Crypto inches higher as ETF demand steadies near record levels

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Introduction

The past week reflected a steady global outlook, with signs of cooling demand but no clear weakness. In the U.S., business surveys showed softer momentum, while Europe’s inflation remained slightly above target and Asia’s data hinted at stabilisation across key economies.

For crypto markets, this backdrop kept sentiment balanced. ETF inflows held firm after Bitcoin’s recent all-time high, and broader participation remained steady. With most central banks appearing past their tightening peaks, investors continued to view digital assets as a strategic diversifier in a moderating macro environment.

Check prices on the BTC Markets exchange.

State of crypto

• ETF demand holds steady as traders consolidate near record levels
• Bitcoin consolidates around US$123K after record inflows of US$2.1B
• Ethereum stabilises near US$4.5K amid firm institutional participation
• Solana hovers around US$223 as ecosystem metrics remain strong
• Total crypto market cap holds above US$4T, reflecting sustained risk appetite

ETF demand holds steady as traders consolidate near record levels

ETF flows continued to underpin sentiment across digital assets this week. Bitcoin and Ethereum products recorded combined net inflows of about US$2.7B, signalling steady institutional participation even as price action slowed. Broader trading volumes remained stable, suggesting investors are maintaining positions rather than chasing new highs. The data reflects a market that is confident but cautious, consolidating after record-level rallies in late September.

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Bitcoin consolidates around US$123K after record inflows of US$2.1B

Bitcoin led overall sentiment, trading near US$123K after setting a fresh all-time high of US$126.2K earlier in the week. ETF inflows reached US$2.1B, reinforcing continued institutional interest. The asset stayed above its 50- and 200-day moving averages, suggesting that trend strength remains intact. Support sits near US$120K, while resistance remains close to US$126K. Traders appear focused on managing exposure ahead of key macro data, keeping BTC range-bound but resilient.

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Ethereum stabilises near US$4.5K amid firm institutional participation

Ethereum followed a similar pattern, holding near US$4.5K after briefly testing US$4.75K. Weekly ETF inflows of about US$590M underscored steady institutional engagement, though still trailing Bitcoin’s pace. ETH remains above its 50- and 200-day moving averages, confirming the broader uptrend. Momentum has cooled from recent overbought levels, indicating consolidation rather than weakness. Together, BTC and ETH continue to anchor market confidence as volatility normalises.

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Solana hovers around US$223 as ecosystem metrics remain strong

Attention then shifted toward Solana, which traded between US$215 and US$230 throughout the week. The network continued to post encouraging data, including higher stablecoin balances and elevated on-chain activity. ETF speculation around potential 2026 listings also kept sentiment constructive. Resistance is visible near US$230–240, with strong layered support between US$215–218. Solana’s pattern of higher lows suggests a healthy, if slower, uptrend.

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Total crypto market cap holds above US$4T, reflecting sustained risk appetite

Across the broader market, total crypto capitalisation hovered around US$4.1T, recovering from late-September lows near US$3.7T. Trading volumes averaged US$190–200B, consistent with sustained investor participation. Bitcoin’s dominance edged higher toward 59%, highlighting its continued leadership in setting market tone. While altcoin performance stayed mixed, steady ETF flows and measured liquidity show that digital assets remain in a consolidation phase rather than a correction.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index

Source: Fear & Greed Index

BTC Markets in the news

news.com.au: Report reveals Baby Boomers are now jumping at crypto with whopping 723 per cent surge

Australia’s crypto demographics have shifted rapidly, with older Australians now among the leading adopters of digital assets, according to BTC Markets’ latest 2025 Investor Study Report.

Outgoing BTC Markets CEO Caroline Bowler said investor confidence had solidified amid recent booms.

“Our report shows Australians increasingly view digital assets as a long-term strategy. Businesses, institutions and private investors are actively exploring practical applications, and with clearer regulation on the horizon, the sector is poised for meaningful development,” she said.

AFR: Bitcoin hits record as ‘Uptober’ rally reaches fever pitch

“Retail sentiment is returning, with search interest, trading volumes, and social media engagement all on the rise,” said Rachael Lucas, an analyst at Australian cryptocurrency exchange BTC Markets. “If the current momentum holds, Uptober 2025 could mark the beginning of bitcoin’s next major move … [which] is already showing signs of a breakout.”

Bloomberg: Bitcoin’s Record Rally Fueled by Growing Bets in Options Markets

From here, traders expect to see resistance at $135,000, with $150,000 “in sight if momentum holds,” said Rachael Lucas, analyst at BTC Markets. “But with leverage building, any sharp reversal could trigger volatility.”

Ausbiz: "Uptober" unleashed

Bitcoin surges to record highs amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, according to Rachael Lucas of BTC Markets. Lucas points to significant ETF inflows, amounting to USD 3.24 billion, as a key driver, representing robust institutional interest.

Announcements

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Australia FIX Conference 2025

The Australia FIX Trading Community Conference will take place in Sydney on 22 October. This year’s agenda showcases high-level conversations on market structure, evolving regulations, and the technologies shaping the future of trading.

Rachael Lucas, Head of Marketing & Communications at BTC Markets, will join the panel “Digital Assets & Tokenization: A Strategic Side Note” to share her perspective on crypto’s role in modern market infrastructure.

Learn more

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BTC Markets has partnered once again with leading crypto tax software providers - Crypto Tax Calculator, Koinly, and Syla - to help make tax time easier (and more affordable) for our clients.

Take advantage of these exclusive offers and simplify your crypto tax reporting this financial year.

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The week ahead: Economic events

Thursday, October 9th

• United States Fed Funds Interest Rate
• Germany Balance of Trade

Friday, October 10th

• Canada Unemployment Rate
• United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Monday, October 13th

• China Balance of Trade, Exports YoY, Imports YoY

Tuesday, October 14th

• Australia Business Confidence, Interest Rate,
• United Kingdom Unemployment Rate
• Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index

Wednesday, October 15th

• China Inflation Rate
• United States Core Inflation Rate MoM, Core Inflation Rate, Inflation Rate MoM, Inflation Rate

Source: Trading Economics

Market reflections

• United States: Softer factory and labour data strengthen the case for Fed easing
• Eurozone: Inflation edges higher, tempering hopes for early rate cuts
• China: Mixed data show stabilising manufacturing but weak services momentum
• Japan: Services expansion offsets manufacturing softness as BoJ stays patient
• Australia: RBA holds rates steady as inflation uncertainty lingers

United States: Softer factory and labour data strengthen the case for Fed easing

The U.S. government shutdown continues, limiting the release of official data. Private indicators point to softer momentum, with the S&P Global manufacturing PMI easing to 52.0 in September and ADP private payrolls down by 32K. Initial jobless claims fell to 218K for the week ending 20 September, while the 10-year Treasury yield touched 4.18% as investors priced in the likelihood of two quarter-point Fed cuts by year-end. Softer data and mixed labour signals gently support the case for policy easing - typically a constructive backdrop for risk assets like crypto.

Eurozone: Inflation edges higher, tempering hopes for early rate cuts

Inflation showed early signs of re-acceleration, with headline CPI rising to 2.2% year on year and core inflation holding at 2.3%. Economic activity stabilised, while markets now see a limited likelihood of further ECB tightening. However, the higher inflation print may delay near-term rate cuts, keeping monetary policy cautious.

China: Mixed data show stabilising manufacturing but weak services momentum

China’s signals remained mixed. The Caixin services PMI eased to 52.9 as employment weakened, while manufacturing stabilised and August trade data showed a surplus of US$102.33B. Exports rose 4.4% year on year and imports gained 1.3%. Policymakers continue to favour targeted support measures over broad stimulus, balancing growth stability with inflation control.

Japan: Services expansion offsets manufacturing softness as BoJ stays patient

Japan’s services sector remained a bright spot, with the September PMI at 53.3, extending an eleven-month expansion supported by firm new orders and hiring. Manufacturing stayed weak at 48.5, marking another month of contraction. The Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-easy policy stance, noting that sustained wage growth remains a prerequisite for tightening.

Australia: RBA holds rates steady as inflation uncertainty lingers

Australia’s August trade surplus narrowed to A$1.8B, down from A$6.6B in July, driven by a 47% drop in gold exports and higher imports. PMIs moderated but stayed in expansion, with manufacturing at 51.4 and services at 52.4. The RBA kept the cash rate unchanged at 3.60% and flagged uncertainty around the inflation outlook, suggesting a cautious approach to further adjustments.

Closing thoughts: Steady policy, selective strength

Crypto markets are consolidating after record highs, with Bitcoin maintaining leadership through steady ETF demand and resilient institutional flows. Ethereum and Solana held key levels, while altcoin activity remained selective.

Across macro markets, growth and inflation data point to stability rather than acceleration. Liquidity remains supportive, keeping digital assets anchored near higher ranges as investors await clearer policy signals into year-end.

Scam alert

Product and service scams: Verify before you pay 

Online scammers pose as buyers or sellers to trick people into sending money or goods. They set up fake websites or impersonate trusted businesses, often using stolen logos, fake reviews, and even “.com.au” domains to look legitimate.

These scams happen through marketplace platforms, social media, or email. Some involve fake invoices or last-minute changes to payment details. Once the money is sent, the scammer disappears.

Warning signs 

• Prices that are unusually low or product claims that sound exaggerated.
• Missing Australian Business Number (ABN), privacy policy, or terms and conditions on the website.
• Buyers offering to overpay or purchase without seeing the item.
• Requests for payment through gift cards, money orders, or multiple accounts.
• Invoices for goods or services you never ordered.

How to stay safe 

• Verify the business using an ABN or official registration.
• Avoid unverified sellers or steep discounts on social media.
• Use secure payment methods like credit cards or PayPal.
• Confirm invoice and payment details directly with the supplier.
• Ensure the recipient’s name matches the payee when using PayID or bank transfers.

How to spot a fake website

• Misspelled or suspicious-looking domains (e.g. ap9le.com).
• Excessive symbols, numbers, or dashes in the URL.
• Missing contact details or only a generic email address.
• Recently registered domains or mismatched WHOIS details.

Report scams and find more advice at scamwatch.gov.au.

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Disclaimer: The information provided on this page is issued by BTC Markets Pty Ltd (BTC Markets, we, us, our). The information is general only and is not intended to constitute an opinion or recommendation with respect to its contents. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any reference to past performance is intended to be for general illustrative purposes only. The information cannot be relied upon for any purposes and is not intended to be a substitute for professional advice.

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