Bitcoin tests key support as bearish structure holds

The bearish trend continues in crypto, with BTC trading around US$73K at the time of writing. The broader picture hasn’t changed much, Bitcoin has been in a sustained downtrend since the October 2025 market top, and there are still very few signs that this trend is easing.

As I told The Australian, crypto has shown clear relative weakness compared to equities and commodities, as capital rotated into those markets during their strong runs. Metals have now rolled over, and equities are beginning to show signs of weakness in pockets. A lot of this appears tied to growing uncertainty around the upcoming Federal Reserve chair transition. Uncertainty is rarely positive for risk assets, and historically when broader markets begin to wobble, crypto tends to feel that pressure more acutely.

US$74K marks a critical post-election level

From a price perspective, Bitcoin is now sitting at a particularly important level. The US$74K area marked the entry point for the post–Trump election “Trump trade,” and BTC is currently trading below that level. A material loss of this area would signal meaningful weakness and increase the likelihood of further downside as the downtrend continues.

What would need to change for a recovery

It’s still difficult to frame Bitcoin as definitively cheap or expensive here. Crypto has a habit of feeling cheap during strong rallies and expensive during drawdowns, and we may be in one of those environments where there’s effectively a buyer strike. With limited demand stepping in, the path of least resistance remains lower until sellers are exhausted.

For any kind of recovery to take shape, we need to see a clear break in the current bearish market structure. Reclaiming the US$79K level would be an initial step, but Bitcoin would still need to work through several overhead resistance levels before the broader trend could realistically be considered constructive again.

For more insights and market analysis, follow me on LinkedIn or X.

Disclaimer: The information provided on this page is issued by BTC Markets Pty Ltd (BTC Markets, we, us, our). The information is general only and is not intended to constitute an opinion or recommendation with respect to its contents. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any reference to past performance is intended to be for general illustrative purposes only. The information cannot be relied upon for any purposes and is not intended to be a substitute for professional advice.

The information does not purport to be complete, accurate or contain all of the information that a person may require to make a decision. It may also contain forward looking statements, which are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors. We recommend you obtain professional advice before making any decision with respect to the matters discussed in this document. To the maximum extent permitted by law, BTC Markets will have no liability for any loss or liability of any kind: (i) arising in respect of the information contained (or not contained) on this page; or (ii) arising from a person relying on any information or statement contained on this page. The information provided is only intended for recipients in Australia. This information cannot be reproduced without our prior written permission.