Crypto market rebounds after sell-off

TLDR

• Liquidations cleared excess leverage, setting the stage for a potential rebound
• Bitcoin held key support at US$98.9K and is now eyeing US$110K resistance
• Ethereum bounced off US$3,057, with signs of stabilisation above US$3,500 
• ETF flows dipped, but whales withdrew US$120M BTC from exchanges, a bullish accumulation signal 
• Altcoins showed resilience, with SOL attracting US$294M in ETF inflows despite price pressure
• A bipartisan breakthrough moves the U.S. closer to ending its historic government shutdown

Introduction

The crypto market saw a sharp spike in volatility last week, driven by macro uncertainty, regulatory noise, and a liquidation cascade that wiped out over US$2 billion in leveraged positions. Bitcoin and Ethereum both posted weekly losses, but signs of institutional accumulation and on-chain strength suggest the sell-off may be nearing exhaustion.

Weekly trading stats as of Monday, November 10th at 11:00 AM AEDT, based on data from TradingView in USD.

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Price action and market structure

Bitcoin (BTC) opened the week at US$110,540, dropped to a low of US$98,944, and closed at US$104,722, marking a 5.26% decline. The sharp downside wick to US$98,944 on November 4 coincided with a 150% surge in volume, driven by a liquidation cascade and macro-driven risk-off sentiment. BTC briefly broke below the US$100,000 support level, which aligns with the 50-week SMA, before rebounding. Resistance at US$110,000 capped upside moves throughout the week. Liquidation clusters were concentrated around US$98,500 to US$101,300 for long positions, and funding rates flipped negative on November 4, from +0.01% to -0.02%, signalling short dominance before stabilising near neutral. Momentum indicators leaned bearish mid-week but showed early signs of reversal by Friday, with divergences suggesting selling pressure may be waning.

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Ethereum (ETH) opened at US$3,906, hit a low of US$3,057, and closed at US$3,583, down 8.27% for the week. ETH gapped down from US$3,500 on November 5, with spot volume reaching US$47.5 billion on November 8. The asset tested support at US$3,000 but failed to hold above US$3,500, with resistance at US$3,900 (20-week SMA) still intact. Liquidation clusters were concentrated around US$3,200, and ETH saw heavier liquidations than BTC, reflecting weaker sentiment. Technical indicators showed bearish momentum, though no major crossovers occurred. Like BTC, ETH is in oversold territory, with on-chain and volume signals hinting at potential exhaustion in selling pressure.

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Institutional flows and ETF activity

ETF flows reversed mid-week and ended negative, reflecting caution around US inflation data and government shutdown risks. BTC spot ETFs saw net outflows of US$1.22 billion, led by IBIT (US$581 million) and FBTC (US$438 million), with a partial recovery of US$240 million on November 6. ETH spot ETFs recorded US$508 million in net outflows, with US$74 million pulled on November 6 alone. BlackRock’s ETHA posted minor inflows but couldn’t offset broader selling.

Whale wallets were active, with US$120 million in BTC withdrawn from exchanges in just six hours on November 5. Net exchange flows turned negative, suggesting reduced sell pressure and increased self-custody. OG BTC whales were unusually active, adding to the bullish accumulation narrative.

Altcoin and on-chain highlights

Altcoins underperformed majors, with DeFi exploits dominating headlines. AI and memecoins saw niche rotation gains, but momentum was short-lived. Solana (SOL) dropped 21% to US$145, yet SOL ETFs attracted US$294 million in inflows over seven straight sessions, suggesting institutions are chasing staking yields and throughput over price stability.

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Ripple (XRP) surged to US$2.53 after closing a US$500 million funding round, tripling its valuation to US$40 billion. Ethereum (ETH) struggled, with US$655 million in liquidations and investor scepticism ahead of the Fusaka upgrade on December 3.

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On-chain data showed signs of capitulation and accumulation. BTC exchange reserves fell to 2.1 million, down 1.5% week-on-week, while ETH reserves dropped to 18.5 million, down 2%. Stablecoin supply surpassed US$300 billion for the first time, up 20% quarter-on-quarter, with USDT dominance rising to 68%. On-chain transaction volume hit US$2.82 trillion in October, up 45% month-on-month, and continued strong into November.

Macro and regulatory developments

Global macro data continues to dampen expectations for rate cuts, fuelling risk aversion across markets. The US Senate is now voting to break a Democratic filibuster and advance government funding legislation, following a bipartisan deal between centrist Democrats, GOP leaders, and the White House. In exchange, a future vote will be held on extending enhanced Affordable Care subsidies. With the shutdown still ongoing, no new government data will be released next week, including key economic indicators. The October US CPI, scheduled for release on November 13, is expected at 2.6% year-on-year. If inflation remains sticky, it could delay the Fed’s anticipated rate cuts, currently projected as two 25 basis point moves in 2025.

Meanwhile, the RBA held rates steady but revised its inflation forecast upward to 3.2%, pushing its return-to-target timeline into the second half of 2026. The central bank outlined three possible scenarios for Australia’s economic trajectory, with one warning of prolonged sluggish growth and a persistent battle with inflation. According to the RBA, lifting economic capacity is essential, without it, Australia risks being stuck in a cycle of anaemic growth and structural stagnation.

These macro headwinds have weighed on crypto markets, contributing to the recent pullback in BTC and ETH. Transaction volumes dropped 20% week-on-week, as traders reassess risk exposure in light of tightening conditions and delayed policy support.

Regulatory headlines included the EU’s proposal to expand ESMA’s oversight under MiCA, aiming for centralised dispute resolution by 2026. No major actions from the SEC or ASIC, though unconfirmed rumours of a China stablecoin ban resurfaced. 

Geopolitical tensions, particularly around the US-China trade reset and ongoing US shutdown risks, pushed the Fear and Greed Index to 22, deep in “Extreme Fear” territory.

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Closing thoughts: Setup suggests breakout or breakdown ahead

Short-term bias remains bearish heading into CPI data, but oversold indicators and whale accumulation could trigger a relief rally. Watch for BTC to retest support at US$103,000 and ETH to reclaim and hold above US$3,500. Funding rates and ETF flows will be key signals. Total crypto market cap closed at US$3.49 trillion, down 5.26% week-on-week, but market structure remains intact and smart money is moving.

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