Bitcoin rebounds above US$95K amid ETF outflows

TLDR

• ETF outflows hit US$1.11B as Bitcoin rebounds above US$95K
• Crypto market cap down 9% as volatility spikes
• Institutions accumulate OTC despite ETF bleeding
• Ethereum retraces 40% from its August 2025 peak
• Solana ETFs show strong institutional demand despite price weakness
• XRP ETF launch fails to boost price despite record $245M inflows

Introduction

Crypto markets endured a turbulent week as Bitcoin fell 10%, closing just above US$94,000, levels not seen since April 2025. Institutional sentiment flipped sharply, with spot ETFs bleeding up to US$1.8 billion in outflows, led by BlackRock’s IBIT posting its largest single-day exit. Technical stress compounded the sell-off as Bitcoin lost its 365-day moving average and printed a death cross, historically a bearish regime signal.

Retail capitulation added fuel, with short-term holders dumping 148,000 BTC at a loss and 24-hour liquidations topping US$634 million. Despite the gloom, OTC accumulation by institutional whales and Strategy’s continued buying hint at long-term conviction.

Macro conditions remain mixed, sticky inflation and delayed rate cuts weigh on risk appetite, but the US government reopening, QT ending in December, and pending rate cuts could provide the liquidity tailwind for recovery once leverage clears.

Weekly trading stats as of Monday, November 17th at 11:00 AM AEDT, based on data from TradingView in USD.

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Crypto market cap down 9% as volatility spikes

The total crypto market cap opened the week at US$3.49 trillion, climbed to a swing high of US$3.59 trillion, and dropped to a low of US$3.11 trillion before closing at US$3.16 trillion, marking a 9.40% weekly decline. Bitcoin dominance also slipped to 59.50%, down 0.68% over the same period, reflecting broader weakness across major assets and increased volatility in altcoins.

ETF outflows hit US$1.11B as Bitcoin rebounds above US$95K

Bitcoin faced heavy selling pressure this week as US spot ETFs recorded outflows of US$1.11 billion, marking one of the sharpest reversals since ETF approvals. BlackRock’s IBIT led the exodus, posting a single-day outflow of US$463-532 million on November 14.

These redemptions coincided with Bitcoin breaking below US$94,000 for the first time in six months, pushing the Fear & Greed Index to an extreme fear reading of 10. The average ETF purchase price now sits at US$90,146, leaving institutional investors with slim unrealised gains of just 4.7%, which may explain the risk-off behaviour.

Technically, Bitcoin has lost its 365-day moving average and printed a death cross, reinforcing bearish momentum. Analysts remain divided on whether this is a mid-cycle correction or the start of the bear market. Historical context matters, the last cycle saw a 55% drawdown before a surge to new highs.

Traders are watching immediate resistance at US$100,500 - US$103,000 and broader resistance at US$106,000 - US$110,000. On the downside, key support sits at US$94,000 - US$95,000, with a critical floor at US$88,000 - US$91,000. A break below this zone could trigger deeper selling, while a decisive move above US$103,000 would signal the first step toward recovery.

With macro conditions shifting, US government reopening, QT ending in December, and rate cuts pending, the next move hinges on whether Bitcoin can hold key support zones and reclaim resistance levels.

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Ethereum retraces 40% from its August 2025 peak

Ethereum ETFs saw significant outflows in November, exceeding US$1.24 billion, with BlackRock’s ETHA leading the retreat after a single-day redemption of US$173.3 million on November 14. This reversal coincides with ETH sliding 40% from its 2025 peak to US$3,100 - US$3,200, breaking below all major moving averages and forming a potential death cross.

Long-term holders are selling at the fastest pace since 2021, adding to bearish pressure, while whales accumulated US$1.37 billion during the correction, creating conflicting signals. Despite cumulative net inflows of US$13.13 billion and total net assets of US$20 billion, around 5.42% of Ethereum’s market cap, the trend suggests institutions are reassessing exposure amid macro uncertainty.

Trading activity remains strong, with US$2.01 billion in daily volume, but sentiment is fragile. Key zones to watch include resistance at US$3,500 - US$3,750 and US$3,900 - US$4,100; support at US$3,200 - US$3,250, with a critical floor at US$3,000.

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Solana ETFs show strong institutional demand despite price weakness

Solana closed the week at US$137.17, down 16.6% after breaking key support at US$144. Despite technical weakness and Alameda token unlocks, ETFs continue to attract inflows, with US$294M net inflows since launch and Bitwise’s Solana ETF now holding US$357M AUM. Institutional demand is creating a price floor around US$135 - US$140, but charts show a death cross, RSI near oversold (32), and ADX at 41, signaling strong bearish momentum. Analysts warn of a potential slide to US$100 - US$129 if support fails. Meanwhile, Cash App’s USDC integration on Solana boosts its payments narrative, reinforcing long-term utility despite short-term volatility.

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XRP ETF launch fails to boost price despite record US$245M inflows

XRP’s highly anticipated ETF debut delivered record inflows of US$245 million and US$58 million in first-day volume, surpassing Solana ETF launches. Despite this, XRP fell 6.39% on the week, closing at US$2.214 as broader market weakness and Bitcoin’s decline overshadowed the positive catalyst. Whale wallets sold 200 million tokens worth US$400 million, even as transaction volumes hit four-month highs. Traders now question whether this signals major distribution or strategic repositioning ahead of seven more ETF launches.

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Closing thoughts: Extreme fear meets macro uncertainty

Short-term bias remains bearish, but oversold conditions and whale accumulation could spark a relief rally. Traders are focused on US Fed policy signals, which will shape rate expectations, alongside ETF flows and funding rates for sentiment clues. Macro headwinds, sticky inflation and a strong USD, continue to pressure risk assets, though any dovish surprise could ignite upside momentum. For Bitcoin, US$94K support is critical, while US$103K resistance marks the breakout trigger. Expect volatility around macro prints and ETF headlines as fear battles opportunity this week.

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