Crypto market cap pushes toward US$4T

TLDR

• Bitcoin steadies above US$115K as liquidation clusters shape near-term risks
• Softer US jobs data and cooling PPI reinforce US Fed cut expectations
• Ethereum holds US$4.6K with steady ETF inflows and institutional demand
• Altcoin rotation lifts Dogecoin (+22%), Avalanche (+19%) and Solana (+16%)
• BTC dominance slips to 57.8% as flows shift selectively into majors

Introduction

The crypto market closed the week on firmer footing, with Bitcoin holding just above US$115K and Ethereum steady at US$4.6K Macro data and ETF flows steered sentiment, as softer US jobs figures and easing producer inflation reinforced expectations of a September rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. ETF inflows highlighted continued institutional engagement, while a higher US CPI reading revived stagflation concerns. The weakening labour market appears to be tipping the balance toward monetary easing, a shift that typically favours liquidity-sensitive assets like Bitcoin. Traders now face a balance between resilience at support and clustered liquidations that could drive near-term volatility.

Weekly trading stats as of Monday, September 15th at 10:00 AM AEST, based on data from TradingView in USD.

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Bitcoin steadies above US$115K as liquidation clusters shape near-term risks

Bitcoin held just over US$115K, consolidating after a volatile fortnight shaped by macro data and ETF flows. On the 4-hour chart, BTC traded between US$113K–116.5K, and the RSI sat at 55–62, which reflected steady but unspectacular momentum.

The 50-day moving average at US$114.5K acted as first-line support, while the 200-day at US$102.5K provided a firm base. Sellers capped short-term rallies at US$116.5K, and institutional players triggered a late-week short squeeze at this level.

Liquidation maps highlighted clusters below US$114K and above US$117K, a setup that signalled the risk of either a downside flush or an upside squeeze. Trading volumes eased compared with early August, which suggested that the market is consolidating rather than breaking out. The broader uptrend remains intact as long as BTC holds above US$113K–114K.

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Softer US jobs data and cooling PPI reinforce Fed cut expectations

After Bitcoin’s week of steady consolidation, attention shifted to the macro backdrop that continues to shape near-term sentiment. In the United States, the BLS payroll revision last Tuesday removed 911,000 jobs from prior counts, the steepest adjustment in 25 years, while August added just 22,000 jobs. Unemployment rose to 4.3%, its highest since 2021. Inflation also softened, with PPI cooling to 2.6% year on year. Despite CPI printing above forecast at 2.9% versus 2.7% expected, markets still leaned toward a September Federal Reserve cut. Bond yields steadied near 4.1%, and traders broadly priced in at least one rate reduction.

In the Eurozone, inflation edged up to 2.1%, although core pressures cooled, leaving the ECB cautious. China’s CPI fell 0.4%, highlighting deflation risks, while Japan saw modest gains in wages and spending, fuelling speculation of eventual BoJ policy adjustment. Locally, Australian data reflected subdued retail conditions, with households remaining cautious.

Institutional appetite appeared to be re-engaging with the markets, with ETF inflows and treasury allocations showing how liquidity-sensitive assets like Bitcoin are finding support from both macro and market factors.

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Ethereum holds US$4.6K with steady ETF inflows and institutional demand

While macro uncertainty shaped risk appetite, Ethereum maintained firm support and ended the week at US$4.6K. Consistent ETF inflows and progress on decentralised identity initiatives reinforced institutional demand, cementing ETH’s role as the leading alternative to Bitcoin. Price action remained constructive, with steady support above US$4.4K and resilience against broader market volatility.

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Altcoin rotation lifts Dogecoin (+22%), Avalanche (+19%) and Solana (+16%)

Strength in Ethereum set the tone for wider rotation, with selective flows lifting several altcoins to weekly highs. Total crypto market capitalisation briefly touched US$4.1T before easing to US$4.0T, up from early-September lows near US$3.75T. The move was supported by late-week ETF inflows as investors sought “buy the dip” opportunities.

Dogecoin gained 22% and Avalanche rose 19%, leading the majors higher. Solana added 16%, supported by speculation around future ETF approvals, meme coin momentum, and growing stablecoin activity. By contrast, Cardano fell 4.3% and XRP slipped 2.9%, underscoring the uneven nature of flows.

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BTC dominance slips to 57.8% as flows shift selectively into majors

The broad move into altcoins also weighed on Bitcoin dominance, which slipped to 57.8%. Capital flowed selectively into assets with clear catalysts, while Bitcoin continued to anchor overall market direction. For investors, this trend highlights a rotational environment where funds chase opportunities unevenly rather than lifting the entire sector together.

What to watch this week

After another week of rotation and selective flows, all eyes turn to the US Federal Reserve’s 17 September meeting, with markets leaning toward a 0.25% cut. Any deviation could spark volatility across bonds, equities, and crypto. In Australia, employment data is due, providing further insight into household strength and RBA policy expectations.

On the crypto side, ETF flows remain the key barometer of institutional sentiment, with traders watching whether Ethereum sustains recent inflows or if Bitcoin reclaims dominance. Technical traders should also note liquidation clusters around US$114K and US$117K, as stop-hunting on either side could drive short-term swings.

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Closing thoughts

Crypto markets are navigating a mix of softer macro signals, selective ETF inflows, and uneven altcoin performance. The backdrop points to consolidation rather than breakout, with Bitcoin anchoring sentiment as capital rotates into majors with clear catalysts. While short-term volatility remains possible, the longer-term structure shows resilience, underpinned by institutional engagement and liquidity-sensitive demand.

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