Bitcoin resists pressure as Fed cut fuels demand

TLDR

• Bitcoin stays range-bound with resistance at US$116K and clustered liquidation risks
• US Fed cuts 25 bps as tariffs, jobs weakness and inflation keep outlook uncertain
• Institutional ETF flows offset selling, keeping Ethereum in focus
• Altcoin interest centres on Solana and Avalanche as smaller tokens lag
• Market rotation trims Bitcoin dominance from mid-year highs

Introduction

Crypto markets closed the week in wait-and-see mode, with Bitcoin stuck in a narrow US$115K–116K range. Traders weighed the Fed’s 0.25% cut and the prospect of further easing against choppy flows across digital assets. Bitcoin ETFs once again drew the strongest inflows, while Ethereum saw signs of renewed institutional demand. Broader conditions were mixed: the total market cap briefly tested US$4.2T before settling near US$4.0T. The coming weeks will test whether easier policy and steady ETF participation can break resistance and push the uptrend forward.

Weekly trading stats as of Monday, September 22nd at 10:00 AM AEST, based on data from TradingView in USD.

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Bitcoin stays range-bound with resistance at US$116K and clustered liquidation risks

Bitcoin traded in a narrow US$115K–116K band through the week, with momentum cooling and RSI near neutral on the 4-hour chart. The daily structure remains constructive, with prices holding above the 50-day MA at US$114.4K and well clear of the 200-day MA at US$103.6K.

Support sits at US$111K–113K, with a deeper cushion around the 200-day. Resistance is layered at US$116K, then US$120K–123K. Liquidation maps highlight sizeable clusters below US$114K and above US$120K, signalling risks of both a long flush and a short squeeze. With volumes steady but unspectacular, any breakout may rely on liquidation runs or a fresh macro catalyst.

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US Fed cuts 25 bps as tariffs, jobs weakness and inflation keep outlook uncertain

After a week of narrow Bitcoin ranges, focus shifted to the macro backdrop, where the US Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bps to a 4.00%–4.25% range. Markets are now debating whether further easing will follow into year-end. Tariff risks remain front of mind, with goods yet to filter through to inflation data as the holiday season approaches.

Jobs weakness has added to the dovish tilt, while U.S. equities pushed to record highs on the rate move. Regulators also advanced ETF plumbing reforms to streamline listing standards and shorten approval timelines, a medium-term positive for institutional access. Combined with steady spot ETF subscriptions, these shifts support a constructive risk tone even as near-term flows remain two-way.

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Institutional ETF flows offset selling, keeping Ethereum in focus

As rate cuts and macro shifts set the backdrop, ETF activity continued to anchor crypto price discovery. Weekly flows showed US$2.72B into Bitcoin ETFs and US$907M into Ethereum ETFs, a sign that institutional participation is broadening beyond BTC. For Ethereum, steady inflows helped offset intermittent whale selling and kept price action firm around US$4,450 after its recent run.

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Altcoin interest centres on Solana and Avalanche as smaller tokens lag

Beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, rotation extended into select altcoins. Solana gained 9% on speculation tied to ETF discussions and stronger stablecoin activity, while Avalanche rose 11.4% after reports of new fundraising plans. By contrast, smaller tokens such as HYPE and HBAR underperformed, underscoring how capital remains selective rather than broad-based.

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Market rotation trims Bitcoin dominance from mid-year highs

Bitcoin dominance slipped to 58%, down from peaks near 66% earlier in the year. The decline reflects a cautious broadening of flows into Ethereum and select altcoins, rather than a decisive altcoin season. Bitcoin continues to anchor overall sentiment, even as institutional demand and rotation shape market structure.

What to watch this week

With Bitcoin dominance easing and rotation broadening, focus now shifts to upcoming catalysts. In the U.S., PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Powell’s speech will guide expectations for further easing. In Australia, CPI figures will be key for the RBA outlook.

On the crypto side, ETF flows remain the barometer of institutional sentiment, while traders watch whether Bitcoin can break resistance at US$116K or if Ethereum sustains improving inflows.

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Closing thoughts

A steadier macro tone and consistent ETF demand are helping to keep crypto’s medium-term bias constructive, even as near-term ranges persist. Bitcoin continues to anchor sentiment, while institutional flows into Ethereum and select majors underline how rotation is shaping the current cycle.

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