Crypto holds key support as Fed division deepens

Google reviews

"10 years with these guys. They always deliver. Support is also excellent.” – Michael, 5-star review

If you've had a great experience with BTC Markets, we'd love to hear from you! Leave us a review on Google today.

Introduction

Last week’s US Federal Reserve rate cut was widely anticipated, sending fresh signals that policy may be easing. Key indices pushed to new highs, and early commentary suggested rare unity among Fed officials despite signs of weakness emerging in the labour market. A week later, that unity has started to fracture.

Newly appointed governor Stephen Miran argued that rates should be 2% lower, diverging from Chair Jerome Powell’s “wait and see” stance. Governor Michelle Bowman warned the Fed may already be lagging in addressing labour market risks. The debate has shifted from inflation to employment, adding to uncertainty. With a potential U.S. government shutdown looming on 30 September, the macro backdrop has become more unsettled. These crosscurrents are feeding into financial markets, creating mixed signals for investors.

For crypto, the impact was immediate. Bitcoin slipped toward US$112K early in the week as shutdown risks weighed on risk appetite. Market structure also added pressure, with repeated failures to break resistance near US$116K. This combination of macro uncertainty and technical barriers kept digital assets in consolidation mode, even as ETF flows remained supportive in the background.

Check prices on the BTC Markets exchange.

State of crypto

• Bitcoin holds below US$116K as macro jitters limit momentum
• Ethereum slips toward US$4.1K as institutional flows weaken
• Solana extends rally above US$220 on strong ecosystem strength
• XRP stalls under US$3.00 despite improving technical momentum
• Altcoin performance diverges as BTC dominance eases near 58.5%
• Spot ETF flows remain supportive with Bitcoin inflows leading

Bitcoin holds below US$116K as macro jitters limit momentum

Bitcoin began the week under pressure, with macroeconomic events weighing in on risk appetite. Equally, with Bitcoin repeatedly testing overhead resistance near US$116K without a breakout, momentum has shown signs of stalling, leading to the leveraged longs seeming to become exposed. Liquidation clusters just below US$113K were triggered, accelerating the drop to ~US$112K. Support emerged at that zone, helping stabilise the short-term price. On shorter timeframes, the RSI dipped towards oversold, while the daily chart shows BTC still holding well above its 200-day moving average (~US$104K), keeping the broader uptrend intact.

The weakness wasn’t isolated to Bitcoin. Ether and Solana both fell more than 7%, highlighting how sentiment pressure and liquidation flows extended across the majors. ETH remains hampered by resistance above US$4,300, while SOL has traded more reactively to speculative ETF headlines and a short-lived positive memecoin cycle. Compared with these sharper altcoin losses, Bitcoin’s decline was shallower, reinforcing its role as the sector’s anchor.

For traders, the takeaway appears to be clearer. BTC remains structurally stronger than many alts, but volatility around US$112K–116K will likely define short-term direction. Ongoing macro uncertainty may create short-term volatility.

Check BTC

Ethereum slips toward US$4.1K as institutional flows weaken

Ethereum’s 4-hour chart has slipped below its 200-MA (~US$4,450), with RSI approaching oversold territory in the low 30s. This signals short-term downside pressure, though a rebound could emerge if buyers step in at the psychological US$4,000. On the daily chart, ETH is still trending higher overall, holding well above its 200-day MA (~US$2,910). A sustained close back above US$4,350 would help restore bullish momentum.

Check ETH

Solana extends rally above US$220 on strong ecosystem strength

Solana has seen sharper swings. The 4-hour chart shows a pullback from recent highs near US$240, with price now testing the cluster of moving averages around US$212–217. RSI is subdued near 30, flagging short-term oversold conditions. On the daily timeframe, SOL maintains a higher-low structure, with the 200-day MA (~US$164) marking key support. If buying interest returns, the US$226–230 zone is the next resistance to watch.

Overall, majors are pausing after recent rallies. Momentum indicators suggest some cooling in the short term, but the longer-term structure for BTC, ETH, XRP, and SOL remains constructive, provided key moving average supports continue to hold.

Check SOL

XRP stalls under US$3.00 despite improving technical momentum

XRP shows resilience, with the 4-hour chart holding near the 200-MA (~US$2.94) after an earlier dip. RSI has bounced from the mid-30s to the high-50s, hinting at stabilisation. The daily chart highlights a constructive longer-term structure, with the 200-day MA down at US$2.53 providing a strong support base. As long as price stays above that level, the bias leans upward, though resistance at US$3.00 may trigger profit-taking.

Check XRP

Altcoin performance diverges as BTC dominance eases near 58.5%

The total crypto market capitalisation has traded in a broad range over the past month, peaking at ~US$4.2 trillion in mid-September before easing back to ~US$3.9T. Trading volumes have remained steady, averaging ~US$150B daily, with a noticeable dip during early September, followed by stronger activity into the recent pullback. This suggests traders are selectively positioning rather than committing to broad market exposure.

BTC dominance is stabilising near ~58.5% after a multi-week slide. That steadier read usually signals that Bitcoin is setting the tone while altcoins follow rather than lead. If dominance rises, it often reflects defensive positioning and heavier ETF demand. With dominance pausing and flows still BTC-heavy, the base case seems to be it is a majors-first market now.

Among the top 20 coins, Avalanche (AVAX) was the standout performer, gaining over 14% in the past week, with this appearing to be supported by the recent news that the Avalanche Foundation is reportedly working on raising $1 billion from institutional investors. On the downside, Solana (SOL) and Dogecoin (DOGE) both declined by more than 10%, with Ethereum (ETH) and Sui (SUI) with these retracing following earlier strong rallies.

Overall, the sector appears to be consolidating after recent highs. Bitcoin dominance remains steady, signalling that majors are still anchoring sentiment, while altcoin performance is increasingly driven by token-specific factors. For investors, this week highlights the importance of selectivity over relying on broad market momentum.

Check AVAX

Check LINK

Spot ETF flows remain supportive with Bitcoin inflows leading

ETF flows have softened this week, with net activity showing a more cautious tone across both Bitcoin and Ethereum products. Institutions appear to be trimming positions rather than adding aggressively, reflecting a market that is still digesting macroeconomic uncertainty and the recent price swings.

For Bitcoin ETFs, cumulative net inflows since inception stand at US$57.3B. After a strong performance last week, daily BTC funds have recorded net outflows so far this week, in line with the softening price.

Ethereum ETFs have attracted cumulative net inflows of US$23.9B to date. Despite strong performance last week, ETH has seen net outflows again this week, mirroring its declining price.

Overall, ETF flows point to steady long-term interest but fading momentum week-on-week. Institutions appear more selective, with Bitcoin retaining its role as the primary anchor while Ethereum demand eases.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index

Source: Fear & Greed Index

BTC Markets in the news

The Block: Bitcoin falls below US$114,500 after FOMC hype fades; market shows 'nervous optimism'

"Investors are cautious, long-term holders aren’t panicking, but short-term traders are restless. On-chain data shows holders aren’t selling, so sentiment is more 'nervous optimism' than outright fear," said Rachael Lucas, crypto analyst at BTC Markets.

Announcements

Introducing your new portfolio experience

Managing your crypto on BTC Markets has just become easier and more intuitive. We’ve upgraded your dashboard to deliver a brand-new portfolio experience.

With Simple Trade, you’ll get a clearer picture of your holdings and greater control over your investment decisions.

What’s included in this release

We’ve brought together the features that matter most, giving you a solid foundation to track and manage your crypto.

• Portfolio tracking
  See the total value of your portfolio and monitor changes over time.
• Crypto holdings
  Get a breakdown of your holdings and balances.
• Unrealised profit & loss
  View how your portfolio and individual assets are performing with unrealised profit & loss.
• Quick actions
  Quickly transact from your portfolio to manage your assets efficiently - whether it’s buying, selling or transferring.

You can access your new portfolio via the ‘Get started’ link below or by clicking the 'Simple Trade' link in the navigation bar on the exchange platform.

Get started

Statement on Developing an Innovative Australian Digital Asset Industry

The Albanese Government’s draft legislation for digital asset platforms is a welcome step for Australia’s crypto sector. Clear and proportionate regulation builds trust while encouraging innovation.

BTC Markets welcomes the opportunity to contribute to the consultation process and support the development of a regulatory framework that empowers Australians to confidently engage in the digital asset economy.

Learn more

Australia FIX Conference 2025

The Australia FIX Trading Community Conference will take place in Sydney on 22 October.

This year’s agenda features high-level discussions on market structure, regulatory change, and the technologies driving next-generation trading.

Rachael Lucas, Head of Marketing & Communications at BTC Markets, will join the panel “Digital Assets & Tokenization: A Strategic Side Note” to share her perspective on crypto’s role in modern market infrastructure.

Learn more

The week ahead: Economic events

Thursday, September 25th

• Germany GfK Consumer Climate
• United States Durable Goods Orders, GDP Growth Rate, Existing Home Sales

Friday, September 26th

• United States Core PCE Price Index MoM, Personal Income, Personal Spending

Tuesday, September 30th

• China NBS Manufacturing PMI, RatingDog Manufacturing PMI
• Australia Interest Rate
• France Inflation Rate
• Italy Inflation Rate
• Germany Inflation Rate
• United States Job Openings

Wednesday, October 1st

• Japan Business Confidence
• Euro Area Inflation Rate
• United States ISM Manufacturing PMI

Source: Trading Economics

Market reflections

• United States: PMI slows as housing posts strongest growth since 2022
• Eurozone: Composite PMI hits 16-month high but recovery stays uneven
• China: Industrial production and retail sales cool as PBoC holds rates steady
• Japan: Manufacturing weakens as BoJ signals gradual policy shift
• Australia: Inflation edges higher while jobs market softens

United States: PMI slows as housing posts strongest growth since 2022

In the U.S., the data flow was mixed. September’s flash composite PMI slipped to 53.6 from 54.6 in August as manufacturing and services both slowed, and firms reported absorbing tariff‑driven input costs without fully passing them on to customers. Meanwhile, the housing sector offered a surprising bright spot, with August new‑home sales surging 20.5% month on month to an annualised 800,000. This represented its highest since January 2022, while the median price slipped to US$413,500.

On the labour front, weekly jobless claims reversed course, falling to 231k in the week ending 13 September and pushing the four‑week average lower, though payroll gains slowed markedly.The US Fed’s 0.25% rate cut responded partly to softer labour momentum. Market pricing appears to indicate further cuts later in 2025.

For crypto markets, easier Fed policy and robust housing could support risk sentiment, though higher long‑term yields may temper speculation somewhat.

Eurozone: Composite PMI hits 16-month high but recovery stays uneven

In the euro area, the narrative was more nuanced. The HCOB flash composite PMI rose to 51.2 in September from 51.0 in August, a 16‑month high, as services activity strengthened and Germany’s PMI jumped to 52.4. Yet France’s PMI fell sharply to 48.4, underscoring the block’s uneven recovery. With inflation still above target but decelerating, the European Central Bank kept its deposit rate at 2% and signalled it sees the policy stance as appropriate.

For crypto, an improving growth outlook coupled with a patient ECB could stabilise euro‑denominated stablecoins and reduce macro‑driven volatility. However, the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties mean eurozone macro surprises will continue to influence risk appetite.

China: Industrial production and retail sales cool as PBoC holds rates steady

China delivered a set of softer figures that illustrate the delicate balancing act facing policymakers. Industrial production grew 5.2% year-on-year in August, down from 5.7% in July and the slowest pace since August 2024. Manufacturing output eased to 5.7% while energy‑sector output rose only 2.4%. Retail sales expanded just 3.4% year-on-year, the weakest reading since last November. Despite this slowdown, the People’s Bank of China left its one‑year and five‑year loan‑prime rates at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively for a fourth consecutive month.

For crypto traders, a cautious PBoC limits the prospect of large liquidity injections that could spill over into digital assets. That said, any surprise policy easing or renewed trade tensions could prompt sharp swings in regional risk sentiment and cross‑border capital flows.

Japan: Manufacturing weakens as BoJ signals gradual policy shift

Japan’s data highlighted the fragile nature of its recovery. The flash manufacturing PMI fell to 48.4 in September from 49.7, its lowest since March, while services held at 53.0 and the composite PMI eased to 51.1. On the policy front, the Bank of Japan kept its short‑term rate at 0.5 %. Two board members dissented, advocating a rate hike to 0.75 %. The decision signals growing confidence that Japan can move away from years of ultra‑easy stimulus.

For crypto investors, a firmer yen and higher Japanese yields could mean reduced outbound capital flows into overseas assets, including digital currencies. However, the BoJ’s cautious approach means liquidity probably remains ample for now.

Australia: Inflation edges higher while jobs market softens

Australia’s macro picture presented a familiar tension between inflation and growth. The monthly CPI accelerated to 3.0% year on year in August, up from 2.8%, while a trimmed‑mean measure slipped to 2.6%. Employment unexpectedly fell by 5,400 in August, with full‑time positions down 40,900, although the unemployment rate held at 4.2%. These opposing signals prompted traders to pare back expectations for a short-term rate cut.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has already delivered 0.75% of cuts this year. Markets now expect it to hold the cash rate at 3.6% at its late‑September meeting and likely to begin easing again in 2026.

For crypto, a firmer AUD and delayed RBA easing could dampen local participation, but the combination of relatively high real rates and a slowing labour market could still justify cautious risk‑taking once global conditions stabilise.

Closing thoughts: Macro divides, crypto holds its ground

Markets finish the week balancing Fed easing hopes with fresh economic uncertainty. Crypto’s pullback shows how quickly volatility can hit when policy signals clash with stretched positioning. Bitcoin still holds above key supports, keeping the broader uptrend intact, while ETF flows confirm steady institutional interest. Altcoins, however, remain more reactive to token-specific news. 

Scam alert

AFL footy finals ticket scams in Australia

With AFL footy finals and major concerts driving demand, scammers are exploiting fans with fake sales, cloned websites, and duplicate QR codes.

In 2024, Australians lost more than A$26 million to ticket scams, with many victims pressured into paying via cryptocurrency or gift cards, fast, irreversible methods that leave buyers with nothing.

Protect yourself by purchasing only from official ticket providers, double-checking website addresses, and using secure payment methods.

Red flags to watch for

• Tickets offered only through social media or unverified marketplaces.
• Prices that seem too good to be true.
• Sellers refusing secure payments, requesting crypto or gift cards.
• New or anonymous profiles often based overseas.
• Websites with subtle spelling or domain errors.

How to stay safe

• Buy tickets only from official providers or authorised resale platforms.
• Double-check website addresses before entering payment details.
• Confirm with friends directly if they appear to be “selling” tickets online.
• Avoid posting ticket images on social media, which can be reused by scammers.
• Use secure payment methods, such as credit cards, which may offer more protection.

Report suspicious wallet addresses or websites to BTC Markets via our app or website.

Stay up to date on the latest news in the crypto space.

Sign up for free and join over 374,000 Australian traders who receive the BTC Markets Weekly Crypto Wrap.

Subscribe to our status page for live system updates or follow us on X.

Feedback

If you have any feedback on our newsletter or want to request specific content, please submit a support ticket and we will respond shortly.

Disclaimer: The information provided on this page is issued by BTC Markets Pty Ltd (BTC Markets, we, us, our). The information is general only and is not intended to constitute an opinion or recommendation with respect to its contents. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any reference to past performance is intended to be for general illustrative purposes only. The information cannot be relied upon for any purposes and is not intended to be a substitute for professional advice.

The information does not purport to be complete, accurate or contain all of the information that a person may require to make a decision. It may also contain forward looking statements, which are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors. We recommend you obtain professional advice before making any decision with respect to the matters discussed in this document. To the maximum extent permitted by law, BTC Markets will have no liability for any loss or liability of any kind: (i) arising in respect of the information contained (or not contained) on this page; or (ii) arising from a person relying on any information or statement contained on this page. The information provided is only intended for recipients in Australia. This information cannot be reproduced without our prior written permission.