Recession fears fail to shake Bitcoin from US$94k range

Sign up to our weekly newsletter

Stay informed on the latest market updates – subscribe to our weekly newsletter today.

Check prices on the BTC Markets exchange

State of crypto

• Bitcoin holds steady at US$94K as recession fears grow
• US economy contracts and banks warn of rising recession risk
• Bitcoin's 'digital gold' status gains traction amid market volatility
• Governments now hold 2.3% of all Bitcoin, led by the US and China
• UK unveils draft crypto regulations and deepens US collaboration

Bitcoin holds steady at US$94K as recession fears mount

Bitcoin remained relatively stable around the US$94,000 range this week, even as mounting concerns over a potential US recession and ongoing trade tensions weighed on global markets. Despite a brief dip following news that the US economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1, the first decline since 2022, Bitcoin has outperformed traditional assets like gold and tech stocks in April, gaining approximately 12% amid broader market volatility.

Market sentiment was further influenced by US President Trump's optimistic remarks regarding a potential trade deal with India, which could alleviate some tariff pressures. However, concerns persist as other tariffs remain in place, and economic indicators point toward a possible downturn. As a result, investors are closely monitoring Bitcoin's performance, viewing it as a potential safe haven in an increasingly uncertain economic landscape.

Check BTC

Bitcoin's 'digital gold' status gains traction amid market volatility

Investors seem to be increasingly viewing Bitcoin as a digital counterpart to gold, seeking it as a hedge against economic uncertainty. As it trades near US$95k, it has officially turned positive year-to-date and is showing an increasingly strong correlation with gold, now at 0.70, compared to 0.53 with the Nasdaq 100. According to a recent report from CoinDesk, despite the economic drag from Trump’s aggressive tariffs on China, Bitcoin has just posted its best weekly performance since late 2024.

Governments now hold 2.3% of all Bitcoin, led by the US and China

As of April 2025, governments collectively hold over 463,741 BTC, representing approximately 2.3% of Bitcoin's total supply. The US leads with 198,012 BTC, followed closely by China with 194,000 BTC. These holdings stem from various sources, including asset seizures and strategic acquisitions. Notably, President Trump's executive order back in March 2025 established a "Digital Fort Knox," consolidating seized Bitcoin into a strategic reserve. Other countries like the UK, Bhutan, and El Salvador also maintain significant Bitcoin reserves, reflecting a growing trend of governmental involvement in crypto.

Check XRP

UK unveils draft crypto regulations and deepens US collaboration

The UK government has introduced draft legislation to regulate cryptocurrency exchanges, dealers, and agents, aiming to enhance consumer protection and foster innovation in the crypto-asset sector. The proposed rules will require crypto firms operating in the UK to adhere to standards for transparency, consumer protection, and operational resilience, like those in traditional finance. Approximately 12% of UK adults have reportedly engaged with cryptocurrencies, a significant increase from 4% in 2021. The legislation is expected to be finalised by the end of 2025. Additionally, the UK plans to exempt overseas stablecoin issuers from its upcoming cryptocurrency regulations, part of a broader effort to enhance tech cooperation with the US and establish Britain as a fintech hub.

Check ETH

Crypto Fear & Greed Index

Source: Fear & Greed Index

BTC Markets in the news

CoinMarketCap: Bitcoin ETFs experience US$936 million surge in inflows amid safe haven trends

Analysts indicate that the interest in Bitcoin is driven by macroeconomic factors, including persistent inflation and a weakening US dollar.

Rachael Lucas, a crypto analyst at BTC Markets, noted that these ETF inflows signify a structural shift in which institutional capital is increasingly returning to crypto. She highlighted favourable supply dynamics and Bitcoin’s growing acceptance as a strategic asset class.

Read the full article here.

Announcements

Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA): More assets have been listed.

We've expanded our list of supported assets for Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA), which makes it even easier for you to build your crypto portfolio over time. Whether you're just starting out or looking to automate your investments, DCA helps reduce the impact of market volatility by spreading out your buys.

Read our guide on how to DCA with BTC Markets.

Start stacking smarter today!

OTC Desk

Experience seamless trading: Unlock personalised, secure, and efficient OTC crypto transactions.

When it comes to large-scale crypto transactions, trading over the counter (OTC) with us offers a streamlined, secure, and personalised experience that other exchanges simply can't match. Our OTC desk minimises slippage and ensures deep liquidity, so you can execute sizable trades without the worry.

With our expert traders by your side, we tailor each trade to meet your specific goals. We prioritise speed and compliance, meaning you can lock in optimal prices with the comfort of full regulatory assurance.

Book a call with your OTC expert today.

The week ahead: economic events

Thursday, May 1st 

• United States Core PCE Price Index MoM, Personal Income MoM & Personal Spending MoM
• Australia Balance of Trade
• Japan Interest Rate & Consumer Confidence

Friday, May 2nd 

• United States ISM Manufacturing PMI, Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate
• Euro Area Inflation Rate

Tuesday, May 6th

• United States ISM Services PMI
• Canada Balance of Trade

Wednesday, May 7th 

• Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index

Source: Trading economics

Market reflections

• Australia: RBA rate cut expected as inflation slows but cost pressures persist
• United States: US economy shows signs of strain due to tariff pressures
• China: China's manufacturing sector contracts amid escalating US tariffs
• Japan: Japan unveils emergency economic package to counter US tariff impact
• Canada: Canada faces economic slowdown, rate cut bets rise

Australia: RBA rate cut expected as inflation slows but cost pressures persist

Australia's economy is showing signs of easing inflationary pressures, with core inflation falling to 2.9% in Q1 2025, the lowest in three years and within the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target range of 2–3% for the first time since late 2021. This deceleration, particularly in services inflation, has bolstered expectations for a 25-basis point rate cut at the RBA's May 20 meeting. However, headline inflation rose by 0.9% in Q1, slightly above forecasts, largely due to a 16.3% spike in electricity prices following the expiration of some state-level rebates.

The potential rate cut is seen as a precautionary measure amid global economic uncertainties, including US tariff policies. Financial markets have priced in the anticipated cut, with analysts suggesting it could provide relief to mortgage holders and support consumer spending. Treasurer Jim Chalmers highlighted the inflation data as a validation of the government's economic management, noting that the figures support market expectations for further monetary easing.

Despite the positive inflation news, challenges remain. Rising costs in essential services such as rent, healthcare, childcare, and education continue to strain household budgets. Additionally, the labor market shows signs of softening, with a slight uptick in the unemployment rate and slower wage growth. As the May 3 federal election approaches, economic management remains a central issue, with both major parties presenting contrasting visions to address the nation's economic challenges.

United States: US economy shows signs of strain due to tariff pressures

The US economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2025 - the first decline in three years - largely due to a surge in imports as companies rushed to stockpile goods ahead of sweeping Trump-era tariffs. This drove the trade gap to record levels and shaved nearly five percentage points off GDP. According to the IMF, the ongoing trade war has sharply deteriorated both US and global economic outlooks, prompting a downgrade of the US growth forecast to 1.8% for the year. While consumer spending and business investment remained steady, concerns over stagflation are rising as inflation lingers and trade policy uncertainty clouds future growth.

China: China's manufacturing sector contracts amid escalating US tariffs

China's factory activity contracted sharply in April, with the official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropping to 49.0 - the lowest in nearly two years - as escalating US tariffs weighed heavily on export orders and industrial output. In response to these external pressures, President Xi Jinping emphasized the need for China to adapt its economic structure, calling for the development of new productive forces and the coordination of development and security to navigate the challenging global environment. Despite setting a 2025 growth target of around 5%, analysts have expressed concerns about meeting this goal under current global economic pressures.

Japan: Japan unveils emergency economic package to counter US tariff impact

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced an emergency economic package on April 24, 2025, aimed at mitigating the adverse effects of broad US tariffs on Japanese industries and households. The relief measures include enhanced support for corporate financing, a subsidy to reduce gasoline prices by 10 yen (US$0.07) per litre, and partial compensation for electricity bills for a three-month period starting in July. Ishiba emphasized the potential for significant economic disruption, particularly in key sectors such as automobiles and steel. The government plans to finance the package using a combination of reserve funds and pre-allocated gasoline subsidy resources, minimizing the impact on the current fiscal year's state budget, which runs through March 2026.

Canada: Canada faces economic slowdown, rate cut bets rise

Canada's economy contracted by 0.2% in February 2025, marking its first monthly decline since November 2024, primarily due to downturns in mining, oil and gas, and construction sectors, exacerbated by severe winter weather. While a modest 0.1% GDP rebound is anticipated for March, the first quarter is projected to grow at an annualized rate of 1.5%. This reflects the economy's vulnerability to external pressures, notably US tariffs on key exports like steel and automotive parts. These challenges have led financial markets to increase the probability of a Bank of Canada rate cut in June to just over 50%, as policymakers weigh the need to support economic momentum amid persistent trade uncertainties.

Scam awareness

Email scams

Scam emails look like the real thing, but watch out for links and attachments designed to steal your money or information.

Scammers send 'urgent' emails pretending to be from the government, law enforcement and businesses.

Learn more at scamwatch.gov.au

Stay up to date on the latest news in the crypto space.

Sign up for free and join over 362,000 Australian traders who receive the BTC Markets Weekly Crypto Wrap.

Subscribe to our status page for live system updates or follow us on X.

Feedback

If you have any feedback on our newsletter or want to request specific content, please submit a support ticket and we will respond shortly.

Disclaimer: The information provided on this page is issued by BTC Markets Pty Ltd (BTC Markets, we, us, our). The information is general only and is not intended to constitute an opinion or recommendation with respect to its contents. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any reference to past performance is intended to be for general illustrative purposes only. The information cannot be relied upon for any purposes and is not intended to be a substitute for professional advice.

The information does not purport to be complete, accurate or contain all of the information that a person may require to make a decision. It may also contain forward looking statements, which are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors. We recommend you obtain professional advice before making any decision with respect to the matters discussed in this document. To the maximum extent permitted by law, BTC Markets will have no liability for any loss or liability of any kind: (i) arising in respect of the information contained (or not contained) on this page; or (ii) arising from a person relying on any information or statement contained on this page. The information provided is only intended for recipients in Australia. This information cannot be reproduced without our prior written permission.