Ethereum breaks on-chain activity record as Bitcoin pushes past US$122K

TLDR

• Bitcoin breaks out of tight trading range as CPI decision looms
• Rate-cut bets climb as tariffs threaten growth and inflation outlook
• Institutional inflows surge as Ethereum activity hits record highs
• Chainlink soars and USDe tops US$10B TVL on policy shifts
• Economic releases may sway central bank moves and market sentiment

Bitcoin traded between US$112,000 and US$119,000 for most of last week, holding July’s gains despite subdued summer volumes, before breaking out to test the US$122,000 zone today. Softer U.S. jobs data and rising unemployment have fuelled speculation that the Federal Reserve could cut rates as early as September. The formal rollout of new U.S. tariffs on dozens of countries added to trade tensions and stoked concerns over global growth.

Ethereum set new records for on-chain activity, drawing continued institutional demand alongside consistent ETF inflows. The week closed with markets weighing macroeconomic caution against crypto-specific momentum, heading into a key U.S. inflation read this week.

The weekly trading stats as of Monday, August 11th at 10:00 AM AEST, based on data from TradingView in USD.

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Bitcoin compresses within tight trading range as CPI decision looms

Bitcoin’s medium-term uptrend remains intact on the daily chart, with price holding well above the 50-day moving average (~US$113.7K) and 200-day moving average (~US$99.7K). Consolidation above US$116K signals a pause after July’s rally. Key support is near US$112K, with a deeper level at US$105.5K. On the 4-hour chart, BTC has formed higher lows and recovered from last week’s dip. The 12/26 EMA cross remains bullish after last week’s crossover. RSI sits near 66, showing firm momentum but approaching short-term overbought territory. A rejection near the US$119K–US$120K resistance zone could lead to a retest of lower supports before the next push higher.

The BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap shows a cluster of stop orders just above US$120K, creating potential for a short squeeze if price breaks higher. Below current levels, lighter liquidation interest sits near US$116K and US$114K. A breakthrough these levels could accelerate a long flush. This week’s data releases may determine which side of the range is tested first. The focus on inflation and policy shifts comes after a week of economic data that reshaped market expectations.

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Rate-cut bets climb as tariffs threaten growth and inflation outlook

July’s U.S. jobs report confirmed a cooling labour market. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said conditions are softening and that rate cuts may soon be appropriate. She added that more than two cuts could be needed if the slowdown deepens. Markets are now pricing in an 85% chance of a September cut and U.S. two-year Treasury yields have fallen to their lowest in over a month.

President Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on imports and lifted average duties to their highest in a century. Analysts warned the measures could push consumer prices higher and squeeze corporate margins. They also cautioned that the new tariffs may weigh on growth. In Australia, RBA Governor Michele Bullock said the rise in unemployment to 4.3% was not a surprise. Core inflation has slowed to 2.9% and markets still expect a 0.25% rate cut at tomorrow’s (August 12th) meeting. The Australian dollar eased as investors priced in the move.

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While macro data kept broader markets on edge, crypto assets showed renewed momentum led by strong ETF inflows and record network activity on Ethereum.

Institutional inflows surge as Ethereum activity hits record highs

Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded US$246.75M in net inflows last week. Total net assets now stand at US$150.70B, a sharp reversal from the previous week’s US$643M in outflows and a sign of renewed institutional demand after July’s volatility.

Ethereum broke through US$4,000 and reached a peak above US$4,300. Spot ETFs brought in US$326.83M in weekly inflows, the strongest in recent months. Network activity hit a record of 1.74 million daily transactions on Wednesday and surpassed the May 2021 high. July was also the busiest month on record for Ethereum with more than 46 million transactions processed. Analysts say the surge has not yet been fully reflected in price. Many see potential SEC approval for staking features in U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs as the next major catalyst.

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Chainlink soars and USDe tops US$10B TVL on policy shifts

Meanwhile, Chainlink rallied 34% after the launch of the Chainlink Reserve. The initiative will create a strategic on-chain reserve of LINK tokens and has lifted investor confidence. The move brought renewed attention to the project and helped drive a strong recovery in price. USDe, a fast-growing DeFi stablecoin, also surpassed US$10B in total value locked, supported by favourable policy signals that boosted demand across lending and trading protocols.

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Economic releases may sway central bank moves and market sentiment

The coming week is heavy on data and centres on U.S. CPI on August 12th and PPI on August 14th. Investors will watch for signs that inflation remains close to the 2.8% YoY consensus. A higher reading could reduce the chances of a September rate cut. A softer number would likely push yields lower and lift demand for risk assets such as crypto. U.S. jobless claims and consumer confidence data will also be released this week, providing further insight into labour market health and sentiment. U.S. retail sales data is due on August 15th and will provide another gauge of consumer strength. Together, these releases will play an important role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s policy stance.

In Australia, traders look to the RBA meeting on August 12th where a 0.25% cut is widely expected. Markets will study forward guidance for clues on the pace of easing. Chinese retail sales and money supply figures are also due this week and may influence Australian equities and commodity prices.

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Closing thoughts

Markets are closely watching the upcoming U.S. CPI figure due out on 12th August, which may reinforce or challenge the growing rate-cut narrative. Other key releases this week include US jobless claims and consumer confidence data, both of which could sway Fed expectations. The Chinese balance of trade figures are due on Thursday this week, which could help shed some light on the international trading environment sentiment.

Also expect the news to be filled with country reactions to the imposition of tariffs last week. This could see some volatility in markets, especially as the Northern Hemisphere holiday season begins in earnest this week likely leading to lower market volumes.

As of the crypto markets, attention remains on ETF regulatory movement. The SEC's evolving position on Solana ETF applications and broader crypto guidance could create new price catalysts.

Technically, BTC must hold above US$111K to avoid a deeper correction. A move above US$120K could trigger short liquidations and upside volatility. For Ethereum, holding above US$3,500 and breaking above US$3,800 are key markers for continued strength.

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