Crypto edges higher on soft US jobs data

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Introduction

Global markets faced mixed signals this week, and the spotlight was firmly on the United States. A steep payroll revision exposed cracks in the labour market as unemployment climbed to its highest level in three years. Softer producer price data, however, offered some relief and strengthened the case for a US Federal Reserve rate cut as soon as this month.

Elsewhere, Europe grappled with weaker retail activity and a small uptick in inflation, while China’s falling prices kept deflation risks in focus. Japan saw modest gains in wages and spending, adding to speculation that the Bank of Japan may slowly pivot from its ultra-loose stance. Australia, meanwhile, reported steady growth but softer consumer confidence heading into September.

For crypto, the macro backdrop reinforced consolidation. Bitcoin steadied near US$114K on the back of strong ETF inflows, Ethereum lagged on weaker flows, and altcoins such as Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin found support from more specific catalysts.

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State of crypto

• Bitcoin holds steady near US$114K as ETF inflows approach US$1B
• Ethereum struggles for momentum while holding above US$4.3K
• Solana extends rally above US$220 on rising chain activity
• XRP tests resistance at US$3.05 with momentum improving
• Altcoins diverge as meme coins rally and institutions add exposure

Bitcoin holds steady near US$114K as ETF inflows approach US$1B

Bitcoin remained the focal point for institutional flows, consolidating around US$113.7K within a US$112K–116K band. On shorter timeframes, moving averages flattened and RSI stayed mid-range, pointing to market equilibrium rather than momentum. On the daily chart, BTC respected the 200-day moving average, with support at US$111–112K and resistance near US$116K. Liquidation heatmaps showed clusters of leveraged positions above US$116K and below US$112K, highlighting volatility risks. A move higher could trigger a short squeeze into the US$118K–120K range, while a drop could flush longs toward US$110K.

ETF inflows added a decisive layer of support. Bitcoin products attracted about US$917M over the week, lifting cumulative totals to nearly US$55B. The US jobs revision reinforced Bitcoin’s role as a liquidity-sensitive asset. Price softened on weak labour data but firmed on cooling inflation, with macro signals continuing to anchor sentiment even as trading stayed range bound.

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Ethereum struggles for momentum while holding above US$4.3K

Ethereum traded between US$4,200–4,400 this week and stayed just above its 200-day EMA. Momentum weakened compared with Bitcoin, with RSI readings showing limited strength. Support remained between US$4,175–4,300, while resistance above US$4,500 continued to cap rallies.

ETF activity showed softer demand. Ethereum products recorded about US$60M in weekly outflows, in contrast to Bitcoin’s near-US$1B of inflows. Cumulative totals held close to US$23B. Institutions still view Ethereum as a vehicle for staking and ecosystem exposure, but short-term flows and technicals showed it struggling to match Bitcoin’s macro-driven narrative.

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Solana extends rally above US$220 on rising chain activity

Solana continued its role as the standout among large-cap alts, rising 6.6% over the week to around US$223. Total Value Locked (TVL) on the Solana blockchain increased more than 57% to US$12.27B on Tuesday, up from multi-month lows of US$7.8B in June. A resurgence in Solana’s meme coin markets added further momentum.

SOL traded well above its 200-day MA at US$158, with the US$190–200 zone now acting as support. ETF speculation also reinforced sentiment, as traders anticipated that product diversification beyond BTC and ETH could favour assets like SOL. RSI readings showed the token approaching short-term overbought levels, though broader momentum remained strong.

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XRP tests resistance at US$3.05 with momentum improving

XRP consolidated near US$2.98, with resistance at US$3.05 repeatedly tested. RSI signals improving momentum, while support at US$2.49 underpins a constructive higher-timeframe trend. XRP’s recovery after prior pullbacks illustrates selective trader rotation toward assets with clear narratives, such as cross-border payments and regulatory clarity.

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Altcoins diverge as meme coins rally and institutions add exposure

Altcoin performance was uneven this week, underscoring selective rather than broad-based allocation. Hyperliquid (HYPE) gained 19.5% to a new all-time high as active users on HyperEVM and HyperCore climbed to 181,500, with VanEck praising its technology and governance. Dogecoin (DOGE) rose 10.1% in line with the anticipated EFT launch and broader meme coin momentum.

Stablecoins remained central to liquidity as competition intensified. Paxos announced a new product expected to rival Circle’s USDC, with projections suggesting USDH could trim USDC’s supply by as much as 7%. Innovation in revenue-sharing models also highlighted how stablecoins reinforce structural liquidity across DeFi.

Institutional adoption added further support. Metaplanet raised US$1.4B for Bitcoin purchases, Strive outlined a US$1.5B raise, and QMMM Holdings added US$100M to its crypto treasury. Public companies now collectively hold more than 1M BTC, reinforcing Bitcoin’s role as a strategic reserve. BTC dominance eased to 58.4% from 66% earlier in the year, reflecting growth in altcoins while still underscoring Bitcoin’s anchor position.

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Crypto Fear & Greed Index

Source: Fear & Greed Index

BTC Markets in the news

Cointelegraph: Crypto traders’ current fear won’t last long, analysts say

Charlie Sherry, head of finance at the BTC Markets crypto exchange, told Cointelegraph that trader sentiment tends to go into extremes in both directions. When traders lean heavily bearish, it can often mark the end of that move rather than the start.

“If Bitcoin reclaims US$117,000, I think sentiment would swiftly swing back; we have already seen early signs of that on Bitcoin’s recent bounce to current levels,” Sherry said.

The Block: Bitcoin stalls around US$110,000; Fed rate cut may not spark rally, analyst says

"The soft U.S. jobs report did create expectations for a more dovish US Federal Reserve, which is normally supportive for risk assets like bitcoin," said Rachael Lucas, crypto analyst at BTC Markets.

"However, the market had already priced in some degree of policy easing. At the same time, we're seeing profit-taking by institutional desks, while ETF flows remain relatively flat."

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The week ahead: Economic events

Thursday, September 11th 

• Euro Area Deposit Facility Rate, Interest Rate
• United States Core Inflation Rate MoM, Core Inflation Rate, Inflation Rate MoM, Inflation Rate

Friday, September 12th

• United Kingdom Monthly GDP MoM
• United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Monday, September 15th

• China Industrial Production, Retail Sales YoY

Tuesday, September 16th

• United Kingdom Unemployment Rate
• Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index
• Canada Inflation Rate
• US Retail Sales

Wednesday, September 17th

• Japan Balance of Trade
• United Kingdom Inflation Rate
• United States Building Permits, Housing Starts
• Canada Interest Rate

Source: Trading Economics

Market reflections

• United States: Jobs revision exposes weakness as inflation pressures ease
• Eurozone: Retail sales slip while inflation edges up to 2.1%
• China: Deflation deepens as CPI and PPI both decline in August
• Japan: Wages and spending rise as GDP revised higher
• Australia: GDP grows 0.6% in Q2 but sentiment falters in September

United States: Jobs revision exposes weakness as inflation pressures ease

The US delivered a series of data points that painted a more fragile picture of the economy. The ISM services index rose to 52.0 in August, pointing to modest expansion. Producer prices cooled to 2.6% year on year, down from 3.1% in July, reinforcing the trend of easing inflation.

The BLS payroll revision removed 911,000 jobs from counts, the steepest adjustment in at least 25 years. Together with only 22,000 jobs added in August and unemployment climbing to 4.3%, the data revealed that labour market conditions are weaker than earlier reports suggested. Bond markets responded with softer yields, and futures now price in a high probability of multiple Fed cuts before year-end.

For crypto, this backdrop signals a more constructive liquidity environment, with steady ETF inflows into Bitcoin showing that institutions are already positioning for policy easing.

Eurozone: Retail sales slip while inflation edges up to 2.1%

July retail sales fell 0.5% month on month, while August inflation edged up to 2.1% year on year. With core inflation cooling and GDP growth slowing, the ECB faced a delicate balancing act. Yields across the bloc stayed steady, and markets expected cautious messaging from policymakers.

For crypto, the impact remained indirect. Muted euro area growth did little to drive global liquidity but reinforced the cautious global backdrop.

China: Deflation deepens as CPI and PPI both decline in August

China’s August CPI fell 0.4% year on year, while PPI dropped 2.9%. Export growth slowed to its weakest pace in six months, underscoring fragile global demand. Authorities announced targeted support measures, but broad stimulus remained absent. Markets largely looked past the weak data, with equities gaining mid-week on global rate-cut optimism.

For crypto, China’s deflation risk increased the likelihood of further stimulus, which could underpin stronger regional liquidity flows.

Japan: Wages and spending rise as GDP revised higher

Japan’s data showed resilience, with real wages rising 0.5% year on year, nominal cash earnings growing 4.1%, and household spending increasing 1.4%. Q2 GDP was revised to +0.5% quarter on quarter. These figures bolstered speculation that the Bank of Japan could gradually move away from its ultra-loose policy stance.

For crypto, a tightening policy path may encourage a more cautious approach toward risk assets such as digital currencies.

Australia: GDP grows 0.6% in Q2 as sentiment weakens

Australia’s Q2 GDP increased 0.6% quarter on quarter and 1.8% year on year, supported by household consumption and net exports. September consumer sentiment, however, dropped 3.1%, tempering optimism. The RBA remained cautious, balancing steady growth with pockets of weaker confidence.

For crypto, stable growth and the prospect of easing later in 2025 could support risk appetite, although household caution may limit retail participation in the short term.

Closing thoughts: Consolidation with an eye on policy shifts

This week reinforced that crypto remains closely tied to the global policy cycle. Macro signals from the US, Europe, and Asia kept markets cautious, while expectations for rate cuts began to build.

For crypto, the message is one of resilience in transition. Bitcoin retained its role as the anchor asset, Ethereum struggled to attract flows, and altcoins like Solana and Dogecoin found support from targeted narratives rather than broad rallies. Stablecoin and DeFi innovation continued to deepen structural liquidity, showing how the ecosystem evolves even in quieter phases.

The broader takeaway is patience. With policy easing on the horizon but not yet assured, consolidation looks set to persist. Longer term, institutional adoption and market infrastructure leave crypto better positioned for when the next decisive move arrives.

Scam alert

Romance scams: Protect your heart and your money

Scammers use dating apps, social media, and gaming platforms to build fake relationships. They gain trust, then target your money or personal information.

They may give constant attention, move conversations to private apps, and eventually ask for financial help. This can include requests to send money, invest in fake crypto schemes, or transfer funds on their behalf. Some also request personal images and later use them for blackmail.

Warning signs

• The relationship develops quickly and seems too good to be true.
• They avoid video calls and in-person meetings.
• They pressure you to move conversations to private messaging apps.
• They ask you to send crypto, open accounts, or transfer funds.
• They discourage you from telling family or friends.
• Their profile lacks detail or contains inconsistencies.

How to stay safe

• Avoid sending money or crypto to someone you haven’t met in person.
• Be cautious of investment “opportunities” from online contacts.
• Use reverse image search to check profile photos.
• Don’t keep the relationship secret. Talk to someone you trust if something feels off.
• Never transfer money for someone else. It could involve you in a crime.

Report scams and find more advice at scamwatch.gov.au.

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