Bitcoin rebounds above US$90K after volatile fortnight

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Introduction

Regulations

Australia’s new digital asset laws: What it means for you

The Albanese Government has introduced the Corporations Amendment (Digital Assets Framework) Bill 2025, a landmark reform to regulate digital asset platforms and tokenised custody services.

For the first time, businesses holding crypto or tokenised assets on behalf of clients must operate under the Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL) regime. This means strict obligations around transparency, governance, risk controls, and consumer protection, like traditional financial services.

The legislation aims to close regulatory gaps exposed by global exchange failures, while fostering innovation that could unlock up to $24 billion in annual productivity gains. Smaller platforms with minimal holdings will be exempt, but major exchanges like BTC Markets will fully comply with its obligations.

For clients, this translates to stronger safeguards, clearer disclosures, and greater confidence in Australia’s digital asset market. These reforms position Australia as a leader in secure, innovative finance.

Check prices on the BTC Markets exchange.

State of crypto

• Australia’s new digital asset laws: What it means for you
• Fed cut odds above 80% on prediction markets, risk appetite improves
• Bitcoin rebounds above US$90,000 after volatile fortnight
• XRP ETFs sprint ahead, pulling in US$587 million in 10 trading sessions
• Solana ETFs log 21-day inflow streak, US$621 million total
• Texas allocates US$10 million to Bitcoin reserves via Blackrock’s IBIT
• S&P downgrades Tether stability to weak, reserves under scrutiny

Bitcoin steadies as US Fed rate cut odds rise 

Bitcoin clawed above US$90,000 this week after a volatile fortnight, helped by improving risk sentiment and prediction markets pricing a high chance of a December US Fed rate cut. Ethereum held near US$3,000, while Solana traded around US$136 to US$143 with persistent ETF inflows despite price softness.

A key macro driver was the sharp repricing of Fed expectations, with Kalshi and Polymarket odds pointing to more than an 80% probability of a 25 bp cut in December. Markets also reacted to growing chatter that Kevin Hassett is the frontrunner to replace Jerome Powell in 2026, a candidate viewed as more dovish and notably crypto friendly.

Texas makes historic Bitcoin treasury allocation worth US$10 million

Texas has become the first US state to add Bitcoin to its treasury, allocating US$10 million via BlackRock’s IBIT. The state plans to build a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and eventually move to self-custody. This milestone validates Bitcoin’s role in public finance and could inspire similar moves by other states seeking diversification and inflation hedges.

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Crypto ETF flows show resilience despite volatility

Institutional flows remain a key driver of crypto markets. ETFs focused on blue-chip altcoins are attracting significant capital, signalling confidence in long-term fundamentals even as spot prices fluctuate. These flows highlight the growing role of regulated products in shaping liquidity and investor sentiment.

XRP ETFs sprint ahead, pulling in US$587 million in 10 trading sessions

XRP ETFs have surged in popularity, pulling in approximately US$587 million within just ten trading sessions. This rapid uptake reflects strong institutional interest, driven by Ripple’s banking partnerships and the narrative around cross-border payments. For investors, this trend underscores the appeal of utility-focused assets.

Check XRP

Solana ETF streak defies price weakness

Solana ETFs have logged an unprecedented 21-day streak of positive inflows, totalling US$621 million. What’s notable is that these flows persisted even as SOL’s price fell about 29% from late October highs. Institutions appear to be betting on network fundamentals rather than short-term price action.

Check SOL

Tether (USDT) downgraded as stability concerns rise over reserve composition

S&P has cut Tether’s stability score to “weak”, citing increased Bitcoin exposure in reserves, around 5.6%, and ongoing disclosure gaps. While Tether maintains its peg and holds a large share of US Treasuries, the downgrade raises questions about collateral quality. Market participants will watch closely for any ripple effects if volatility spikes.

Check USDT

MSCI’s move signals maturity for digital assets

MicroStrategy’s equity premium has narrowed as MSCI considers excluding “digital asset treasury” firms from major indices, a shift toward clearer classification standards. While this could prompt passive outflows and challenge leveraged Bitcoin strategies, it’s a net positive for the crypto ecosystem. Transparent rules reduce uncertainty for issuers and investors, aligning equity benchmarks with predictable fundamentals. This evolution marks the end of the “everything is adoption” phase and the start of a more disciplined framework, strengthening institutional confidence and paving the way for sustainable growth in digital assets.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index

Source: Fear & Greed Index

BTC Markets in the news

Bloomberg: Bitcoin recovery from worst of selloff holds, buoying traders

BTC Markets Analyst Rachael Lucas noted that Bitcoin’s muted trading on Monday could also indicate that selling pressure is subsiding. She sees $80,000 as the near-term floor, with $90,000 to $95,000 forming the resistance band to any meaningful rebound.

Ausbiz: Bitcoin's perfect storm

Bitcoin has experienced a challenging period since its early October highs, according to Charlie Sherry from BTC Markets. Sherry points to a combination of mass liquidations, the unwinding of leverage, significant ETF outflows, and a broader tech selloff as major drivers of the cryptocurrency’s sharp decline.

The Block: Bitcoin bounces back to $87,500 under 'fragile' market structure: analysts

"BTC is consolidating after its deepest correction of the cycle," said Rachael Lucas, crypto analyst at BTC Markets. "It's holding above $86K, which is constructive short term, but the structure remains fragile."

Lucas noted that a sustained claim above $88,000 would confirm a bottoming process for bitcoin. Meanwhile, a failure to do so would risk the cryptocurrency falling to $80,000.

“We’ve gone from a white paper in 2008 to a multi-trillion-dollar asset class that’s now integrated into the global financial system,” Sherry says.

Announcements

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Our AI engine scans trusted sources, summarises key developments, and delivers clear insights, all in one place.

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The Blockies 2025: Tomorrow night

We’re excited to be sponsoring The Blockies 2025, hosted by the Digital Economy Council of Australia (DECA). This event celebrates Australia’s leading innovators and builders in blockchain and digital assets. Our partnership reflects a strong commitment to driving innovation, ensuring security, and delivering excellence for our clients. Supporting initiatives like The Blockies highlights our dedication to recognising progress and leadership across the blockchain industry. Tomorrow night, we join the community in honouring those shaping the future of digital finance.

Learn more

The week ahead: Economic events

Thursday, November 27th

• Germany GfK Consumer Climate

Friday, November 28th

• France Inflation Rate
• Italy Inflation Rate
• India GDP Annual Growth Rate
• Germany Inflation Rate
• Canada GDP Growth Annualized, GDP Growth Rate

Sunday, November 30th

• China NBS Manufacturing PMI

Monday, December 1st

• China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI
• United States ISM Manufacturing PMI

Tuesday, December 2nd

• Japan Consumer Confidence
• Euro Area Inflation Rate

Wednesday, December 3rd

• Australia GDP Growth Rate
• United States ISM Services PMI

Source: Trading Economics

Market reflections

• United States: Treasury yields fell as optimism grew over a rate cut ahead of the Fed’s December meeting
• Europe: Euro-zone business activity rose this month, driven by a strong rebound in services even as manufacturing lagged
• China: Beijing set the strongest yuan fix in over a year as rising Fed-cut expectations supported the currency
• Japan: Fiscal stimulus plans sparked bond-market volatility as investors scrutinised the impact on sovereign spreads
• Australia: Consumer inflation accelerated to 3.8% in October and overshot estimates

Fresh data and policy signals pointed to contrasting conditions across major economies this week. In the United States, Treasury yields declined as confidence grew around a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in December. Softer indicators and measured guidance from policymakers supported expectations for a near-term shift toward easing.

Across Europe, business activity strengthened in November. A rebound in services lifted the composite PMI and helped counter ongoing weakness in manufacturing. The improvement offered a modest lift in sentiment, though the broader outlook still lacked consistency.

China moved to stabilise its currency by setting the strongest yuan fix in more than a year. The decision reflected Beijing’s intent to guide FX conditions as rising U.S. rate-cut expectations added support for the currency. Market reaction remained steady as traders assessed the implications for capital flows.

Japan introduced new volatility after the government unveiled fresh fiscal stimulus measures. Bond yields climbed as investors evaluated the long-term impact on sovereign spreads and the balance between fiscal expansion and monetary policy.

Australia delivered another notable development as consumer inflation accelerated to 3.8% in October, overshooting forecasts. The stronger reading dampened hopes for near-term policy relief and shifted focus back to the RBA’s assessment of persistent price pressures.

Together, these developments pointed to a global environment shaped by diverging growth paths, shifting policy expectations, and ongoing sensitivity to inflation and currency movements.

Forward view

Near-term price action hinges on macro. If the Fed signals a December cut and the Hassett narrative firms, risk appetite should improve, supporting BTC around US$90,000 and ETH near US$3,000. Watch ETF flows: sustained creations into XRP and Solana may continue absorbing supply. Keep an eye on Tether reserves and MSCI’s January review for MicroStrategy; either could be volatility catalysts. For traders, focus on disciplined position sizing and liquidity around key levels rather than chasing moves.

Online safety: How to spot impersonation attempts

Impersonation attempts occur when someone pretends to be a bank, crypto exchange, government agency, or even someone you know. These messages may use familiar names, altered contact details, or convincing language to make the communication appear genuine.

You may receive texts, emails, or calls that look official and claim there is an urgent issue with your account or recent activity. Some may request personal information or direct you to click a link to “verify” details. These tactics aim to create pressure so that you respond before checking the source.

What to watch out for

• Messages containing links that ask for logins or personal information.
• Urgent requests that ask you to act quickly to resolve a supposed issue.
• Calls or texts claiming to be from government agencies that mention legal action or arrest.
• Business payment instructions that suddenly change bank account or BSB details.
• Contacts who say they have a new number but avoid confirming their identity.

How to stay safe

• Avoid clicking links or downloading attachments from unfamiliar sources.
• Confirm the message by reaching out to the organisation using official contact details.
• Pay attention to subtle changes in phone numbers, email addresses, or names.
• End the conversation if the tone becomes threatening or intimidating.
• Verify the identity of anyone claiming to be a friend or family member with a new number.

Learn more at scamwatch.gov.au.

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The information does not purport to be complete, accurate or contain all of the information that a person may require to make a decision. It may also contain forward looking statements, which are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors. We recommend you obtain professional advice before making any decision with respect to the matters discussed in this document. To the maximum extent permitted by law, BTC Markets will have no liability for any loss or liability of any kind: (i) arising in respect of the information contained (or not contained) on this page; or (ii) arising from a person relying on any information or statement contained on this page. The information provided is only intended for recipients in Australia. This information cannot be reproduced without our prior written permission.