Crypto markets under pressure

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Introduction

Crypto markets are navigating one of the toughest weeks of 2025. Bitcoin has fallen sharply from its October highs, dragging sentiment across the board. Institutional flows are reversing, macro uncertainty is rising, and altcoins are showing mixed signals.

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State of crypto

• Bitcoin trades near US$92K after 30% correction
• Outflows hit Bitcoin ETFs; BlackRock leads US$523.15M
• Ethereum ETFs shed US$1.42B, ETH below US$3K
• Solana ETFs attract US$421M despite price weakness
• Fed rate cut odds fall to 30%, inflation remains sticky
• XRP ETF launches with US$277M inflows, as price drops

Institutional flows shift as Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs face heavy outflows

Institutional sentiment has shifted dramatically. Bitcoin ETFs saw heavy outflows this month, including a record US$523M single-day withdrawal from BlackRock’s IBIT. Ethereum ETFs posted US$1.42B in outflows, while Solana bucked the trend with US$421M in inflows over 16 consecutive sessions. Meanwhile, the first XRPETF launched with US$277M in inflows, but price action remains weak. Macro headwinds are intensifying as Fed rate cut odds collapse from 90% to 30%, leaving risk assets exposed.

Bitcoin drops 30% from October highs as fear grips markets

Bitcoin has retraced 30% from its October peak of US$126K and now trades near US$92K. This move was triggered by US$568M in liquidations over 24 hours and pushed the Fear & Greed Index to 15, signalling extreme fear. On the upside, whales are quietly accumulating, adding 2.2% more BTC, while retail investors panic sold US$610M to exchanges. This divergence often marks the early stages of long-term accumulation, but near-term volatility remains high.

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US Fed rate cut odds collapse as inflation concerns unsettle global markets

The macro backdrop is turning hostile. US Fed rate cut odds for December have plunged from 90% to 30% after a prolonged government shutdown delayed key jobs data. Powell’s latest comments underscore that inflation remains sticky, making a cut “not guaranteed.” This uncertainty is draining liquidity from risk assets, including crypto, and amplifying volatility.

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Ethereum struggles below US$3K while Solana inflows defy bearish sentiment

Ethereum is under pressure, sliding below US$3K as ETFs recorded US$1.42B in monthly outflows. On-chain metrics, however, show MVRV at -13%, historically an opportunity zone. Solana tells a different story: despite price weakness near US$142, ETFs logged US$421M in inflows over 16 straight sessions. This divergence highlights shifting investor narratives toward high-throughput chains.

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Check SOL

XRP ETF launches as Bitcoin-backed municipal bonds gain regulatory approval

XRP’s first ETF attracted US$277M in inflows and US$58M in day-one volume, yet price fell 11% to US$2.00, leaving 42% of supply underwater. Meanwhile, New Hampshire approved a US$100M Bitcoin-backed municipal bond with 160% collateralisation. If replicated, this model could open the US$140T global debt market to Bitcoin, a structural shift worth watching.

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Crypto Fear & Greed Index

Source: Fear & Greed Index

BTC Markets in the news

The Australian: Why Australian financial advisers still shun bitcoin despite its multi-trillion dollar boom

BTC Markets head of finance Charlie Sherry says sceptics who still call crypto a fad should look at its progression.

“We’ve gone from a white paper in 2008 to a multi-trillion-dollar asset class that’s now integrated into the global financial system,” Sherry says.

“Bitcoin is held by sovereign nations, traded on Wall Street via ETFs and used as collateral in lending markets. That is quite the journey for a financial fad.”

AFR: Retail investors join whales to wipe 11 months of bitcoin gains

“[That] signalled a clear risk-off shift from big money,” said Rachael Lucas, an analyst at BTC Markets. “That pressure coincided with bitcoin breaking below $US95,000 for the first time in six months and forming a death cross – a bearish technical pattern that historically signals regime change.”

The Albany Advertiser: BTC price: Perfect storm sends cryptocurrency Bitcoin to seven-month low

Other cryptocurrencies have also tumbled over the past week, including Ethereum, Solana and XRP. “Bitcoin tends to move the whole market and the other coins move in lockstep with it,” said Rachel Lucas, a strategist at BTC Markets.

CoinTelegraph: Stay calm: Bitcoin whales are selling, but it’s no ‘sudden exodus’

Charlie Sherry, the head of finance at Australian crypto exchange BTC Markets, said whales selling in isolation isn’t usually significant, but this time, there is a noticeable lack of meaningful support on the buy side to absorb that selling.

France 24: Why is bitcoin plunging?

The value of bitcoin has fallen sharply since reaching record heights last month, briefly falling below US$90,000 on Tuesday compared with above US$126,000 at the start of October.

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The week ahead: Economic events

Thursday, November 20th

• United States Fed Funds Interest Rate, Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Existing Home Sales

Friday, November 21st

• Japan Inflation Rate, Balance of Trade
• United Kingdom Retail Sales MoM, Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI
• Germany Manufacturing PMI

Monday, November 24th

• Germany Ifo Business Climate Index

Tuesday, November 25th

• United States Producer Price Inflation MoM, Retail Sales

Wednesday, November 26th

• United States Durable Goods Orders, GDP Growth Rate, Core PCE Price Index MoM, Personal Income, Personal Spending

Source: Trading Economics

Market reflections

• United States: Jobless benefit rolls reached their highest level since August
• Europe: ECB warned that banks face “unprecedentedly high” risks of shocks
• China: Factory output and retail sales rose at their slowest pace in over a year
• Japan: Economy posted its first contraction in six quarters as the BoJ faced policy pressure
• Australia: Wage growth steadied in Q3, supported by public-sector gains

Economic signals across major markets turned this week as new data highlighted uneven momentum in global activity. In the United States, jobless benefit rolls reached their highest level since August, pointing to softer labour conditions. Investors reassessed expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next steps as signs of cooling demand appeared across several indicators.

In Europe, the European Central Bank issued a warning that banks face “unprecedentedly high” risks from potential shocks. Policymakers reinforced a cautious stance as the region continued to grapple with weak growth, fragile sentiment, and limited improvement in inflation dynamics.

Across Asia, outcomes varied. In China, factory output and retail sales increased at their slowest pace in more than a year. The data signalled persistent strain on domestic demand and raised concerns about the durability of recent policy support. In Japan, GDP contracted for the first time in six quarters. The decline placed further pressure on the Bank of Japan as it evaluated whether its current policy stance remained appropriate amid slower growth.

In Australia, wage growth steadied in the third quarter, supported mainly by public-sector adjustments. The figures aligned with expectations of a gradual moderation in labour-market pressures, easing near-term speculation about additional tightening from the Reserve Bank.

Overall, the week’s releases underscored uneven recovery trends across major economies. Central banks continued to favour stability while navigating an environment shaped by slower growth, persistent inflation risks, and cautious market sentiment.

Closing thoughts

Expect continued volatility as markets digest macro uncertainty and ETF flow dynamics. Bitcoin’s US$83K - US$84K support zone is critical; a break could expose US$69K - US$72K. For Ethereum, watch the US$3K level and ETF flows for signs of stabilisation. Solana’s inflows suggest resilience, but price must reclaim US$150 to confirm strength. Macro catalysts, jobs data and Fed commentary, will set the tone for risk assets into December.

Online safety: How to avoid unexpected money offers

Australians continue to receive messages claiming they are entitled to refunds, grants, prize winnings, or even inheritances. These offers may look official and often impersonate government agencies, banks, or well-known companies to appear trustworthy.

You may be asked to pay “processing fees” or “taxes” upfront, or to share banking or identity information to release the funds. These tactics are designed to create urgency or excitement, so you act before confirming whether the offer is genuine.

What to watch out for

• Messages stating you are owed money, compensation, or an inheritance.
• Requests to pay fees or taxes upfront to unlock funds.
• Emails, letters, or texts that look official but ask for identity or banking details.
• Social media messages about prizes that may not have come from the person they appear to be sent by.

How to stay safe

• Pause and verify before responding. Genuine refunds or prizes do not require upfront payment.
• Avoid paying any fees to access winnings or inheritance.
• Do not share your bank account, crypto wallet, or ID details with unverified contacts.
• Confirm claims through official websites or direct contact channels, not through links in a message.

If you’ve shared information or made a payment, secure your accounts immediately and update your passwords.

Protect yourself and others. Learn more at scamwatch.gov.au.

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