Bitcoin remains resilient

Weekly crypto wrap: 12th September 2024

TLDR

• Ondo (ONDO) is now live and available to buy on BTC Markets.
• Bitcoin remains resilient with expectations of reaching six figures.
• Grayscale’s Sui Trust, now accessible to accredited investors.
• Australian consumer and business sentiment dips in September.
• US core inflation rises, unemployment rate drops, jobless figures stable.
• China’s trade surplus jumps in August due to strong exports.

BTC Markets announcements

Ondo (ONDO) is now live and ready to buy on BTC Markets.

You can now buy and sell the ONDO/AUD pair on our platform. Explore this latest addition to our list of supported cryptocurrencies today.

What is Ondo (Ondo)?

Ondo Finance is a platform that uses blockchain technology to make financial markets more efficient, transparent, and accessible by automating processes and reducing costs.

For more information about Ondo (ONDO), please visit our blog. Follow us on X/Twitter, LinkedIn, or Facebook for all the latest updates.

Buy ONDO/AUD on BTC Markets.

Support Australian charities on ASX Markets Day with BTC Markets.

Join us for the ASX Refinitiv Markets Day for Charity on Tuesday, 15th October 2024. BTC Markets is honoured to support this key event alongside industry leaders like ASX, NABtrade, Macquarie Bank, and Citi.

This day is about more than trading; it's about making a significant impact. Since 1996, the ASX Refinitiv Charity Foundation has raised over $36 million for charities focused on women, children, disabilities, and medical research.

How to get involved?

It’s simple, just log in and trade on the day and BTC Markets will contribute 100% of our trading profits to these important causes. Join us in supporting Australians in need.

Read more here.

Streamline your 2024 crypto tax reporting with Syla.

Charlie Sherry, our Head of Finance, speaks with Nick Christie, Co-founder of Syla, about simplifying tax reporting for cryptocurrency investors.

Watch the video here.

Enjoy a 50% discount on your first year with any Syla subscription

Use code: BTCM50.

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Visit Syla.com.au for more information.

Learn: Start your crypto journey with BTC Markets' beginner's guide.

Explore the world of cryptocurrencies with BTC Markets' beginner's guide. Our Learn Section is crafted specifically for newcomers eager to understand the crypto space.

What you’ll find in our Learn Section:

• Introduction to cryptocurrencies: Explore the fascinating world of cryptocurrencies and their potential role in the future of finance.
• Getting started in crypto: Learn the basics about crypto wallets, exchanges and creating an account.
• How to buy and sell crypto: Learn how to buy, sell, and store crypto on an exchange, and secure your assets with best practices.
• How to stay safe in crypto: Stay safe in the crypto space by understanding the common scams and how to avoid them.
• Crypto tax requirements: Understanding the regulatory landscape and tax reporting requirements for crypto.

Visit our Learn Section today and start your journey towards becoming a confident and informed crypto enthusiast. With BTC Markets, the future of finance is at your fingertips.

Explore now.

BTC Markets x Ticker News ‘Crypto Corner’ featuring Giant Swan.

In this episode, join BTC Markets CEO, Caroline Bowler as she chats with Giant Swan, to learn about his journey into the world of virtual reality artistry and NFT innovation.

Watch on YouTube or Ticker News.

Card deposits

Did you know…AUD card deposits are available at BTC Markets?

BTC Markets clients can deposit AUD directly into their account using Australian-issued Visa or Mastercard credit or debit cards.

This method provides a fast, convenient, and secure way to fund accounts instantly without leaving the exchange. Clients can simply log in and enter their card details to make an instant deposit.

Benefits of AUD card deposits include:

• Instant deposits without leaving the exchange.
• Flexibility to use Visa or Mastercard credit or debit cards.
• Enhanced security for card information.

Additionally, we offer other deposit methods such as Osko (PayID) and direct deposits.

Our goal is to provide Australians with easier access to digital assets and a more convenient trading experience.

Deposit AUD today!

To learn more about AUD card deposits, please visit our Help Centre.

BTC Markets in the news

Fintech Fun podcast: Caroline Bowler discusses BTC Markets and crypto trends.

Our CEO, Caroline Bowler, joins Chris Titley on the Fintech Fun podcast to discuss BTC Markets’ rise to one of Australia’s top cryptocurrency exchanges.

Caroline shares how her traditional finance background shaped her innovative approach in digital assets and highlights BTC Markets' commitment to security and localised solutions, honed over eleven years in the industry.

Listen to the podcast here.

State of crypto

TLDR

• Bitcoin poised for six-figure surge despite U.S. election outcome, investors say.
• BTC ETF inflows and on-chain data signal potential recovery.
• Crypto funds face biggest weekly outflows since March, amid uncertainty.
• Grayscale Sui Trust now available to accredited investors.

The Weekly Wrap: Bitcoin remains resilient; expectations of reaching 6- figures.

Bitcoin remains resilient with expectations of reaching six figures, despite market volatility and U.S. economic uncertainties. Recent declines saw Bitcoin dip below US$56K due to weak U.S. stock performance and increased fund outflows. Meanwhile, Huma Finance raised US$38M for expansion, and Grayscale’s Sui Trust, now accessible to accredited investors, posts an NAV of US$13.50.

The weekly trading stats as of Monday, September 9th at 10:00 am AEST, based on data from Tradingview in USD.

Bitcoin poised for six-figure surge despite U.S. election outcome, investors say.

Despite increasing partisan divides in the cryptocurrency industry, Bitcoin is forecasted to hit six figures regardless of the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election according to industry participants. Experts such as Steven Lubka of Swan Bitcoin and James Davies of Crypto Valley Exchange argue that Bitcoin's long-term performance is rooted in global fiscal and monetary policies, not U.S. political leadership.

While there may be short-term fluctuations depending on the election result, the institutionalisation of Bitcoin and macroeconomic factors like interest rates will be the main drivers of its growth. Investors believe that the market remains resilient, with Bitcoin trading between US$55k-$70k throughout 2024.

Buy BTC/AUD on BTC Markets.

Bitcoin shows resilience as ETF inflows and on-chain data signal potential recovery.

Bitcoin's recent price movements and on-chain data, signalling a potential recovery if the price holds above the US$56,022 support level. Key factors include a second consecutive day of inflows into US Bitcoin Spot ETFs, amounting to US$117 million, and positive on-chain data showing reduced selling pressure from miners, a negative exchange flow balance, and declining Bitcoin supply on exchanges. These metrics suggest increased investor confidence and accumulation of BTC.

Bitcoin's price volatility is expected around the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which could influence the market, based on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Technical indicators are mixed, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Awesome Oscillator (AO) reflecting investor indecision. If Bitcoin holds the US$56,022 level, a potential 6% rally could occur, but if it drops below US$54,000, further declines are likely.

Source: TheBlock.co

Bitcoin drops below US$56K as U.S. stocks retreat amid weak trading.

Bitcoin plunged below US$56,000 on Wednesday as U.S. stock markets opened weak, extending a trend of crypto declines coinciding with U.S. market activity. After rising briefly to US$57,000 following the U.S. CPI inflation report, Bitcoin fell to US$55,600 within an hour of the stock market’s opening.

The broader crypto market also saw declines, with major altcoins such as Solana (SOL) and Avalanche (AVAX) falling 4%-7%. The drop reflects a broader "risk-off" sentiment among U.S. investors. Stocks were also down, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 dropping 1.6% and 1.3%, respectively. The strengthening of the Japanese yen overnight may have added to market pressures.

Buy AVAX/AUD on BTC Markets.

Crypto funds face biggest weekly outflows since March, amid U.S. economic uncertainty.

The buzz around Bitcoin ETFs is cooling as investors pulled US$726 million from crypto funds last week, marking the highest weekly outflow since March, according to CoinShares.

U.S. Bitcoin ETFs led the losses with US$643 million in redemptions, while Ethereum funds saw US$98 million in outflows, largely from Grayscale’s recently converted Ethereum Trust. The total outflows reached US$1.2 billion over the past eight days.

The decline is attributed to stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, which increased the likelihood of a 25-basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve. European investors, however, showed some optimism, contributing inflows to Solana and other assets.

Broader financial markets, including the S&P 500, were rattled by weaker-than-expected U.S. data, further weighing on risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies.

While the market faces pressure, European sentiment remains somewhat bullish, with Solana-based funds seeing US$6.2 million in inflows last week.

Huma Finance raises US$38M to expand tokenised RWA platform, targets Solana and Stellar.

Huma Finance, a blockchain-based payment-finance platform focused on tokenised real-world assets (RWA), secured US$38 million in funding.

The round includes US$10 million in equity from investors like Distributed Global and Hashkey Capital, and US$28 million in RWA investments led by Stellar Development Foundation.

Huma, which merged with cross-border payments firm Arf earlier this year, plans to expand to Solana and Stellar’s Soroban network. The platform aims to provide faster, more efficient trade financing solutions, with the combined companies projected to hit US$10 billion in transactions by next year.

Buy SOL/AUD on BTC Markets.

Grayscale Sui Trust now available to accredited investors.

Grayscale has announced that its newly launched Sui Trust is open to eligible accredited investors. As of September 11, 2024, the Net Asset Value (NAV) per share of the Grayscale Sui Trust is set at US$13.50.

The Sui Trust provides a straightforward method for investors to gain exposure to SUI, a third-generation blockchain designed to enhance scalability and reduce transaction costs, without the need for direct management of SUI assets. The trust aims to track the market price of SUI, minus fees and expenses, simplifying investment in the decentralised SUI Network.

SUI, which is employed in the SUI Network’s proof-of-stake mechanism, has experienced a notable rebound in total value locked (TVL), now standing at over US$940 million. Despite recent struggles, SUI’s innovative blockchain features and growing DeFi presence continue to attract attention.

Trade SUI/AUD on BTC Markets.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index

Source: Crypto fear and greed index

The week ahead: economic events

Thursday, September 12th:

• Australian inflation expectations.
• Euro Area deposit facility rate and interest rate.
• United States producer price inflation.

Saturday, September 14th:

• United States Michigan consumer sentiment.
• China industrial production and China retail sales.

Tuesday, September 17th:

• Germany ZEW economic sentiment index.
• Canada inflation rate.
• United States retail sales.

Wednesday, September 18th:

• Japan balance of trade.
• United Kingdom inflation rate.
• United States building permits.

Thursday, September 19th:

• United States Fed funds interest rate.

Source: trading economics

Market reflections

Overview

In September, Australian consumer sentiment fell due to economic concerns, while NAB’s business confidence index dropped, marking a yearly low. Conversely, dwelling approvals surged in July and the trade surplus rose. In the US, core inflation edged up slightly, and job growth missed forecasts, with the unemployment rate at 4.2%. China's trade surplus soared in August, driven by robust export growth, despite a rise in inflation.

Australia

• Consumer sentiment dips in September due to economic pessimism.
• NAB business confidence falls, marking the lowest of 2024.
• Dwelling approvals surge in July, highest in 14 months.
• Trade surplus rises in July, surpassing expectations.

Australian consumer sentiment dips in September amid economic concerns.

Australia’s Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment index fell by 0.5% to 84.6 in September, reversing August’s gains and reflecting ongoing economic pessimism. This marks the sixth decline this year, influenced by sluggish GDP growth and job loss fears.

Consumer outlooks for both short- and long-term economic conditions worsened, while unemployment expectations increased. Despite these concerns, family finances showed slight improvements, and inflation concerns are easing.

NAB business confidence index falls in August, marking the lowest level of 2024.

Australia's NAB business confidence index plummeted to -4 in August 2024, down from July, marking the first negative reading in three months. This decline reflects significant drops in sectors such as recreation, transport, construction, and manufacturing.

Business conditions also weakened, with reduced employment and minor declines in sales and profitability. Labor cost growth eased, while purchase costs rose. Forward orders remained steady, and capacity utilisation and capital expenditure increased.

Australia's dwelling approvals surge in July, reaching a 14-month high.

In July, Australia's total dwelling approvals jumped 10.4% month-over-month, the highest in 14 months. This rebound follows a 6.4% decline in June.

The increase was driven by a 32.1% rise in permits for high-density apartments and a 0.6% uptick in private sector house approvals.

Approvals grew across most states as private house approvals also reached a 21-month peak, led by New South Wales and South Australia.

Australia’s trade surplus hits AU$6.01 billion in July.

Australia’s trade surplus on goods rose to AU$6.01 billion in July, up from a revised AU$5.43 billion in June and exceeding expectations of AU$5 billion.

This surplus, the largest since February, was driven by a 0.7% increase in exports to AU$43.81 billion and a 0.8% decline in imports to AU$37.79 billion. Notable export growth was seen to India (4.6%) and Indonesia (27.9%), while imports from China and Japan fell.

The data suggests that Australia is benefiting from stronger export performance and lower import costs, contributing to an improved trade surplus and potentially boosting economic growth.

Global

• US core inflation rises to 3.2% in August, driven by shelter costs.
• US unemployment rate drops to 4.2% in August, with stable jobless figures.
• China’s trade surplus jumps to US$91 billion in August due to strong exports.
• Germany’s trade surplus narrows to €16.8 billion as imports outpace exports.
• UK unemployment rate falls to 4.1% with a significant rise in full-time employment.

United States

US core inflation rises slightly in August as shelter and transportation costs increase.

In August, US core consumer prices, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.3% from the previous month, slightly above forecasts of a 0.2% rise and up from 0.2% in July.

This uptick was driven by higher costs in transportation services (0.9% vs 0.4% in July) and shelter (0.5% vs 0.4%), as well as a rebound in apparel prices (0.3% vs -0.4%). On an annual basis, core inflation remained steady at 3.2%, matching July’s rate and market expectations.

Overall inflation slowed to 2.5% year-over-year, the lowest since February 2021, primarily due to a significant decline in energy costs. Energy prices fell by 4%, with gasoline and fuel oil seeing substantial drops. Food inflation eased slightly to 2.1%, while transportation costs also moderated.

Monthly, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2%, in line with expectations, with shelter being the largest contributor to this increase.

US ISM Services PMI rises slightly in August, indicating continued growth.

The ISM Services PMI in the US increased to 51.5 in August, up from 51.4 in July and surpassing expectations of a dip to 51.1. This indicates ongoing growth in the services sector.

New orders continued their rebound, reaching 53, while production slowed to 53.3. Employment saw a marginal rise to 50.2, avoiding a sixth month of contraction. Despite this, the price gauge accelerated to 57.3, reflecting higher costs in various sectors.

US economy adds 142K jobs in August, missing forecasts and revising past figures lower.

In August, the US economy added 142,000 jobs, surpassing the downwardly revised 89,000 jobs in July but falling short of the forecasted 160,000.

Job gains were seen in construction, health care, government, and social assistance, while manufacturing jobs declined by 24,000.

Employment figures for July and June were revised down by 25,000 and 61,000, respectively. Overall job growth was consistent with recent months but below the average gain of 202,000 jobs over the past year.

US unemployment rate drops to 4.2% in August, with stable jobless figures.

In August, the US unemployment rate decreased to 4.2%, down from 4.3% the previous month, meeting market expectations.

The number of unemployed remained stable at 7.1 million. Permanent job losers held steady at 1.7 million, while temporary layoffs decreased by 190,000 to 872,000.

Long-term unemployment remained at 1.5 million, representing 21.3% of the jobless population. The labour force participation rate stayed at 62.7%.

China

China's inflation rises in August, food prices see first increase since June 2023.

China's annual inflation rate edged up to 0.6% in August, surpassing July's 0.5% but missing forecasts of 0.7%.

This marks the highest inflation since February, driven by a rise in food prices for the first time since June 2023, largely due to increased costs of fresh vegetables.

Non-food price increases slowed, and transport costs fell significantly. Core consumer prices grew by 0.3%, the slowest pace since March 2021.

China's trade surplus jumps in August as exports outpace imports.

China's trade surplus surged to US$91.02 billion in August, up from US$67.81 billion a year earlier and exceeding market expectations of US$83.90 billion.

This significant increase was driven by a robust 8.7% rise in exports, reaching a 23-month high of US$308.65 billion, while import growth slowed sharply to 0.5% amid weak domestic demand.

The surplus with the US also widened to US$33.81 billion. For the first eight months of 2024, China’s trade surplus stood at US$608.49 billion, with exports growing 4.6% and imports rising 2.5%.

Germany

Germany's trade surplus narrows in July as imports outpace exports.

Germany’s trade surplus narrowed to €16.8 billion in July, down from €20.4 billion in June and below forecasts of €21 billion.

This is the smallest surplus since December 2022. Exports increased by 1.7% to €130 billion, rebounding from a 3.4% decline in June. Imports surged by 5.4% to €113.2 billion, driven by higher purchases from non-EU countries. For the first seven months of 2024, Germany recorded a surplus of €156.5 billion.

United Kingdom

UK unemployment rate drops to 4.1% with record rise in full-time employment.

The UK's unemployment rate fell to 4.1% for the period from May to July, down from 4.2% previously, reaching its lowest point since early this year.

The number of unemployed individuals decreased by 74,000 to 1.44 million. The number of employed people surged by 265,000, marking the highest increase in over 18 months, driven by a rise in full-time positions. The economic inactivity rate also dropped to 21.9%.

UK economy stalls in July as production and construction output decline.

The British economy stalled in July 2024, showing no growth, in line with June's performance and falling short of a forecasted 0.2% increase.

Services output rose slightly by 0.1%, with notable increases in computer programming, information services, and wholesale trade, though advertising and architectural activities declined. Production output fell by 0.8%, driven by a 1% decrease in manufacturing, particularly in the motor vehicle sector. Construction output also dropped by 0.4%.

Over the three months to July, GDP grew by 0.5%, a slight slowdown from the previous period’s 0.6% growth.

Canada

Canada's unemployment rate rises in August, marking highest level since October 2021.

Canada’s unemployment rate increased to 6.6% in August, up from 6.4% in July and exceeding market expectations of 6.5%. This is the highest rate since October 2021, indicating a softening labour market.

The number of unemployed individuals rose by 60,400 to 1,458,900, with notable increases among core working age and older workers. Despite a net employment increase of 22,100, below the forecasted 25,000, hourly wage growth slowed to 4.9%.

Canada's Ivey PMI plunges, signalling first contraction in a year.

In August, Canada's Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell sharply to 48.2, down from 57.6 in July and missing forecasts of 55.5.

This drop, the first contraction in 12 months, reflects declines across key indices: inventories, employment, and supplier deliveries. Price growth accelerated, while the unadjusted PMI dropped to 50.3, its lowest since December 2022.

Regulation round-up

UK government introduces bill to recognise crypto assets as personal property.

The U.K. government has proposed a bill to classify digital assets, including cryptocurrencies and NFTs, as personal property. This new legal framework aims to provide clearer guidelines for ownership disputes, such as in divorce cases, and enhance protection against fraud.

The bill introduces a new category of property to accommodate digital assets and follows recommendations from the Law Commission to modernise British law.

Scam awareness

AI-driven crypto scams.

AI-driven crypto scams represent a new threat, using deepfakes, scam tokens, phishing sites, and disinformation. Although current risks are minor, crypto users must stay alert and adopt precautions to safeguard their assets effectively.

Read the full blog here.

The Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) provides a checklist of common scams and ways to avoid them. To learn more, visit ASIC’s website.

Discover more on our ‘Compliance conversation’ blog page, where we share the latest updates on safeguarding against scams and protecting your assets. Stay informed and stay protected!

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