Bitcoin sustains US$107K on ETF demand and accumulation

Bitcoin is consolidating in a relatively strong position, trading above US$107,000 and holding key technical support levels. As I shared in a recent interview with The Block, institutional flows continue to provide a foundation, particularly through spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have shown a consistent streak of inflows. Long-term holders are quietly increasing their exposure, now holding over 14.18 million BTC, while retail activity appears more cautious. On-chain data shows a dip in network activity and profit realisation, so while the market is stable, it remains reactive.

One area worth watching is Bitcoin’s growing relevance in traditional finance: the US Federal Housing Finance Agency has signalled support for recognising crypto assets, like Bitcoin, in mortgage applications. It’s an early step, but the implications for Bitcoin as a form of collateral could be significant. Overall, we’re seeing a mix of macroeconomic stability, easing geopolitical tension, and increasing regulatory clarity, all helping to shape the market’s current posture.

Catalysts point to a breakout

A new all-time high feels more like a matter of timing than possibility. Several catalysts are in play: ongoing institutional allocation, particularly from corporate treasuries and sovereign wealth funds; growing use cases like Bitcoin-backed mortgages; regulatory progress in key jurisdictions; and macro tailwinds such as interest rate cuts and inflation stabilisation. If these factors continue to align, we could see Bitcoin move into price discovery before year-end. That said, crypto markets rarely move in a straight line. A sudden macro or political event could delay that momentum.

Volatility persists despite maturity

There are a few key risks to monitor. First, any slowdown or reversal in ETF inflows could unsettle market confidence. Second, regulatory curveballs remain a possibility, especially from the US, where litigation and legislation continue to evolve. Third, rising retail leverage is a growing concern—open interest is climbing, and if sentiment flips, overexposure to long positions could lead to sharp corrections. While the broader environment for Bitcoin is maturing, traders should remain vigilant. Volatility is still very much part of the story.

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