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Weekly Crypto Wrap: 13th June 2024

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Rachael Lucas
Weekly Crypto Wrap: 13th June 2024

TLDR

  • Ondo (ONDO) is coming to BTC Markets on June 18th.
  • We’re celebrating 11 years in crypto with a $5,000 Bitcoin giveaway!
  • Bitcoin eyes US$70,000 resistance zone amid market volatility.
  • Analyst predicts spot Ethereum ETFs could capture up to 20% of Bitcoin ETF flows.
  • NAB chief economist Alan Oster predicts RBA will hold rates steady.
  • US core consumer prices slow in May as Fed holds rates steady.
  • China's annual inflation rate remained stable in May, as the trade surplus widens.

BTC Markets announcements

BTC Markets is celebrating 11 years in crypto with a $5,000 Bitcoin giveaway!

$5000 Bitcoin Giveaway

This month, BTC Markets has reached an incredible milestone - 11 years in the crypto market! To celebrate we're giving away AU$5,000 worth of Bitcoin to 10 lucky winners!

It’s easy to enter:

  • Follow us on X (Twitter).
  • Retweet the giveaway post.
  • Comment ‘#BTCMarkets is celebrating 11 years in #crypto.’

You will automatically go in the running to win! T&Cs apply. Enter now!

This journey has been nothing short of extraordinary, and it’s all thanks to you, our loyal clients. Your unwavering trust and support have been the cornerstone of our success.

From our humble beginnings as a startup, we’ve grown into a powerhouse in the Australian cryptocurrency landscape. We’re honoured to have you as a vital part of our journey and are excited to continue being a part of yours.

New listing: Ondo (ONDO) will be live and available to trade on June 18th.

We are excited to announce that Ondo (ONDO) will be alive and available to trade on BTC Markets next Tuesday, June 18th.

Ondo Finance, an innovative financial infrastructure platform, harnesses blockchain technology to improve market efficiency, transparency, and accessibility.

For further details on Ondo Finance, please visit our blog. Follow us on X/Twitter, LinkedIn, or Facebook for the latest updates on new asset listings.

Pendle (PENDLE) is now live and available to trade on BTC Markets.

Pendle offers unique features that make it an attractive asset for traders and investors. By leveraging its protocol, users can access and manage future yield, unlocking new possibilities in the DeFi space.

Read more about Pendle on our blog and follow us on X/Twitter, LinkedIn, or Facebook for the latest updates on new asset listings.

Start trading PENDLE/AUD today!

BTC Markets x Ticker News ‘Crypto Corner’ with Joni Pirovich from BADASL.

BTC Markets has partnered with Ticker News to produce a ground-breaking news series called ‘Crypto Corner’. Each episode, we talk to thought leaders in the cryptocurrency and blockchain industry, to discuss the latest innovations and their impact on you and the industry.

In this episode, Caroline Bowler catches up with Joni Pirovich, the founder of BADASL. They explore how the history of exchange token offerings in Australia and the ATO’s early involvement have paved the way for the creation of the world’s first comprehensive tax disclosure framework.

Watch on YouTube or Ticker News.

Explore our OTC Desk for global liquidity, tighter spreads, and personalised service.

Over the past year, our OTC desk has been instrumental in assisting a diverse range of clients as they realign their SMSF holdings, navigate the complexities of EOFY, and free up additional capital during the tax season.

We've worked in close collaboration with businesses actively engaged in crypto payments, ensuring they optimise their frequent conversions to AUD. Whether you're an experienced trader seeking a discreet execution of substantial positions or a business in need of a seamless solution to manage your crypto portfolio, our OTC team is fully equipped to assist you today.

By choosing our services, you gain access to global liquidity, allowing you to take advantage of tighter spreads and benefit from T+0 settlements. Our approach is built on providing personalised service, ensuring that your specific needs are met with precision and care.

Our expert team of traders is at your disposal, ready to help you navigate the world of crypto trading with confidence.

Book a call today.

BTC Markets in the news

Cointelegraph: Bitcoin is no ‘silver bullet’ for money’s ethical problems.

Speaking to Cointelegraph, Caroline Bowler, CEO of Australian crypto exchange BTC Markets, said currencies are inherently “neutral technologies” that are neither “good nor bad.”

Read the full article here.

State of crypto

  • Bitcoin eyes US$70,000 resistance zone amid market volatility.
  • Blockchain Australia rebrands to ‘Digital Economy Council of Australia’ (DECA).
  • 19-trading day Bitcoin ETF inflow streak ends with US$64.9 million outflow.
  • Analyst predicts spot Ethereum ETFs could capture up to 20% of Bitcoin ETF flows.

Bitcoin eyes US$70,000 resistance zone amid market volatility.

Bitcoin attempted to retest the US$70,000 range this morning on the back of positive Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the decision to hold interest rates steady in the US. However, it failed to break through and is currently trading in the US$69,700 zone.

Over the past week, Bitcoin has experienced a decline of over 2.11%, down from a high of US$71,977 in Friday's trading session, retracing to a low of US$66,051.

This movement can be seen as a healthy correction, following a period of oscillation between the all-time high (ATH) of US$73,777 on March 14, 2024, and the current levels.

BTC average retail demand hits 5-month low; analyst questions if rally is eminent.

The average monthly change in Bitcoin retail demand has dropped to its lowest point in five months, reaching levels last seen in January. This decline, reported by CryptoQuant author Axel Adler, has fallen to negative 17% over the last 30 days.

Interestingly, a similar drop to -18% in January preceded a 75% surge in Bitcoin's price over the following two months, when it rose from US$40,000 to US$70,000 after the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US.

Adler notes that retail investors, those with up to $10,000 in transfer volume, react quickly to market changes. Last month, a 31% drop in demand over 17 days to May 24 also signalled a shift in retail interest, possibly due to increased attention on GameStop and Ether. According to 10x Research head researcher Markus Thielen, for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs, the CPI must drop to 3.3%.

Blockchain Australia rebrands to ‘Digital Economy Council of Australia’ (DECA).

Australia's top crypto industry body, Blockchain Australia, has rebranded itself as the Digital Economy Council of Australia (DECA) to attract a broader range of fintech firms and banks. This shift aims to address the growing digital economy, including areas like digital ID, AI, Web3, and cybersecurity. The rebranding coincides with the resignation of CEO Simon Callaghan and the appointment of former operating chief Amy-Rose Goodey as managing director.

DECA plans to introduce eight membership categories, including crypto and Web3, tokenisation, government, charities, payments, and banking. This move comes amid increasing friction between Australia's major banks and crypto firms, with many banks blocking payments to crypto exchanges due to fraud concerns. Goodey emphasises the need for regulation to provide market confidence and ensure banks are comfortable with crypto transactions.

Bitcoin falls as ETF inflows fail to boost crypto prices.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced declines early Tuesday despite strong inflows into Bitcoin-linked exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Analyst Matteo Greco from Fineqia International noted that BTC Spot ETFs recorded net inflows every trading day last week, marking the fourth consecutive week of positive inflows.

However, these inflows haven't significantly boosted Bitcoin's price. Traders are buying spot Bitcoin ETFs while selling futures linked to the cryptocurrency to profit from the futures market premium, according to BitMEX Research. This selling pressure in the futures market keeps Bitcoin's price in balance.

Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency, dropped 4% to $3,528 but remains up 21% over the past month. The Securities and Exchange Commission recently approved rule changes to allow spot Ether ETFs to trade, but it may take weeks or months before these products launch.

19-trading day Bitcoin ETF inflow streak ends with US$64.9 million outflow.

On June 10, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced a US$64.9 million outflow, marking the first outflow since May 10 and ending a 19-day streak of consecutive inflows, according to Farside Investors. Four ETF issuers were primarily responsible for these outflows.

Grayscale’s GBTC led the outflows with US$39.5 million, bringing its total outflows to US$18 billion. The Invesco Galaxy BTCO ETF saw a US$20.5 million outflow but still holds a positive net inflow of US$300 million. Valkyrie’s BRRR ETF experienced a US$15.8 million outflow, maintaining a net inflow of US$497 million. Fidelity’s FBTC had a smaller outflow of US$3 million, yet it sustains a strong total inflow of US$9.6 billion.

In contrast, two issuers reported positive inflows. BlackRock’s IBIT recorded an inflow of US$6.3 million, while Bitwise’s BITB ETF saw an inflow of YS$7.6 million. Despite the recent outflows, total inflows into Bitcoin ETFs remain significant at US$15.6 billion, highlighting continued investor interest in these financial products.

Spot Bitcoin ETF Total Net Flows

Source: TheBlock.co

Analyst predicts spot Ethereum ETFs could capture up to 20% of Bitcoin ETF flows.

Spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could capture between 10-20% of the investment flows currently directed towards Bitcoin ETFs, according to Jag Kooner, head of derivatives at Bitfinex. Kooner noted that much depends on future clarification regarding whether staking will be allowed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for these Ethereum ETFs.

Kooner provided a historical parallel with the launch of gold ETFs, which attracted significant investments and impacted inflows into existing gold-related financial products. Similarly, the introduction of Ethereum ETFs might prompt fund managers to reallocate resources to balance their exposure to both Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Fund managers typically diversify their ETF portfolios to spread risk and potentially enhance returns. For instance, the launch of the SPDR Gold Trust in 2004 revolutionised gold trading by providing a convenient way for investors to gain exposure without holding the physical metal. The subsequent introduction of silver ETFs, like the iShares Silver Trust in 2006, saw investors adding these positions due to rising industrial demand for silver.

The weekly crypto close on Tradingview

The crypto market experienced an increase in total market cap, yet most major assets closed the week with losses.

While Bitcoin (BTC) climbed 2.79%, other assets experienced varying degrees of losses.

Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), Litecoin (LTC), and Chainlink (LINK) all saw single digit decline.

Overall, the total crypto market capitalisation increased by 1.13% over the week, closing at a valuation of USUS$2.487 trillion.

Weekly crypto close

The weekly trading stats as of Monday, June 10th at 10:00 am AEST, based on data from Tradingview in USD.

Year-to-date in the crypto space from TradingView

The year-to-date performance summary for selected cryptocurrencies is as follows:

  • Bitcoin (BTC) leads the pack with an impressive gain of 60.96%.
  • Ethereum (ETH) follows closely with a 55.83% increase.
  • Solana (SOL) not far behind, holding onto a 52.20% gain.
  • Litecoin (LTC) is sitting on a 7.73% annual increase.
Year to date

Year-to-date performance as of Thursday, June 13th at 10:00 am AEST approximately. Based on data from Tradingview in USD.

Crypto Fear& Greed Index

Fear and greed index

Source: alternative.me

The week ahead: economic events

June 13th: United States Producer Price Inflation MoM.

June 14th: Japan Interest Rate.

June 15th: United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

June 17th: China Industrial Production and Retail Sales YoY.

June 18th: Australia Interest Rate. Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index. U.S. Retail Sales.

June 19th: Japan Balance of Trade. United Kingdom Inflation Rate.

Source: trading economics

Market reflections

Overview

NAB chief economist Alan Oster predicts the RBA will hold rates steady. Australia's new home loans surged in April, exceeding expectations, while investment lending for homes also rose. However, dwelling approvals declined. Australia's trade surplus widened in April, beating forecasts. In the US, core consumer prices slowed in May, marking the lowest increase in seven months, and the Fed held rates steady amidst mixed signals. China's annual inflation rate held steady in May as the trade surplus widened. The ECB lowered key rates by 25bps in June 2024 amid declining inflation. The UK economy stalled in April due to industrial and construction declines, while Germany's trade surplus narrowed. Mixed signals from Canada include rate cuts, trade gains, and rising unemployment.

Australia

  • NAB chief economist Alan Oster predicts RBA will hold rates steady.
  • Australia's new home loans surge in April, exceeding expectations.
  • Investment lending for homes rises in April, as dwelling approvals decline.
  • Australia's trade surplus widens in April, beating forecasts.

NAB chief economist Alan Oster predicts RBA will hold rates steady.

Australia's NAB Business Confidence Index fell in May, marking the lowest level in six months and turning negative for the first time since last November. This decline indicates that the subdued economic activity seen in Q1 has continued into Q2.

Sentiment has worsened across key sectors, including manufacturing, transport, and construction. Business conditions have dipped below average, with notable drops in sales and profitability.

NAB chief economist Alan Oster commented, "The message here is a mixed one for the RBA. We expect the RBA to keep rates on hold for some time yet."

New home loans surge in April, exceeding expectations.

In April, the value of new home loans for owner-occupied homes in Australia surged, significantly surpassing market forecasts. This growth was largely driven by an increase in the construction of dwellings and a remarkable rebound in the purchase of new builds. However, the purchase of existing dwellings slowed.

Investment lending for homes rises in April, as dwelling approvals decline.

Investment lending for homes in Australia increased in April, reflecting ongoing activity in the housing market despite recent fluctuations. This growth underscores continued investor interest in property investment, even as market conditions evolve.

In contrast, the seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwellings approved in Australia decreased in April, reversing a previous increase. This decline was driven by reductions in approvals for both private sector houses and private sector dwellings excluding houses.

Australia's trade surplus widens in April, beating forecasts.

Australia's trade surplus soared in April, surpassing expectations. The surplus widened as exports fell less than imports, with a significant drop in shipments to China. This positive economic indicator is likely to boost investor confidence and influence market trends.

Global

  • US core consumer prices slow in May, lowest increase in seven months.
  • Fed holds rates steady amidst mixed signals from US economy.
  • China's annual inflation rate holds steady in May, as the trade surplus widens.
  • ECB lowers key rates by 25bps in June 2024 amid inflation decline.

US core consumer prices slow in May as Fed holds rates steady.

The US Federal Reserve has maintained its fed funds target range at 5.25%-5.50%, with no rate cuts expected until inflation moves towards the 2% target.

Core consumer prices (CPI) showed moderation, with a rise of 0.2% in May, the slowest increase in seven months. Annual core inflation fell to 3.4%, the lowest in over three years, and the overall annual inflation rate slowed to 3.3%, the lowest in three months.

Reports showed the services sector rebounding in May, with a services PMI of 53.8, the highest in nine months. Additionally, the US economy added 272,000 jobs in May, surpassing expectations. The unemployment rate rose to 4% in May 2024, the highest since January 2022.

These economic updates show a mixed picture for the economy, with robust economic activity and growth vs. persistent challenges in the labour market.

China's annual inflation rate holds steady in May, as the trade surplus widens.

China's economic landscape is nuanced, with steady inflation indicating recovering domestic demand and a widening trade surplus suggesting strong international trade performance. China's annual inflation rate remained at 0.3% in May 2024, holding steady for the second consecutive month but falling short of market forecasts of 0.4%. This marks the fourth straight month of consumer inflation, indicating an ongoing recovery in domestic demand.

Food prices declined for the 11th consecutive month, though the rate of decline was the softest since February. Core consumer prices, excluding food and energy costs, increased year-on-year. On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined by 0.1%, marking the second monthly decline this year and missing the consensus forecast of no change. This follows a 0.1% rise in April.

China's trade surplus widened in May, the largest since February. With exports up 7.6% and imports growing just 1.8%, this development suggests robust international demand for Chinese goods and a moderated domestic consumption of foreign products.

ECB lowers key rates by 25bps in June 2024 amid inflation decline.

In June, the European Central Bank (ECB) reduced its key deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%, in line with market expectations. This marks the first change in nine months after the rate reached a record 4% in September 2023. The ECB also cut the main refinancing operations rate to 4.25% and the marginal lending rate to 4.5%.

Despite the rate cuts, domestic price pressures remain high, prompting the ECB to maintain a restrictive policy stance. Inflation has significantly declined, yet the ECB has revised its inflation projections upwards for 2024 and 2025. Economic growth is expected to improve, with GDP growth forecasted at 0.9% in 2024, 1.4% in 2025, and 1.6% in 2026.

Germany's trade surplus narrows to in April.

Germany's trade surplus narrowed in April as imports outpaced exports. With exports hitting a 14-month high, this data highlights key trends for investors in manufacturing and tech sectors.

UK economy stalls in April due to industrial and construction declines, as unemployment rises.

The United Kingdom's unemployment rate increased in April, up from 4.3% in the previous three-month period and exceeding market forecasts. This is the highest rate since the three months leading to September 2021.

Despite the rise in unemployment, the number of employed individuals increased, primarily due to a rise in part-time employees and full-time self-employed workers. Conversely, the number of full-time employees decreased during the quarter. Additionally, the economic inactivity rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 22.3%.

The economy stalled in April, after a 0.4% rise in March, marking the weakest performance in four months. This stagnation was driven by declines in industrial output and construction, which offset gains in the services sector.

Mixed signals from Canada: rate cuts, trade gains, and rising unemploymen

The Bank of Canada cut its key interest rate to 4.75% in June and signalled the potential for further reductions if inflation continues to decline, reflecting softer GDP growth and a tightening job market. Canada's trade deficit narrowed in April with a 2.6% rise in exports, indicating a healthier economy.

However, the Ivey PMI fell to 52 in May, missing forecasts but still showing growth, despite a slowdown in economic activity due to reduced inventories.

Concurrently, Canada's unemployment rate rose to 6.2%, the highest since October 2021, although net employment increased by 26,700 and hourly wages grew by 5.2%.

Crypto news

Base TVL hits US$8b after outpacing OP mainnet.

The Ethereum layer-2 network Base has recently surpassed US$8 billion in Total Value Locked (TVL), outpacing Optimism’s OP Mainnet. As of June 10, its TVL stands at US$8.05 billion, comprising US$2.14 billion of bridged assets from Ethereum and US$5.92 billion in native assets.

Base, supported by Coinbase, has become the second-largest Ethereum scaler by TVL, trailing Arbitrum One’s US$18.27 billion. It reached the US$1 billion TVL mAugust 2023 and 27, just seven months after its launch in August 2023, and has since seen rapid growth.

Base also leads in transactions per second among Ethereum layer 2 networks, with 30.36 transactions per second over the last month, surpassing Arbitrum One's 23.52.

Base has been the most profitable Ethereum layer 2 network, with record profits of US$16.9 million in March. Despite a drop to US$6.98 million in May, it still leads in profitability.

Trade ETH/AUD on BTC Markets.

TipLink targets crypto newcomers with Google-powered Solana wallet.

TipLink, a crypto wallet startup on the Solana blockchain, is aiming to simplify onboarding for newcomers by introducing the TipLink Wallet Adaptor. This service creates an in-browser wallet linked to a user's Google account, eliminating the need for setting up a less user-friendly Phantom, Solflare or other wallet before receiving any crypto tokens.

CEO Ian Krotinsky believes this approach will appeal to most internet users who lack a crypto wallet or the knowledge to set one up. While this may not sit well with self-custody proponents, TipLink ensures security measures by burying private keys beyond easy reach and leveraging Google's security protocols.

The platform only interacts with vetted dapps to mitigate risks of malicious activity. Additionally, TipLink is developing a "Pro" service to assist developers in distributing cryptos to users via campaigns. Overall, TipLink aims to streamline the user experience for newcomers to the crypto space while maintaining security measures.

Buy SOL/AUD on BTC Markets.

Cardano's Voltaire Era approaches with June hard fork milestone.

The upcoming Chang hard fork in June marks a significant milestone for Cardano as it transitions into the Age of Voltaire, the final phase of Cardano's development roadmap. It signals the readiness of the Cardano blockchain for the hard fork, pending the installation of the new node by 70% of stake pool operators.

Named after Phil Chang, a key figure in Cardano's governance who passed away in 2022, this hard fork introduces community-run governance and on-chain consensus. With this upgrade, ADA holders will be able to vote on proposals, shaping the future of the blockchain.

Charles Hoskinson, the creator of Cardano, views Chang as a pivotal moment, envisioning a decentralised civilisation with millions of participants. Despite ADA's recent price decline and dropping out of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap, the Cardano community remains optimistic about the future, fuelled by the potential of decentralised governance and community involvement.

Trade ADA/AUD on BTC Markets.

Regulation roundup

Ripple expands collaboration with Georgia for economic digitalisation.

Ripple is strengthening its collaboration with Georgia's National Bank to explore opportunities for digitalising the country's economy. Ripple executive James Wallis recently met with officials from the NBG, including acting governor Natia Turnava and Varlam Ebanoidze, head of the bank’s financial and supervisory technology development department, to discuss enhancing cooperation in financial technology and digitalisation.

The meeting, officially announced by the Georgian central bank, included the introduction of Alistair Brown from Ripple's partner EPAM Systems. EPAM specialises in software engineering services and digital product design.

Compliance conversations

AI-powered crypto scams: the next generation of fraud.

As the cryptocurrency landscape evolves, so do the tactics of scammers. Recently, blockchain analytics firm Elliptic reported a concerning trend: the rise of AI-powered crypto scams.

These scams leverage artificial intelligence to create convincing deepfakes, scam tokens, phishing websites, and spread disinformation. While the current risk is relatively small, it is crucial for crypto users to be vigilant and take necessary precautions to protect themselves.

AI-powered scams are becoming increasingly sophisticated, exploiting various aspects of the crypto ecosystem. The most common types of these scams include:

  • Deepfakes: Scammers create and disseminate deepfake videos, audio, or images that appear highly convincing, tricking users into believing false information or fraudulent schemes.
  • AI-generated scam tokens: Capitalising on market hype, scammers build AI-scam tokens designed to deceive investors.
  • Phishing websites: Using AI, scammers create highly realistic phishing websites to steal personal information and crypto assets.
  • Disinformation campaigns: AI is employed to spread false information, creating confusion and manipulating market sentiment.

Tips to stay safe

To protect yourself from AI-powered crypto scams, follow these essential tips:

  • Verify, verify, verify: Always verify the authenticity of websites, tokens, and investment opportunities. Look for official links, logos, and contact information to ensure legitimacy.
  • Be cautious of deepfakes: Be aware that deepfake videos, audio, or images may be used to deceive. Verify the source and authenticity of any suspicious content.
  • Avoid clicking on suspicious links: Do not click on links from unknown sources, especially those that ask for personal information or direct you to send cryptocurrency.
  • Use strong security measures: Employ strong passwords, enable two-factor authentication, and keep your software and firmware up to date to enhance security.
  • Stay informed and educated: Keep yourself updated with the latest developments in cryptocurrency and AI-powered scams. Continuous education on identifying and avoiding scams is crucial.

Experts highlight the difficulty in spotting AI-generated content. However, maintaining vigilance and consistently verifying information are key to staying ahead of scammers.

Crypto users must remain aware of their potential vulnerabilities and take proactive steps to ensure the authenticity of websites, tokens, and investment opportunities. By staying informed and following these safety tips, you can protect yourself from the next generation of AI-powered fraud.

The ASIC provides a checklist of common scams and ways to avoid them. To learn more, visit ASIC’s website.

Discover more on our ‘Compliance conversation’ blog page, where we share the latest updates on safeguarding against scams and protecting your assets. Stay informed and stay protected!

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Disclaimer: The information provided on this page is issued by BTC Markets Pty Ltd (BTC Markets, we, us, our). The information is general only and is not intended to constitute an opinion or recommendation with respect to its contents. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any reference to past performance is intended to be for general illustrative purposes only. The information cannot be relied upon for any purposes and is not intended to be a substitute for professional advice.

The information does not purport to be complete, accurate or contain all of the information that a person may require to make a decision. It may also contain forward looking statements, which are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors. We recommend you obtain professional advice before making any decision with respect to the matters discussed in this document.To the maximum extent permitted by law, BTC Markets will have no liability for any loss or liability of any kind: (i) arising in respect of the information contained (or not contained) on this page; or (ii) arising from a person relying on any information or statement contained on this page. The information provided is only intended for recipients in Australia. This information cannot be reproduced without our prior written permission.

Weekly prices are accurate as of 10:00 AM AEST on 10/06/2024.

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