Crypto weathers global shocks, but rally stalls

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Crypto markets entered August on shakier ground as institutional sentiment cooled, and global tensions flared. Bitcoin held above key support, but altcoins pulled back following strong summer rallies.

Soft labour data and rising graduate unemployment added to macro uncertainty, reinforcing market expectations for rate cuts later this year. Meanwhile, Trump’s new wave of tariffs rattled equity markets and added to policy instability.

Overseas, the UK and India signed a new trade deal, cutting tariffs on cars and key goods. Meanwhile, other negotiations remain unresolved. Locally, the Finder Wallet court ruling limited ASIC’s reach on staking products, while U.S. regulators clarified that liquid staking tokens used in ETFs aren’t considered securities when providers perform only administrative functions.

Institutional outflows and subdued trading suggest the market is catching its breath. Traders are now looking ahead to fresh macro signals before making the next move.

State of Crypto

• Bitcoin holds support as ETF outflows and macro headwinds test sentiment
• Ethereum retraces from double top after July rally and institutional pullback
• Solana pauses near resistance amid mixed signals and fading momentum
• XRP cools off after overbought rally, with price action stuck near US$3.00
• Capital rotation slows as Bitcoin dominance holds near 61.7%

Bitcoin holds support as ETF outflows and macro headwinds test sentiment

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to consolidate after last month’s peak above US$123K. On the 4-hour chart, BTC is struggling to reclaim the 50-EMA after rejecting the 200-EMA around US$115.7K. RSI sits near neutral, and volume remains light, pointing to tentative trading. On the daily, BTC is still in a longer-term uptrend and has formed a higher low around US$112K. For now, price action looks range-bound between US$115K and US$120K, with traders awaiting new momentum signals.

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Ethereum retraces from double top after July rally and institutional pullback

Ethereum (ETH) has eased off its July highs, with price action forming a double top around US$3,930 before retracing to US$3,400. It’s now hovering near the 50-EMA, with RSI showing waning momentum. On the daily chart, ETH remains structurally strong, but resistance between US$3,800 and US$3,900 is capping upside. The recent US$392M net outflow from spot ETFs suggests reduced institutional activity following a big run-up last month.

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Solana pauses near resistance amid mixed signals and fading momentum

Solana (SOL) has cooled after hitting US$206 in July. It’s now meeting resistance near US$170 on the 4-hour chart, where a bear cross recently formed. The 200-MA is acting as a ceiling, while RSI stays flat. On the daily, SOL is showing mixed signals, with a bull cross on the 50/200 MAs bearish pressure building from shorter EMAs. The charts point to a pause in positioning ahead of incoming macro data.

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XRP cools off after overbought rally, with price action stuck near US$3.00

XRP continues to trade sideways after a volatile July. The 4-hour chart shows choppy movement around US$3.00, with compressed MAs and RSI at 51 pointing to indecision. A bear cross between the 50 and 200 MAs may be forming. On the daily, the uptrend remains intact but faces stiff resistance at US$3.20, which has capped recent attempts to break higher.

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Capital rotation slows as Bitcoin dominance holds near 61.7%

Bitcoin dominance has eased from recent highs but remains steady around 61.7%. Rotations into majors like ETH and SOL appear to be slowing, in line with falling ETF flows. While still elevated historically, BTC dominance holding steady suggests a more defensive tone, with traders pausing after July’s aggressive positioning.

ETF inflows reverse as caution returns to BTC and ETH

Bitcoin spot ETFs saw US$529M in net outflows, following an even larger US$643M the week prior. Ethereum ETFs reversed direction too, with US$392M in outflows, a sharp drop from the previous week’s inflows. Net assets now sit at US$146.2B for BTC and US$20B for ETH.

The pullback in flows mirrors recent price action, suggesting some investors may be locking in profits or positioning defensively amid rising macro uncertainty.

Crypto majors are cooling off after strong July rallies. Most are now consolidating near key moving averages, suggesting a healthy pause, but with weak volume, there’s room for volatility if support levels give way. CPI figures out Monday could be the next key driver of market sentiment.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index

Source: Fear & Greed Index

BTC Markets in the news

Forbes: Cardano price prediction: will slow and steady win the race?

“Cardano takes a different path, focused on long-term stability. It’s built to be secure, energy-efficient, and self-sustaining,” says Charlie Sherry, Head of Finance at BTC Markets.

ADA has surged 126% in the past year, yet adoption lags Ethereum and Solana. Analysts call it a speculative, long-term play as the network builds out its DeFi and smart contract ecosystem.

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The week ahead: economic events

Thursday, August 7th

• Australia Balance of Trade
• China Balance of Trade, Exports YoY, Imports YoY
• Germany Balance of Trade
• United Kingdom Interest Rate
• Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index

Friday, August 8th

• Canada Unemployment Rate

Saturday, August 9th 

• China Inflation Rate

Tuesday, August 12th 

• Australia Business Confidence, Interest Rate,
• United Kingdom Unemployment Rate
• Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index
• United States Core Inflation Rate MoM, Core Inflation Rate, Inflation Rate MoM, Inflation Rate

Source: Trading Economics

Market reflections

• U.S. tariff escalation stokes trade and inflation risks
• Weak U.S. jobs data lifts rate-cut expectations
• Risk assets bounce but conviction remains low
• Crypto steadies as investors rotate defensively

U.S. tariff escalation stokes trade and inflation risks

A sweeping round of U.S. tariffs - ranging from 10% to 41% across more than 60 countries - took effect this week, raising global trade tensions. Japan, Mexico, and Canada are among the countries impacted. The move drove volatility across equities and commodities, with traders wary of inflationary spillovers and potential retaliation.

Weak U.S. jobs data lifts rate-cut expectations

Markets reacted quickly to July’s labour market miss, with just 73K jobs added and 258K cut from prior months. Two-year Treasury yields fell to a three-month low of 3.66% as traders ramped up policy easing bets.

Risk assets bounce but conviction remains low

While global stocks recovered some early-week losses, the rebound remains shaky. The MSCI All-Country Index snapped a six-day losing streak, but ongoing policy risks - from trade to central bank moves - continue to weigh on investor confidence.

Crypto steadies as investors rotate defensively

Crypto markets held firm despite risk-off signals in traditional assets. A softer U.S. dollar helped support Bitcoin, but ETF outflows and reduced altcoin flows suggest a more cautious positioning following July’s strong rally.

Closing thoughts: All eyes on CPI as consolidation takes hold

After July’s strong run, crypto is now in a holding pattern. ETF outflows and weaker macro data point to more cautious positioning, but key levels are holding - particularly for Bitcoin. The broader structure remains intact, even as altcoin momentum cools. Next week’s U.S. CPI will be the key macro test. With volatility still elevated and capital rotating defensively, clarity on inflation and policy could set the tone for the rest of August.

Scam alert

Product and service scams: Double-check before you pay

Online scammers often pose as buyers or sellers to trick people into sending money or goods. They set up fake websites or impersonate trusted businesses, using stolen logos, fake reviews, and even '.com.au' domains to appear legitimate.

These scams can happen through marketplace platforms, social media, or email. Some involve fake invoices or last-minute changes to payment details. Once the payment is made, the scammer vanishes.

Warning signs it could be a scam:

• Unusually low prices or exaggerated product claims
• Missing ABN, privacy policy, or terms and conditions on the website
• Buyers offering to overpay or purchase without seeing the item
• Requests for payment via gift cards, money orders, or multiple accounts
• Invoices for products or services you didn’t order
• Mismatched account names during payment

How to protect yourself:

• Verify the business using an ABN or official company registration.
• Avoid new or unverified sellers offering steep discounts on social media.
• Use secure payment methods like credit cards or trusted platforms such as PayPal.
• Type website URLs manually and cross-check with official sources.
• Confirm invoice and payment details directly with the supplier.
• Check that the recipient's name matches the intended payee when using PayID or bank transfers.

How to spot a fake website:

• Misspelled or suspicious-looking domains (e.g. “ap9le.com”).
• Excessive symbols, numbers, or dashes in the URL.
• Missing contact details or only a generic email address.
• Recently registered websites or mismatched registration information (check using WHOIS or domain tools).

Think you’ve been scammed?

Stop all communication, don’t send more money, and contact your bank immediately. You can also report it to scamwatch.gov.au.

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