.

What to watch out for

• Online ads or news stories that claim a celebrity endorses an investment.
• Friends, online contacts, or romantic interests suddenly encouraging you to invest.
• Websites, emails, or social media content featuring glowing testimonials or guaranteed returns.
• High-pressure messages urging immediate action to avoid “missing out.”
• Advisers or platforms that say they do not need an Australian Financial Services (AFS) licence.

How to stay safe

• Take your time and avoid making fast decisions based on urgency.
• Check ASIC’s Moneysmart investor alert list and the IOSCO alerts portal.
• Verify company details and contact information through official sources.
• Deal only with advisers who hold an Australian Financial Services (AFS) licence.
• Be cautious of pre-IPO offers or investments that appear unusually attractive.

Learn more at scamwatch.gov.au.

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