Bulls are back in charge as Bitcoin hits new highs

The cryptocurrency market regained bullish momentum this week, as Bitcoin (BTC) surged to a new all-time high of US$122K. This breakout signals the market's maturity and its ability to turn consolidation into upward momentum, in step with record highs in U.S. finance markets.

Optimism was further fuelled by expectations around the U.S. House of Representatives’ upcoming ‘Crypto Week’ (July 14-18), during which members are expected to vote on the GENIUS Act. If passed, the bill would allow private companies to issue stablecoins.

The weekly trading stats as of Monday, July 14th at 10:00 AM AEST, based on data from TradingView in USD.

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BTC hits new all-time-high of US$122K

After a period of healthy consolidation, Bitcoin delivered a powerful breakout in Sunday’s trading session, gaining 9.05% over the week to touch US$119,488. It closed at US$119,086 before pushing through US$122,000 on Monday's open.

This decisive move through previous resistance levels underscores strong buying pressure and conviction from the market. If Bitcoin sustains the key support level of US$111K following this breakthrough, it could mark a springboard for further upward movement. Short-term resistance levels to watch include the psychological thresholds of US$120K and US$125K.

However, the longer-term charts (4-hour and daily) show signs of bearish divergence, where prices rise while momentum weakens. This suggests the immediate run may be softening ahead of a possible re-test of the US$111K support. As always, watch out for global market makers going “stop-hunting,” targeting stop-loss orders as they aggressively test liquidation levels at both support and resistance.

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Macro trends support risk appetite

The broader market sentiment over the past week was shaped by a mix of evolving macroeconomic narratives and easing geopolitical issues in the Middle East. Markets also continued to digest the potential for Federal Reserve rate cuts later in 2025 and provide a supportive backdrop for risk assets. The broader rally in global equities reinforced this increased risk appetite, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new highs.

Local traders in Australia were surprised by the RBA’s decision to maintain current interest rates despite inflation being within the target 2-3% band. Expectations remain high for an August cut.

Institutional inflows drive sector gains

The past week continued to highlight the increasing institutionalisation of the crypto market, with significant capital inflows shaping sector trends. Bitcoin stole the limelight as its dominance rose to 65% with Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs), including spot ETFs, continuing to see substantial net inflows. These institutional vehicles are actively absorbing a significant amount of Bitcoin, which is likely to help with upward momentum.

Ethereum (ETH) surged 20% this week from its period of consolidation from US$2.5K to hit the current key level of resistance of US$3K. The move was supported by continued institutional interest in risk-on assets and anticipation ahead of ‘Crypto Week’. ETH saw inflows of just over US$907M into the ETH Spot ETFs this week, the highest weekly inflows in the past 12 months.

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XRP has also broken out of its period of consolidation following the announcement of its partnership with BNY as custodian for its proposed stablecoin. The timing appears strategic, as stablecoins are expected to feature prominently during ‘Crypto Week’.

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Another major development this week was the successful launch of the Solana (SOL) ETF on July 9th, which immediately saw US$78M in inflows. The launch marks a pivotal moment for altcoin investment products, further validating Solana as a key layer-1 blockchain in traditional finance and opening new avenues for institutional capital.

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‘Crypto Week’ and CPI take centre stage

For the week ahead, watch for the fallout from new and increasingly uncertain U.S. trade tariffs, with multiple rate increases announced at the tail end of last week.

On the macroeconomic front, a key highlight will be any commentary or data on U.S. inflation - particularly CPI data due Tuesday - and interest rate expectations, following the dovish tone in the FOMC minutes.

Locally, continued commentary from the RBA on inflation, employment, and the broader economic outlook will also be important for AUD-denominated crypto assets and investor sentiment.

This week may also bring increased regulatory clarity on digital assets and stablecoins during ‘Crypto Week’. Expectations are high, so be mindful of a potential ‘sell the news’ reaction, with some gains likely priced in the past week.

Closing thoughts

Traders and investors need to stay across market signals, global trends, and major developments in crypto. Bitcoin’s breakout last week highlights strong momentum, but with important economic data and sector news on the horizon, the next moves should be watched closely.

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