Crypto weekly gains erased as Asia open sparks sell-off

TLDR

• Bitcoin falls back below US$88K despite higher rate-cut odds
• Institutional flows and ETF activity show signs of life
• Ethereum rotation builds momentum
• Solana respects range boundaries
• XRP supply squeeze tightens liquidity

Introduction

After a week of steady gains, the crypto market flipped on its head as Asia’s open triggered a wave of selling. November saw US$3.79B in ETF outflows and billions in leveraged liquidations. Bitcoin plunged US$4,000 in two hours, wiping out US$400M in leveraged longs in just 60 minutes. Bulls now look to US$80K as a potential shakeout floor if macro conditions ease.

Weekly trading stats as of Monday, December 1st at 11:00 AM AEDT, based on data from TradingView in USD.

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Bitcoin falls back below US$88K despite higher rate-cut odds

Bitcoin opened the week at US$86,830, climbed to US$93,092, and closed at US$90,360, up 4.07% before reversing sharply. Price held above US$84K, aligned with the 100-week SMA, keeping the broader trend intact, but resistance near US$94K capped gains.

The first Bitcoin ETF inflows since October hinted at stabilising institutional demand after a US$4.35B exodus, following November’s 17% drop, the worst since mid-2022. The recent sell-off reflects positioning rather than fundamentals, despite December rate-cut odds rising to 85%, sticky inflation, tariff risks, billions in ETF outflows, and leveraged liquidations triggered a deleveraging spiral.

If the Fed cuts rates on Dec 10-11, BTC could see a rally 10-15%. A hawkish tilt could spark “sell the news” and retest recent lows. Cuts alone won’t erase macro headwinds, so ETF flows remain the key confirmation signal.

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Institutional flows and ETF activity show signs of life

BTC saw its first weekly ETF inflows since October, a modest but meaningful shift after prior outflows. ETH ETFs pulled in US$313M as price held above US$3,000, underscoring a preference for smart contract exposure.

On exchange, BTC and ETH balances were broadly stable through the close, while XRP balances contracted. Stablecoin supply expanded, including a reported US$1B USDC mint in 48 hours, which supported liquidity conditions and cleaner execution.

Ethereum rotation builds momentum

Ethereum posted a strong week, opening at US$2,802.16, hitting a high of US$3,099, and closing at US$2,991.26 for a 6.75% gain. Key levels remain clear, resistance at US$3,100 and support at US$2,800.

Price action respected resistance into the close, while buyers stepped in on dips toward US$2,900, helping build a base above US$3,000. Institutional flows reinforced the move, with US$313M in ETF inflows after a US$1.74B outflow streak, signalling rotation back into ETH.

Improved demand and anticipation of the upcoming Fusaka upgrade add to the bullish tone, setting up a potential test of US$3,100 if momentum persists.

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Solana respects range boundaries

Solana gained 2.22% this week, opening at US$130.58 and closing at US$133.48 after trading between US$128.44 and US$144.75. Strong support sits at US$132 and resistance at US$144, with price action respecting both levels, hinting at a coiling setup. A breakout above US$144 could open room toward the high US$150s, while a loss of US$132 risks a slide into the US$120s.

Fundamentally, Solana remains a key contender for Web3 adoption thanks to its speed, low fees, and scalability. It has overcome early technical challenges and ranks second only to Ethereum in developer activity and ecosystem funding, though success is not guaranteed.

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XRP supply squeeze tightens liquidity

XRP opened at US$2.0491, touched US$2.2868, dipped to US$2.0238, and closed at US$2.1550, posting a 5.17% gain. Exchange supply fell 29% to 15.86B tokens, alongside record weekly ETF inflows and whale accumulation. Reduced exchange balances often precede volatility when paired with fresh demand, so price action could become lively if liquidity tightens further.

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Macro and regulatory headlines keep traders alert

Stablecoin risk remains in view, with scrutiny on Tether’s US$23B exposure to BTC and gold following an S&P stability rating downgrade, even against US$10B plus annual profits.

TradFi integration advances, with Nasdaq seeking SEC approval for tokenised stock trading and a U.S. Bank piloting a Stellar-based stablecoin targeting 3 to 5 second settlement. These are incremental steps, but they matter for plumbing and adoption.

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Outlook for the week ahead focuses on key levels

The outlook for the week ahead centres on key levels for major assets. For BTC, US$87K remains the critical support to defend, while US$94K is the upside level to test. A breakout will require sustained buying pressure and strong follow-through volume, not just wicks into resistance.

For ETH, US$3,100 serves as the near-term pivot; acceptance above this level opens room toward US$3,250-US$3,300, while failure suggests a retest of US$2,800.

Intraday bias is likely to track ETF flows, stablecoin issuance, and overall market breadth. On the macro front, traders will keep an eye on U.S. data releases, including ISM surveys and upcoming CPI and PPI prints.

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