Bitcoin rebounds above US$114.5K as macro shifts renew risk appetite

TLDR

• Bitcoin rebounds above US$114.5K as macro shifts renew risk appetite
• Momentum rebuilds after majors defend key support zone
• Markets recalibrate as US Fed pivot supports Bitcoin recovery
• Crypto market cap rebounds to US$3.88T as ETF flows support price action

Introduction

Bitcoin closed the week on a firmer footing, holding above US$114.5K after a sharp mid-month correction and steady recovery. Trading volumes have also shown early signs of recovery, suggesting active participation from both sides of the market. The bounce comes as investors digest a shifting macro landscape, with expectations of a softer US Federal Reserve stance, cooling bond yields, and renewed attention on liquidity-sensitive assets. Major crypto ETFs continue to steer capital flows, while wider macro signals remain mixed across regions. This week, traders are watching whether Bitcoin can sustain momentum into key resistance or whether consolidation returns after the latest rebound.

Weekly trading stats as of Monday, October 27th at 10:00 AM AEDT, based on data from TradingView in USD.

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Momentum rebuilds after majors defend key support zone

Bitcoin spent most of the week rebuilding momentum after defending support near US$109K to US$112K. The 4-hour chart shows early signs of bullish activity, with the price back above the short-term 12/26 EMAs, with RSI nearing overbought territory, indicating stronger activity seems to be returning.

On the daily timeframe, a broader consolidation remains in play below resistance at US$118K to US$120K. The 50-day MA near US$114.2K has now been reclaimed, while the 200-day MA around US$108.7K continues to act as longer-term structural support.

Liquidation heatmap data highlights a concentration of short-position stops above US$115K to US$117K, suggesting a potential short-squeeze if buyers remain active. However, significant long-position liquidity sits beneath US$111K provides a reminder that a pullback could still force volatility lower.

For traders, the next decisive move seems likely to depend on whether Bitcoin can push beyond the current liquidity pocket and challenge resistance again.

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Markets recalibrate as US Fed pivot supports Bitcoin recovery

Markets are adjusting to a mildly more supportive macro backdrop, despite the US government remaining in shutdown, making official economic data elusive. Bond yields have eased from recent highs, with a Fed pivot seeming to point towards lower rates, assisted by a recent slight easing in inflation.

All eyes will be on the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, 29th October (US time) when the next interest rate decision will be made. Gold’s recent weakness, with last week’s snap fall of 5% (its largest drop in 5 years) from the all-time high of US$4.38Kmay show a possible rotation in risk appetite that may favour Bitcoin and other liquidity-aligned assets.

Meanwhile, equities remain cautious as global growth shows some signs of slowing, but not yet to the point of tipping sentiment over.

Regulatory headlines have also moved the conversation. The US nomination of a crypto-friendly CFTC chair has captured attention, while the EU introduced sanctions against a Russian-linked stablecoin, a reminder that policy trajectories can diverge sharply by region.

In Australia, the RBA’s next move is still finely balanced, with inflation trending lower but some wage pressure lingering.

ETF flows continue to guide institutional positioning. Larger outflows earlier this month has now reversed, with inflows supporting Bitcoin’s recovery and helping stabilise sentiment. If this tailwind persists, market conditions could strengthen into November.

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Crypto market cap rebounds to US$3.88T as ETF flows support price action

Total crypto market capitalisation stands near US$3.88T, recovering from the US$3.53T October low. Market breadth is showing signs of improvement, although still selective. The majors like BTC and ETH are consolidating, while some altcoins seem to be attracting some renewed interest.

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Weekly ETF data reflected this split. Sosovalue reports Bitcoin saw roughly US$446M net inflows last week, ahead of Ethereum, which showed a $93.6m net outflow. This strength sees BTC dominance anchored around 59.5%, although a slight easing suggests capital is beginning to rotate into major altcoins. Ethereum has benefited from deeper liquidity, while Solana remains a focal point amid ongoing ETF speculation and stronger Treasury allocations discussed in earlier newsletters.

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In the top-20, Hyperliquid (HYPE) led with gains above 25%, ahead of a rumoured major exchange listing, while Bitcoin Cash, Hedera, Solana, and Chainlink also posted strong weekly performances.

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What to watch this week

The macro calendar is light, but US GDP revisions, European inflation updates, and commentary from central bank officials will guide expectations heading into November. This may also include volatility surrounding the meeting between President Trump and President Xi on 30th October, which may provide further clarity on US-China trade relations and the ongoing tariffs. Locally, Australian economic confidence figures and housing data will help shape the RBA debate.

On-chain, traders are watching Bitcoin’s approach to the US$118K to US$120K resistance, where rejections have been common. A clean break could invite a wave of stop-clearing upside. In altcoins, focus stays on whether ETH and SOL can build on recent gains without Bitcoin needing to lead every move. With liquidity layered both above and below current BTC price levels, volatility may pick up if either side becomes more aggressive.

Closing thoughts 

The crypto market enters the week with a steadier footing and cautious optimism. Bitcoin seems to have absorbed recent volatility, and altcoins are beginning to stir as liquidity conditions improve.

To stay ahead of every move, make sure you’re tracking the market with real-time charts, orderbook insights, and secure trading tools on BTC Markets. Follow our blog and LinkedIn for ongoing research and expert commentary.

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