Weekly Crypto Wrap: 14th March 2024

TLDR

• Bitcoin ETF inflows reach record US$1 billion as leveraged demand skyrockets.
• Bernstein analysts predict Bitcoin to reach US$150,000.
• MicroStrategy purchases another 12,000 Bitcoin.
• NAB business confidence dips, retail hit as soft economic growth persists.
• U.S. experiences inflation surge as robust job market exceeds expectations.
• China's trade surplus grows as consumer prices trend upwards.
• Euro Area holds interest rates amid inflation and growth concerns.

BTC Markets announcements

ICYMI: ‘Crypto Corner’ hosted by BTC Markets CEO, Caroline Bowler on Ticker News.

At the start of the month, we launched 'Crypto Corner', an Australian first collaboration between BTC Markets and Ticker News, where we dive deep into the world of cryptocurrency and blockchain technology.

Hosted by our CEO Caroline Bowler, we invite industry leaders across the blockchain and crypto sectors to discuss recent market shifts, expert analyses, and the impact of macroeconomic variables on price action.

In our first episode, Caroline spoke with Steve Vallas, CEO of Blockchain APAC, delving into industry advancements, regulatory hurdles, and the trajectory of digital assets. From manoeuvring through regulatory landscapes to dispelling misconceptions about crypto.

Tune in to our YouTube channel or Ticker News to watch the first episode.

Blockchain APAC Policy Week is coming to Sydney!

BTC Markets is proud to partner with Blockchain APAC to host one of the largest regulatory discussions in Australia's cryptocurrency and digital assets sector, Blockchain APAC Week. The event takes place in Sydney from Monday, March 18th to Friday, March 22nd.

Blockchain APAC is committed to initiating global and regional regulatory discussions, as Australia's position and growth in the region depends on fostering both market opportunities and strategic regulatory frameworks.

The highlight of Policy Week? The Ripple Australia Policy Summit, taking place on Wednesday, March 20th, from 8:00 am to 2:00 pm in Sydney.

Want more information? Follow Blockchain APAC on X/Twitter or LinkedIn to stay up to date with the latest events and announcements.

AUD card deposits are now available at BTC Markets.

Did you know that you can now deposit AUD directly into your BTC Markets account using your Australian issued Visa or Mastercard credit or debit card?

This new deposit method makes it even easier and faster to fund your account, all without leaving the exchange. Simply log in to your BTC Markets account and enter your card details. Your funds will be available in your account instantly, ready for you to start trading.

Here are some of the benefits of using AUD card deposits:

• Fast and convenient: Deposit funds instantly without having to leave the exchange.
• Flexible: Use your Visa or Mastercard credit or debit card.
• Secure: We use industry-leading security measures to protect your card information.

In addition to card deposits, we also offer a variety of other deposit methods, including:

• Osko (PayID).
• Direct deposit.

We are committed to providing you with a convenient trading experience and adding AUD card deposits will make it even easier for Australians to access digital assets.

To learn more about AUD card deposits, please visit our Help Centre.

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Our expert team of traders is at your disposal, ready to help you navigate the world of crypto trading with confidence. Book a call today.

BTC Markets in the news

Financial Standard: Morue meat on the BONES.

Bowler says that the industry is always looking for something that's going to be proportionate and appropriate (regarding regulations).

“Oftentimes, when we're having conversations around the regulation, there’s a lot of focus on the perceived risks around crypto, which is fine and balanced...But what's missing is other half of that conversation, which is the risk mitigation that comes from something like blockchain technology and its assessment and counterparty risk,” she explains.

Source: Financial Standard (print version).

The Bitcoin Halving countdown

Updated as of 10:30am AEDT 14/03/2024.

Source: coinmarketcap

The Bitcoin Halving.

The upcoming Bitcoin Halving, initially anticipated on 4/20, is now projected for April 15 due to heightened ETF flows and price surges. This shift reflects trader sentiment and underscores the network's finite block space.

Increased transaction volumes have expedited the process, with recent market fluctuations contributing to the accelerated timeline. Despite initial meme-friendly expectations, the Halving's imminent timing signals significant market activity and highlights the cryptocurrency's ongoing evolution.

State of crypto

• Bitcoin ETF inflows reach record US$1 billion as leveraged demand skyrockets.
• Bernstein analysts predict Bitcoin to reach US$150,000.
• Cryptocurrency price predictions, Bitcoin faces potential liquidity crisis.
• London stock exchange considers physically backed crypto ETN’s.
• U.S. SEC further delays decision on BlackRock’s spot Ethereum ETF.
• MicroStrategy purchases another 12,000 Bitcoin.

Bitcoin ETF inflows reach record US$1 billion.

Bitcoin surged above US$73,000, rebounding from Tuesday's decline, driven by a record US$1 billion inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This influx, the highest since ETF trading began in January, signals significant institutional investor activity, driving bullish market sentiment.

Blackrock recorded a notable US$849 million inflow, while Grayscale saw outflows of US$79 million. The robust price movement, reminiscent of institutional trading behaviour, underscores Bitcoin's bullish trend as it pushes further into price discovery mode.

Leveraged Bitcoin ETFs demand skyrockets.

Investor demand for leveraged exposure to Bitcoin is surging as the cryptocurrency reaches new highs. Leveraged futures-based ETFs, like Volatility Shares' 2x Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITX), are experiencing significant inflows, with BITX attracting US$630 million in net monthly inflows. These flows rival those of spot Bitcoin ETFs and are among the highest in the market, surpassed only by BlackRock and Fidelity. The open interest on CME has also broken records, with premiums nearing 20%.

Bernstein analysts predict Bitcoin to reach US$150,000.

Bernstein analysts anticipate Bitcoin to reach US$150,000 by mid-2025, citing the recent rally as a reinforcing factor for their bullish outlook. They expect the cryptocurrency's price to surge after April's Halving event, fuelled by strong momentum. Bitcoin ETF inflows, surpassing US$9.5 billion since January approval, further support their projection. The analysts view Bitcoin miners as the best proxy for the token, emphasising investment opportunities amid correlations with mining stock performance. Despite Bitcoin's recent dip to around US$70,801, they remain confident in its upward trajectory.

Cryptocurrency price predictions.

Market participants are closely watching Bitcoin’s prices action as it surged to a new peak of US$73,650, with projections of US$80,000 amid institutional fear of missing out (FOMO). Ethereum (ETH) aims to recover its all-time high of US$4,868, possibly climbing 20% higher with the Dencun Upgrade completed. Ripple (XRP) shows strength, targeting US$0.8000 this week, potentially climbing 10% as XRP bulls dominate. BTC holders remain bullish, but profit booking may lead to a pullback to US$69,000 support. ETH's strong momentum could push it past US$4,500 before reclaiming its ATH. XRP's parabolic rise may continue to US$0.8000 or even US$1.0000, but a drop below US$0.6421 could signal a bearish reversal.

Bitcoin faces potential liquidity crisis.

According to analysis by Ki Young Ju, founder, and CEO of Crypto Quant, Bitcoin faces a potential "sell-side liquidity crisis" within six months if institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs continue. These ETFs have accumulated nearly US$30 billion, making them the most successful ETF launch in history. If this trend persists, there may not be enough BTC available to meet demand, as evidenced by ETFs accumulating over 30,000 BTC last week alone. With around 3 million BTC held by exchanges and miners, a supply-induced price shock is possible.

London Stock Exchange considers physically backed crypto ETNs.

The London Stock Exchange is poised to consider proposals for physically backed crypto Exchange Traded Notes (ETNs) following guidance from the UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). These ETNs, offering exposure to Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), will be debt securities traded during London trading hours. The FCA has specified that such products will be restricted to professional investors. The move comes after the FCA's ban on crypto derivatives and ETNs for retail consumers in 2021.

FDIC vice chair calls for enhanced U.S. digital asset policy.

FDIC Vice Chair Travis Hill stresses the importance of enhanced U.S. digital asset policy to prevent harm to bank customers and the economy. He highlights the advantages of tokenising bank deposits and real-world assets for real-time transactions but raises concerns about unified ledgers, blockchain interoperability, and ownership rights. Hill urges the establishment of global standards to prevent the U.S. from losing influence in this critical stage of blockchain adoption.

U.S. SEC further delays decision on BlackRock’s spot Ethereum ETF.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has further postponed its decision on BlackRock's spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF), according to a recent regulatory filing. BlackRock submitted its application for the iShares Ethereum Trust in November last year, with plans for listing on Nasdaq if approved. This delay follows a similar postponement in January, following the SEC's approval of several Bitcoin ETFs.

MicroStrategy purchases another 12,000 Bitcoin.

MicroStrategy Inc. recently purchased 12,000 Bitcoin for US$821.7 million, marking its second-largest acquisition since it started accumulating the cryptocurrency nearly four years ago. This addition boosts MicroStrategy's total Bitcoin holdings to approximately 205,000 tokens, valued at over US$14 billion. The purchase took place between February 26 and March 10, as disclosed in a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

Source: TheBlock.co

The weekly crypto close from TradingView*.

The latest weekly crypto close from Trading View on Monday, March 11th, saw mixed results across the board.

Ethereum (ETH) led the pack with 11.20% gain on the week followed closely by Solana (SOL) at 10.95%, Bitcoin (BTC) at 9.38%, whilst Chainlink (LINK) secured a 5.82% increase.

The Ethereum Dencun Upgrade, implemented on March 13, 2024, stands as the most significant update since the transition to proof-of-stake in 2022. Notably, it addresses high gas fees, especially on layer 2 (L2) networks, through innovations like proto-danksharding. This upgrade introduces temporary storage called "data blobs," enhancing data availability on the mainnet and reducing fees for L2 users.

Despite its benefits, immediate reductions in gas fees on the mainnet are not expected. However, the Dencun upgrade signals Ethereum's focus on scalability and serving other blockchains, potentially easing congestion and lowering costs for users in the future.

The total crypto market closed the week in the green, gaining 9.82% at US$2.532 trillion valuation. This uptick underscores a widespread expansion across various segments of the market, indicative of heightened investor confidence and participation.

*The weekly trading stats as of Monday, March 11th at 11:00 am AEDT, based on data from Tradingview in USD.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index

Source: alternative.me

Year-to-date in the crypto space from TradingView*.

The start of 2024 has seen significant gains across the crypto ecosystem, with Ethereum (ETH) showcasing an impressive increase of 74.10%. Following suit, Bitcoin (BTC) recorded an uptick of 71.78%, closely trailed by Solana (SOL), with a 63.81% increase.

Avalanche (AVAX) gained 47.45%, while Chainlink (LINK) followed suit with a gain of 38.57%. Additionally, Litecoin (LTC) broke out to the upside and secured an increase of 32.60%.

*Year-to-date performance as of Thursday, March 14th at 11:00 am AEDT approximately. Based on data from Tradingview in USD.

Crypto news

Unlock 5 key insights of Ethereum's Dencun upgrade.

The Dencun upgrade is set to make storing data on Ethereum cheaper and faster, especially for layer 2 transactions. This upgrade consists of two separate updates Cancun and Deneb, and includes nine Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs). Here are 5 things to know about Dencun:

Lower gas fee era: Dencun will significantly lower the cost of L2 transactions on Ethereum, encouraging nearly all activities to shift to these networks. Some projects may even cover gas fees to attract users.

Major upgrade: Marking Ethereum's largest update since The Merge in 2022, shifting from proof-of-work (POW) algorithm to staking, Dencun advances the network's scalability goals, aiming to support various rollups and millions of transactions per second.

Proto-Danksharding: Introduced by Dencun, this long-anticipated approach alters Ethereum's data storage, using "blobs" for more efficient and cheaper temporary data handling, deviating from traditional data storage methods.

Innovation: Named after researchers Dankrad Feist and Proto Lambda, Proto-Danksharding marks a departure from traditional database sharding, paving the way for easier implementation and further scaling advancements.

Historic setup ceremony: The implementation began with the KZG Ceremony in 2022, the largest "Trusted Setup" ever, crucial for enabling Blob storage and demonstrating community involvement in Ethereum's evolution.

Trade ETH/AUD on BTC Markets.

XRP soars 15%, hits 4-month high.

Ripple's XRP emerged as the top performer among digital assets, marking a notable 15% increase in price over 24 hours to reach US$0.7016, a high not seen since November 2023. This surge aligns with speculative interest around a potential BlackRock XRP ETF application. Daily trading volume also surged by more than 250% to US$7.5 billion. The gain coincides with a broader market rally pushing Bitcoin to past US$73,000.

Ripple's CTO, David Schwartz, framed XRP as a volatile asset aiming for long-term appreciation rather than a quick win "lottery ticket," countering investor expectations for immediate, large returns. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse emphasised the importance of aligning the current bull market with "real-world utility." He attributed the market's positive momentum to the launch of multiple Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. and anticipation around the Bitcoin Halving event.

Trade XRP/AUD on BTC Markets.

Solana’s daily new addresses reach all-time high.

The Solana blockchain has reached a new peak in daily new addresses, with a seven-day moving average exceeding 691,000, signalling robust user engagement beyond speculative interest.

“With Solana already recording more daily transactions than Ethereum, Arbitrum, Optimism, BNB Chain, Tron, and Avalanche combined, its ascent to a top three blockchain by market cap seems inevitable." said Zeta Markets Founder Tristan Frizza.

Frizza notes this authentic engagement and a surge in transaction volumes on decentralised exchanges (DEXs), consistently over US$2 billion since early March, highlighting Solana's expanding ecosystem and potential for reaching new price highs.

Trade SOL/AUD on BTC Markets.

Solend launches Suilend on Sui & ATHEX considers Sui for EBB Tool.

Solend has introduced a new DeFi lending and borrowing protocol named "Suilend," operating on the Sui blockchain. Suilend is developed with the Move programming language, aiming to harness Sui's superior performance and sophisticated tools. As a prominent lending protocol on Solana, Solend has attracted a significant user base with over 170,000 users and manages more than 70 types of assets with a total volume locked (TVL) of US$212 million. The expansion to Sui, whose DeFi protocols’ TVL grows to over US$500 million in just 10 months, represents Solend's effort to leverage Sui's high throughput and quick settlement times, enhancing the efficiency and appeal of DeFi protocols.

The Greek stock exchange, ATHEX, in collaboration with Mysten Labs, is considering utilising the Sui blockchain for its electronic book building (EBB) tool. This innovation aims to enable companies at various stages to list securities as digital certificates on Sui, enhancing security, transparency, and the transferability of these securities. The initiative, still in the evaluation phase, could introduce a blockchain-based layer to ATHEX's current trading system, potentially improving liquidity and fundraising mechanisms for companies.

Trade SUI/AUD on BTC Markets.

The week ahead: economic events

March 14th: United States Producer Price Inflation MoM and Retail Sales.

March 16th: United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

March 18th: China Industrial Production and Retail Sales YoY.

March 19th: Japan Interest Rate, Australia Interest Rate, Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, Canada Inflation Rate, and United States Building Permits.

March 20th: United Kingdom Inflation Rate.

March 21st: United States Fed Funds Interest Rate, Fed Funds Interest Rate and Fed Funds Interest Rate, Japan Balance of Trade.

Source: Economic Calendar

Market reflections

Overview

Australia witnessed a decline in business confidence, affecting retail sectors, while soft economic growth persists, underscoring the importance of consumer confidence. Despite inflation concerns, the U.S. impresses with a robust job market, and China sees its trade surplus expand amidst rising consumer prices. Meanwhile, the Euro Area maintains interest rates amidst inflation and growth worries. On the other hand, the UK experiences a rise in unemployment, and Canada observes fluctuations in its job market.

Australia

• NAB business confidence dips, retail hit.
• Soft economic growth persists.
• Consumer confidence crucial for economy.

Australia's National Australia Bank (NAB) business confidence index dipped in January, falling below the long-run average. The retail sector bore the brunt of this decline, grappling with high borrowing costs and elevated inflation.

Nevertheless, there were improvements in business conditions, marked by increased sales, profitability, and employment growth. Forward orders and capacity utilisation eased slightly. Labor and purchase cost growth remained stable, while there was an acceleration in product and retail price growth.

NAB's chief economist, Alan Oster, remarked on the situation, noting that while progress on inflation has been influenced by global supply improvements, future enhancements may not be consistent.

Household spending is on the decline despite a surge in concert attendance, including Taylor Swift performances. This reduction in spending indicates consumer cutbacks, contributing to a sluggish economic outlook. With rising interest rates and decelerating inflation, the Reserve Bank is unlikely to implement further rate hikes, with expectations tilting towards a potential rate cut in September.

Although certain service sectors show resilience, the retail and construction sectors remain weak due to high interest rates. Nonetheless, housing values continue to trend upwards, showcasing resilience in that market amidst the prevailing interest rate environment.

Sky News Business Editor Ross Greenwood emphasises the importance of consumer confidence in the Australian economy, stating, "The key for Australia, a small cog in the global economy, is to keep our consumers going."

Consumer demand comprises over 50% of the Australian economy, making confidence a critical factor. While the ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence survey indicates short-term improvement, there has been a decline over the longer term. ANZ Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga discussed the survey results on Sky News Australia.

Global

• U.S. experiences inflation surge as robust job market exceeds expectations.
• China's trade surplus grows as consumer prices trend upwards.
• The Euro Area holds interest rates amid inflation and growth concerns.
• The United Kingdom's unemployment rate increased in November.
• Canada sees trades surplus and job market fluctuations.

United States

In February, U.S. consumer prices showed resilience, with a 0.4% month-over-month increase in core prices, slightly lower than January but surpassing forecasts. This led to an annual core inflation rate of 3.8%, reflecting sustained price pressures.

Job growth was robust, with 275,000 jobs added, exceeding expectations. Healthcare, government, and food services were key contributors, while manufacturing saw a slight decline. However, the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, its highest since January 2022, underscoring labour market complexities. Despite stable participation rates, ongoing monitoring is needed for employment trends.

China

China's trade surplus soared, surpassing expectations, propelled by a 7.1% increase in exports and a 3.5% growth in imports. Particularly noteworthy was the trade surplus with the United States, reaching US$47.29 billion. This robust trade performance showcased China's resilience amid global economic uncertainties.

Additionally, in February, China's consumer prices witnessed a significant uptick, rising by 0.7% year-on-year, surpassing market forecasts and reversing a sharp decline observed in January. This marked the first consumer inflation since August 2023, driven by strong spending during the Lunar New Year holiday.

While food prices experienced a minimal decline, non-food inflation sharply accelerated, reflecting underlying price pressures.

Euro Area

The Euro Area deposit interest rate held steady at 4% in March and is projected to remain at this level by the end of the quarter. Long-term forecasts suggest a gradual decrease to around 1.75% by 2025. The European Central Bank maintained high rates to combat inflation amid recession concerns.

United Kingdom

The UK's unemployment rate increased slightly to 3.9% from November 2023 to January 2024, despite a decrease in total unemployed individuals. Long-term unemployment rose, while the number of employed individuals fell, mainly due to part-time worker decline. January 2024 saw a 0.2% economic expansion driven by services sector growth, indicating recovery from recent challenges.

Canada

Canada's economic performance in January and February showed mixed trends. In January, a trade surplus exceeded expectations due to decreases in exports and imports. However, February saw a slight rise in unemployment to 5.8%, though the economy added 42,000 jobs, surpassing forecasts.

Regulation roundup

U.S. President Joe Biden’s 2025 Budget targets stricter crypto tax rules.

The U.S. President Joe Biden's fiscal year 2025 budget proposal features significant measures concerning cryptocurrency, including the implementation of a crypto mining excise tax and the inclusion of digital assets in wash-sale rules. This proposal mirrors initiatives from the previous year that Congress did not adopt.

The administration estimates these measures could yield close to US$10 billion in 2025 and over US$42 billion across the next decade. The budget details include applying wash sale rules to digital assets, mandating reporting requirements for financial institutions and digital asset brokers, establishing rules for reporting foreign crypto accounts, integrating cryptocurrencies into mark-to-market rules, and imposing an excise tax on mining.

Additionally, the budget aims to close various tax loopholes benefiting wealthy individuals and large corporations, enhancing fiscal equity. The proposed changes to wash-sale rules would align the treatment of crypto assets with traditional securities, preventing investors from exploiting tax reductions through immediate repurchase after a loss. The budget anticipates generating significant revenue through these measures, with over US$1 billion expected from wash sale rule changes and US$8 billion from including cryptocurrencies in mark-to-market rules in 2025 alone, contributing to a substantial reduction in the national deficit over ten years.

Monday’s budget proposal provisions including imposing mining excise tax and closing the wash sales trading loophole are similar to those proposed last year, which ultimately weren't taken up by Congress.

Compliance conversations

Aussies losing big to social media scams, especially on Facebook: Who's to blame?

In 2023, Australians reported losses totalling US$477 million to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission's Scamwatch, with phone scams (US$116 million) and social media scams (US$93.5 million) being the top contributors to this significant financial impact.

A new report from Australia's National Anti-Scam Centre reveals a troubling trend. Older Australians experienced a sharp increase in financial losses due to social media scams, particularly on Facebook (owned by Meta). They lost about US$5 million in the months leading up to last Christmas, marking an increase of over 50% from the previous three months.

Assistant Treasurer Stephen Jones sharply criticised Meta, the parent company of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, for not adequately addressing scam activities on its platforms. He described Meta as a significant part of the problem, highlighting the company's failure to enhance its systems to prevent scams, in contrast to tighter controls in other sectors.

This criticism follows Meta's refusal to continue compensation deals with media companies and its resistance to proposed mandatory industry scam codes that would enforce minimum prevention obligations on digital platforms. Despite Meta arguing that evolving scammer tactics make prevention challenging, Jones dismissed this, pointing to Meta's vast resources and technological capabilities as evidence that the company could, indeed, do more to combat scams.

Common scams on Facebook include Marketplace, fake investment, and impersonation scams. Andrew Forrest initiated legal action against Facebook, accusing Meta of violating Australian anti-money laundering laws by not preventing scam ads featuring his image.

In response to inquiries on its anti-scam efforts, Meta, through spokesperson Mia Garlick, highlighted significant investment in combating scams and advocated for a collaborative approach, supporting an "industry-led code."

Social media scams are a serious threat, especially for older Facebook users in Australia. The blame game is on between the government and Meta, with each side offering a different perspective. Staying vigilant and informed is crucial to protecting yourself and your loved ones online.

The ASIC provides a checklist of common scams and ways to avoid them. To learn more, visit ASIC’s website.

Discover more on our ‘Compliance conversation’ blog page, where we share the latest updates on safeguarding against scams and protecting your assets. Stay informed and stay protected!

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Weekly prices are accurate as of 11:00 AM AEST on 14/03/2024.