BTC tests support as ETH eyes upgrade

TLDR

• Bitcoin closes -7.88%, tests US$85K support 
• ETF flows flip risk-off, US$3.55B out in November 
• Ethereum drops 9.47%, Fusaka upgrade in focus 
• Solana ETFs defy downturn with US$500M inflows 
• XRP ETFs launch strong despite 35% quarterly drop 
• Macro headwinds persist, volatility remains the trade 

Introduction

This week in crypto was all about volatility and structural shifts. Bitcoin led the sell-off, sliding nearly 8% as liquidation cascades, and ETF outflows amplified downside pressure. Multi-year support broke, leaving over 70% of holders underwater, while traders watched US$85K as the key pivot for near-term direction. Ethereum mirrored the weakness, down over 9%, but the upcoming Fusaka upgrade on December 3 is shaping up as a major catalyst, with projections of a 5 - 10x boost in revenue capture. Altcoins told a different story: Solana ETFs attracted US$500M in inflows across 18 straight sessions, and XRP ETFs launched strongly despite price softness.

Macro risk remains a headwind, with institutional flows rotating and November tracking US$3.55B in ETF outflows. For traders, this is a levels first market, liquidity zones, funding rates, and ETF prints will define the next move. Volatility isn’t going anywhere.

Weekly trading stats as of Monday, November 24th at 11:00 AM AEDT, based on data from TradingView in USD.

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Bitcoin tests multi-year support as liquidations surge

Crypto markets endured another volatile week, with Bitcoin leading the sell-off and setting the tone for risk assets. BTC opened at US$94,261, briefly touched US$96,043, then plunged to US$80,600 before closing at US$86,830, a 7.88% weekly decline. The move was driven by heavy ETF outflows, cascading liquidations in derivatives, and a clear risk-off tilt across global markets.

Critically, Bitcoin broke below US$83,000, a level aligned with the 100-week SMA, before stabilising in the US$84,000 - US$87,000 liquidity zone. Attempts to reclaim momentum stalled near US$88,000, now acting as first resistance ahead of US$90,500 and US$95,000. From a structural perspective, this remains the deepest correction of the cycle. Multi-year support has been breached, leaving more than 70% of holders underwater, a classic capitulation backdrop.

Price action was dominated by derivatives imbalances, forced selling, and thin bids outside core zones. At the time of writing, BTC trades near US$86.6K. The outlook is twofold: a sustained reclaim above US$88K would confirm a bottom and open the path toward US$95K, while failure could see a decisive break below US$85,204 and a slide toward US$80K, where deeper liquidity sits.

For traders, this is a levels first market. Map liquidity pools, monitor open interest and basis, and look for reduced funding rates and stabilising OI as confirmation of a turn, rather than front-running a bounce.

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ETF flows signal risk-off regime amid rotation

Institutional flows were mixed but added fuel to volatility. Spot Bitcoin ETFs printed US$238.47M of net inflows midweek, yet November is tracking a US$3.55B net outflow after October’s US$3.42B inflow. Net assets fell to US$110.11B from US$147.73B last month, now 6.53% of Bitcoin’s market cap. Liquidity remains robust, with US$11.02B traded on November 21, but there’s clear rotation across issuers: IBIT posted US$122M outflows while FBTC and GBTC attracted US$108M and US$61M respectively. This looks more like sponsor rotation than a wholesale exit, but the risk off regime is intact. Practically, that means secondary market depth is still there for entries and exits, but primary flow is price sensitive and quick to fade when volatility spikes.

Ethereum drops 9% but Fusaka upgrade could flip the script

Ethereum mirrored the broader markets weakness. ETH opened at US$3,095.29, hit US$3,223.38, slid to US$2,623.57, and closed at US$2,802.16, down 9.47% for the week. Despite anticipation around the Fusaka upgrade on December 3, ETH traded with BTC as leverage unwound.

ETH is currently holding key support near US$2,800, above to the 200week SMA at US$2,4500. Resistance near US$3,000 capped bounces, with US$3,060 the level to reclaim for a more convincing trend repair.

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Solana ETFs defy downturn with record institutional demand

Altcoins were mixed, but two themes stood out: institutional demand for Solana exposure and evolving value capture across DeFi and payments. Solana proved relatively resilient, opening at US$137.17, ranging between US$144.80 and US$121.66, and closing at US$130.58 for a 4.80% decline. Strong ETF inflows, over US$500M across 18 consecutive sessions, helped cushion the drop, with Bitwise BSOL capturing around 90% of those flows. Support at US$120 held cleanly, while US$140 remains the pivot for bullish continuation.

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XRP ETFs hold strong despite price weakness

XRP had a volatile week, opening at US$2.2148, reaching US$2.3077, dipping to US$1.8209, and closing at US$2.0491, a 7.49% decline. Despite the price pressure, structural demand is building. Grayscale and Franklin Templeton are launching new XRP ETFs, adding depth to the institutional product suite. Total inflows have reached roughly US$410M even as XRP posted a 35% quarterly drop, underscoring appetite for exposure beyond spot markets. Technically, US$1.80 remains a critical support level, while US$2.20 caps upside for now.

Flows remain resilient. On November 21, XRP spot ETFs recorded US$11.89M in net inflows, lifting cumulative inflows to US$422.66M. Net assets stand at US$384.44M, about 0.33% of XRP’s market cap, with US$35.09M traded on the day. Bitwise led with US$11.28M, while Canary added US$619K. Premiums were modest at +0.40% and +0.41%, signalling healthy tracking and functional liquidity.

For traders, the key question is whether these flows persist, and spreads remain tight as volatility stays elevated. Meanwhile, Ripple explores XRP staking, reflecting a broader trend toward improved value capture, a theme likely to define 2026 as digital assets shift from speculative narratives to sustainable economics.

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Macro headwinds keep volatility front and centre

Macro remains a headwind. Record ETF outflows earlier in the month highlighted institutional repositioning under volatility, even as structural demand for Bitcoin exposure persists. Regulatory clarity and long term allocation strategies continue to underpin the thesis, but near term flows are driven by risk and liquidity conditions.

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Closing thoughts

The coming week hinges on whether BTC can hold above US$85,204 and base in the US$84,000 to US$87,000 zone. A stabilisation in funding, narrowing futures basis, and declining long liquidations would support the bottoming case, with US$88K then US$90,500 as upside gates toward US$95K.

If sellers regain control, watch US$85,204 and US$83,500 for defence, with US$80,000 the next major liquidity pool. For ETH, Fusaka is the catalyst; expect positioning to build into December 3, with US$2,650 as the musthold support and US$2,950 - US$3,050 the resistance band to reclaim. Altcoin flows suggest selective institutionalconfidence, Solana leadership and new XRP structures, but treat these as flowdriven trades untilbroader risk improves. As always, prioritise clarity over hype: trade the levels, monitor ETF prints and derivatives positioning, and keep macro in view. Volatility remains the opportunity, not the trend.

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