Macro trends spark fresh crypto gains

The market’s move higher today can largely be tied back to macro liquidity. June saw a sharp increase in M2 money supply, and while that doesn’t always translate into immediate price action, it tends to find its way into risk assets like crypto with a bit of a lag. We’re seeing that flow start to play out now. Bitcoin tested US$110K on the back of that renewed liquidity, while ETH, XRP and SOL have also caught a bid.

What’s needed for a breakout

There’s also a psychological element in play. As we edge closer to the previous all-time high, momentum builds, but to truly break through, we likely need a sustained catalyst. That could come in the form of clearer interest rate direction from the Fed, or further ETF inflows.

Institutional allocations have been the quiet driver of this rally, and they’ll need to continue for a decisive breakout.

Institutions are setting the pace

On that point, the growing institutional presence in crypto is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it brings legitimacy, liquidity, and long-term capital, all of which help underpin the market. But when retail steps back, you risk ending up with a market that’s too top-heavy and potentially more reactive to macro headlines or portfolio rebalancing flows. It doesn’t mean the structure is unstable, but it does shift the dynamics.

Retail plays an important role in price discovery, energy, and decentralisation, and the market tends to perform best when both sides are active.

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