Weekly Crypto Wrap: 22nd February 2024

TLDR

• Bitcoin's price consolidates amidst a surge in futures interest and inflows into the crypto market.
• ETF trading volume skyrockets by 1400%; unprecedented inflows into crypto products.
• ETH investors told to stay vigilant amidst Bitcoin ETF excitement.
• Axie Infinity (AXS) is now live and available to trade.
• RBA exercises caution amidst uncertain inflation targets.
• U.S. Fed minutes show caution on rate cuts.

BTC Markets announcements

Axie Infinity (AXS) is now live and available to trade.

We are excited to announce that Axie Infinity (AXS) is now officially live and accessible for trading on the BTC Markets platform.

If you want to learn more about the underlying technology and developments surrounding Axie Infinity, visit our blog. Additionally, stay updated on the latest news and insights by following us on X (Twitter).

Start trading AXS/AUD today.

BTC Markets teams up with Blockchain Australia for their Policy Forum.

BTC Markets proudly partnered with Blockchain Australia for their recent Policy Forum held in Sydney. The event, spanning two days, centred on collaborative policy development and effective industry transition management.

Day 1 showcased roundtable discussions covering critical topics such as consumer protection, custody, tax, innovation, and research and development. The outcomes of these discussions will shape industry-led policy recommendations, to be presented at Australian Parliament House on Tuesday, March 19th.

As Day 2 ends, industry experts are sharing insights on lessons learned from operating in regulated jurisdictions abroad. Concurrently, government representatives are discussing key priorities and next steps toward regulation.

Follow Blockchain Australia for all the latest updates.

AUD card deposits are now available.

ICYMI: Recently we announced that you can now deposit AUD directly into your BTC Markets account using your Australian issued Visa or Mastercard credit or debit card.

This new deposit method makes it even easier and faster to fund your account, all without leaving the exchange. Simply log in to your BTC Markets account and enter your card details. Your funds will be available in your account instantly, ready for you to start trading.

Here are some of the benefits of using AUD card deposits:

• Fast and convenient: Deposit funds instantly without having to leave the exchange.
• Flexible: Use your Visa or Mastercard credit or debit card.
• Secure: We use industry-leading security measures to protect your card information.

In addition to card deposits, we also offer a variety of other deposit methods, including:

• Osko (PayID).
• Direct deposit.

We are committed to providing you with a convenient trading experience. We believe that adding AUD card deposits will make it even easier for Australians to access digital assets.

To learn more about AUD card deposits, please visit our Help Centre.

The Bitcoin Halving countdown

Updated as of 12:30pm 22/02/2024.

Source: coinmarketcap

The Bitcoin Halving: What it means and when to expect it.

The Bitcoin Halving, occurring roughly every four years, is set to reduce miner rewards, impacting the cryptocurrency's ecosystem. Miners, responsible for verifying transactions, receive newly created Bitcoins as rewards, with the reward size halving every 210,000 blocks to prevent inflation.

The upcoming halving, anticipated around April 19, will decrease rewards to 3.125 coins. While this event won't directly affect Bitcoin users, miners may face reduced incentives. However, the mining industry's adaptability and evolving technology mitigate potential disruptions.

Speculation abounds regarding the halving's impact on Bitcoin prices, with contrasting views on whether it will propel prices higher or if its effects are already factored into the market. Despite uncertainty, Bitcoin's volatility is reportedly decreasing, signalling potential stabilisation in its price dynamics.

State of crypto

• Bitcoin's price consolidates amidst a surge in futures interest and inflows into the crypto market.
• ETF trading volume skyrockets by 1400%; unprecedented inflows into crypto products.
• Hack VC secures $150M to foster innovation in crypto and AI startups.
• ETH investors told to stay vigilant amidst Bitcoin ETF excitement.
• Franklin Templeton broadens crypto portfolio through investment in Blockhead.

Bitcoin (BTC) sees price volatility amid high futures open interest and increased spot ETF inflows.

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a rally to a new 2024 high of US$52,985 on February 20th, followed by a drop to US$50,625 on TradingView. 

Source: TradingView.

Traders attribute this volatility to consistent inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and anticipation of the upcoming supply halving event.

Futures open interest on Bitcoin reached a 26-month high, indicating heightened trading activity and trader sentiment. In 2023, Bitcoin futures open interest surged by over 30%, aligning with Bitcoin's rally.

Source: Coinglass

Furthermore, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have surpassed US$4.91 billion within six weeks since trading began, reaching US$2.5 billion weekly. Analysts suggest that these inflows, combined with positive price movements, have boosted total assets under management (AuM) to US$67 billion.

Source: TheBlock.co

Additionally, the upcoming Bitcoin Halving event, expected to reduce miner rewards by 50%, is anticipated to further drive investor interest in Bitcoin. Traders are closely monitoring the US$52,000 support zone, with a decisive move above or below this level likely determining Bitcoin's next direction.

ETF trading volume surges 1400% following record inflows into crypto products.

VanEck's Bitcoin ETF, dubbed "HODL," witnessed a remarkable uptick in trading volume, soaring to US$258 million on February 20th, marking a 1400% increase from the previous day. With approximately 32,000 individual trades recorded, analysts are intrigued by this sudden activity, attributing it to various factors. Speculation suggests social media influencers' endorsements and VanEck's fee reduction may have fuelled the surge. Similarly, WisdomTree's Bitcoin Fund also experienced heightened trading volume, reflecting a broader trend in the cryptocurrency ETF market.

Following a week of unprecedented inflows into crypto investment products, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw record-high trading volumes. Bitwise's Bitcoin ETF (BITB) witnessed 6.3 million shares traded, while VanEck's Bitcoin Trust ETF (HODL) and WisdomTree's Bitcoin Fund (BTCW) saw significant spikes, totalling about US$2 billion across all US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Analysts attribute this sustained demand to increased interest from professional investors and the recent rally in Bitcoin's price, indicating potential to exceed Bloomberg Intelligence's year-one net inflow estimate of US$10-15 billion.

Hack VC raises $150M to fuel crypto and AI startup innovation.

Hack VC, a Web3 venture capital firm based in New York, has raised US$150 million to support early-stage startups in the crypto and AI sectors. Primarily, the firm will target investments in decentralised finance (DeFi), real-world asset (RWA) tokenisation, and blockchain infrastructure solutions. They aim to invest in projects that enhance the user-friendliness and capital efficiency of crypto, while also focusing on reducing smart contract and protocol hacks.

Additionally, Hack VC plans to heavily invest in the "Web3 x AI" space, building on projects like Jasper AI and Ritual. Despite market fluctuations, the firm maintains a strong commitment to crypto, having previously raised a $200 million seed fund in 2022. With over 100 investments and several unicorn startups seeded since 2014, Hack VC's total assets under management now stand at approximately $425 million.

Ethereum investors urged to monitor key trends amid Bitcoin ETF buzz.

As the conversation surrounding Bitcoin spot ETFs dominates headlines, it's crucial for Ethereum (ETH) investors to pay attention to key underlying trends. Despite Bitcoin's recent highs and institutional interest, Ethereum remains the preferred blockchain for developers and innovators in the tokenised asset space.

Smart contracts, non-fungible tokens (NFTs), decentralised autonomous organisations (DAOs), and governance tokens predominantly operate on Ethereum, highlighting its role in ecosystem development. As the push for Ethereum spot ETFs gains momentum, investors should consider several factors:

Resolution of staking lawsuits: With numerous lawsuits affecting staking services and approximately US$85 billion of ETH staked, legal resolutions will significantly impact the ETH market. Institutional investors seeking exposure to crypto assets will prioritise the reliability of staking returns, especially amid ongoing uncertainty in traditional financial markets. 

Re-evaluation of ETH classification: The classification of crypto assets remains a contentious issue hindering broader adoption. While Bitcoin's approval for spot ETFs suggests a non-equity classification, Ethereum's success and its role in staking markets raise questions about its classification. The concentration of staked ETH post-Merge could prompt regulatory scrutiny and potentially lead to a re-evaluation of ETH's classification as an equity security. 

As interest in the crypto asset sector grows within traditional finance, investors should closely monitor Ethereum's impact on innovation and growth in the crypto space, regardless of the outcome of future spot ETF approvals.

Franklin Templeton expands crypto portfolio with Blockhead investment.

Franklin Templeton, a global asset management giant, continues its foray into the cryptocurrency space with an undisclosed investment in Blockhead, a Singapore-based crypto news firm. This move follows Franklin Templeton's recent filing for a spot market Ethereum exchange-traded fund in the US.

Blockhead, established in 2022, is renowned for its comprehensive coverage of the blockchain and digital asset industry, particularly in Asia. The investment aims to support Blockhead's new research platform, BRN, tailored for institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals. BRN will provide exclusive market intelligence, data-driven analysis, and insights into cryptocurrencies, emerging industry trends, and macroeconomic influences on the digital asset landscape.

This investment aligns with Franklin Templeton's strategy to build a global ecosystem of digital asset operators and capitalise on the benefits of blockchain technology. Additionally, Franklin Templeton's recent investments in reg-tech startup Transparently.AI and the launch of a China-focused fund in Singapore underscore its commitment to expanding its presence in innovative financial markets.

The weekly crypto close from TradingView.

This week, Ethereum (ETH) emerged as the top performer, surging by an impressive 14.92%, leading the market. Cardano (ADA) closely followed with a gain of 14.39%, while Bitcoin (BTC) and XRP (XRP) closed with gains of 7.95% and 5.89%, respectively.

Ethereum's pivotal role in blockchain innovation is crucial for investors, considering factors like staking lawsuits' resolution, its classification, and impact on innovation. Institutional emphasis on staking reliability and regulatory scrutiny underscores Ethereum's significance in the evolving crypto landscape. Meanwhile, Bitcoin maintains stability around the US$51k mark amid consistent ETF inflow and positive sentiment around its narrative.

Crypto Fear& Greed Index

Source: alternative.me/crypto 

Year-to-date in the crypto space from TradingView.

Ethereum (ETH) leads the yearly performance charts, boasting a nearly 30% gain, followed closely by Chainlink (LINK) at 24.01% and Bitcoin (BTC) with 22.15%. Solana (SOL) maintains a positive trajectory at 2.49%, while other assets have dipped into negative territory.

Year-to-date performance as of Thursday, February 22nd at 11:00 am AEDT approximately. Based on data from Tradingview in USD.

Crypto news

Institutional interest spikes: Ethereum spot ETF prospects & Dencun upgrade.

In a research report by broker Bernstein, Ethereum (ETH) would probably be the only altcoin (cryptocurrency other than Bitcoin) likely to get a spot ETF approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), with a 50% chance of getting the approval in May this year and almost certain that approval would be granted within 12 months.

Big-name traditional finance companies like Franklin Templeton, Blackrock, and Fidelity, which had their Bitcoin ETFs approved by the SEC in January this year, have also submitted Ethereum ETF applications.

"Ethereum with its staking yield dynamics, environmentally friendly design, and institutional utility to build new financial markets, is well positioned for mainstream institutional adoption." say analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra in the report.

Ethereum’s upcoming March upgrade, Dencun, aims to significantly cut the transaction costs by 50%-90% by introducing a dedicated corridor and block space for roll ups, and it will make the Ethereum network more efficient and cost-effective.

Trade ETH on BTC Markets.

Ripple (XRP) attracts global banks: faster, cheaper payments drive partnerships.

Ripple (XRP), a prominent blockchain technology, has been increasingly adopted by various banks and financial institutions worldwide due to its advantages in facilitating faster and more cost-effective cross-border transactions. The XRP Ledger claims to be capable of handling up to 3,400 transactions per second, significantly more scalable than Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).

Aussie bank Airwallex has already started the journey of working with Ripple, and the Commonwealth Bank of Australia also initiated strategic partnerships with Ripple Labs. The number of its banking partners is expected to grow, following its victory against U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) when Judge Analisa Torres declared that XRP is not a security.

Versan Aljarrah, the founder of Black Swan Capitalist, has recently emphasised the potential role of Ripple's XRP in the burgeoning field of gold-backed cryptocurrencies. Amidst discussions on the future of international financial transactions, there's speculation that XRP could become a gold-standard digital asset for global banks and financial institutions.

Trade XRP on BTC Markets.

Sui Blockchain's TVL hits US$593M, outpacing major competitors.

The Sui blockchain has experienced a significant increase in total value locked (TVL), reaching US$593 million, surpassing Cardano, Near, and Aptos. The surge is attributed to the influx of US$310 million from Ethereum over the past month, driven by the cross-chain bridge Wormhole.

Despite facing challenges during its initial launch in May 2023, including a 68% drop in the SUI token's value in its first five months and accusations of token manipulation by the founders in October, Sui's network performance has improved, bolstering investor confidence. On December 22nd, the SUI blockchain processed 13.8 million blocks with a peak transaction rate of 6,000 per second, maintaining low gas prices even during periods of high traffic.

The SUI token has seen a significant increase of more than 55% in the past month, with a market capitalisation exceeding US$2 billion. The growth reflects a broader trend of inflows in the DeFi market since Q4 2023. According to recent market research, the total TVL is US$72.7 billion, marking an 11% increase from last week. Ethereum dominates the market with a 59.7% share, followed by Solana (15.9%) and Tron (12.3%). A notable surge in activity is due to renewed interest from institutional investors and the impact of spot Bitcoin ETF approvals on the market.

Trade SUI on BTC Markets.

The week ahead: economic events

February 22nd: Germany Manufacturing PMI.

February 23rd: Germany Ifo Business Climate Index.

February 27th: Japan Inflation Rate. Germany GfK Consumer Climate

February 28th: United States Durable Goods Orders.

February 29th: United States GDP Growth Rate.

Economic Calendar (tradingeconomics.com)

Market reflections

Overview

The RBA exercises caution amid uncertain inflation targets while economists offer varied perspectives on their policy trajectory. Australia faces economic headwinds and mixed indicators. January sees US building permits and retail sales decline. British economy contracts in Q4 2023, yet retail sales surge in January as Japan's trade deficit shrinks significantly, while Canada's annual inflation rate decreases.

Australia

• RBA exercises caution amidst uncertain inflation targets.
• Economists offer varied perspectives on the RBA's policy trajectory.
• Australia faces economic headwinds and mixed indicators.

RBA's caution amid uncertain inflation targets.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remains cautious about ruling out another rate rise as inflation targets remain uncertain. According to recent minute from the RBA, the board acknowledges the high uncertainty surrounding the economy and the potential consequences of failing to achieve low inflation. As stated in the minutes, "Given this, members agreed that it was appropriate not to rule out a further increase in the cash rate target."

Economists' perspectives on RBA's policy path.

Capital Economics economist Abhijit Surya views the RBA's discussion of further tightening as mere "bluster," attributing it to the central bank's desire to avoid past communication missteps. Surya suggests that incoming data may lead the RBA to start cutting rates earlier than anticipated. He notes, "We think that the incoming data should give the board greater conviction that it has done enough to subdue aggregate demand and tame inflationary pressures."

Citi chief economist Josh Williamson acknowledges the RBA's reluctance to consider rate cuts, given that inflation remains above the target range. Williamson suggests that premature signalling of rate cuts could exacerbate inflationary expectations. He highlights recent US data indicating a pickup in inflation, suggesting that disinflation may not be straightforward.

JP Morgan chief economist Ben Jarman expects the RBA board to discuss rate hikes in upcoming meetings but views further tightening as somewhat unlikely given the central bank's balanced approach to labour market and inflation objectives. He states, "However, the RBA’s balanced approach to its labour market and inflation objectives makes further tightening seem somewhat unlikely."

Economic headwinds and mixed indicators.

The economic outlook in Australia appears to be facing headwinds, as indicated by the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index declining to -0.1% in January 2024, signalling sluggish near-term growth expectations.

The six-month annualised growth rate also dipped in December, suggesting a potential slowdown in economic activity relative to the trend. Despite this, Australia's economy is projected to track a 1.3% annualised growth in the first half of the year, significantly below the trend of around 2.5%. The index's latest reading reflects mixed results across its components, with half showing improvements and the other half deteriorations.

Additionally, while Australia's seasonally adjusted wage price index increased by 4.2% year-on-year in Q4 of 2023, marking the highest reading since Q1 of 2009, quarterly wage growth slowed to 0.9%, matching forecasts and indicating a deceleration from the previous quarter. These economic indicators suggest a nuanced outlook for Australia's economy, with both positive and negative factors influencing its trajectory.

Global

• U.S. Fed minutes show caution on rate cuts.
• January US building permits and retail sales decline.
• British economy contracts in Q4 2023, while retail sales surge.
• Japan's trade deficit shrinks significantly.
• Canada's annual inflation rate sees a decrease.

U.S. Fed minutes show caution on rate cuts.

January's FOMC meeting minutes reveal the Federal Reserve's reluctance to lower interest rates prematurely. With the benchmark rate at 5.50%, policymakers hesitate to reduce it until inflation steadies near 2%. Uncertainty surrounds the duration of a restrictive monetary policy stance, though some express concerns about its prolonged maintenance. The Fed emphasises that future rate adjustments hinge on economic data, evolving outlooks, and risk assessments.

Gabriela Santos of J.P. Morgan Asset Management notes the Fed's vigilance on inflation but highlights comfort regarding labor market improvements and rent stabilisation.

U.S. building permits and retails sales decline in January.

In January, building permits in the United States experienced a decline of 1.5%, falling short of market expectations for an increase. According to Reuters, "Approvals for the volatile multi-segment plunged by 7.9% to a rate of 455 thousand, reaching the lowest level since April 2020."

Despite this setback, a rebound is expected in the coming months, supported by rising temperatures and an anticipated start of interest rate cuts by the Fed. Additionally, permits for future construction of single-family homes increased, indicating potential growth in the housing market.

Retail sales experienced a significant decline of 0.8% month-over-month, marking the largest drop in 10 months, primarily attributed to factors such as the aftermath of the holiday shopping season and adverse weather conditions.

According to EY-Parthenon economist Lydia Boussour, "One-off factors including shifting seasonal adjustment dynamics and the unusually harsh winter weather likely help explain the disappointing performance." Similarly, Nationwide's chief economist Kathy Bostjancic noted that "revised seasonal factors and inclement weather exaggerated the degree of the slowing in spending following the holiday spending spree."

Despite the widespread decline in retail sales, spending at restaurants showed resilience, indicating continued strength in service-related expenditures. However, analysts caution against drawing premature conclusions about the overall economic outlook, citing uncertainties stemming from weather-related disruptions and seasonal adjustment challenges.

British economy contracts in Q4 2023 as retail sales surge in January.

In Q4 2023, the British economy contracted by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, entering a recession due to a widespread decline in output across sectors, notably services, industrial production, and construction. Despite a slight expansion of 0.1% for the full year of 2023, the British economy faced challenges, with a year-on-year contraction of 0.2% in Q4 and a 0.1% contraction in December, pushing the economy into a technical recession.

In January, retail sales volumes surged by 3.4% month-over-month, exceeding market expectations and marking the largest monthly rise since April 2021. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), "This was the largest monthly rise since April 2021 and returned volumes to November 2023 levels." The positive momentum in retail sales was reflected in both monthly and annual figures, with annual retail sales rising by 0.7%, the largest increase since March 2022.

Japan’s trade deficit shrinks.

Japan’s trade deficit shrank in January 2024 from the prior year, with exports surging by 11.9%, buoyed by robust demand from the US and China. Meanwhile, imports declined by 9.6%, marking the tenth consecutive month of decrease, primarily attributed to lower energy prices. Despite this positive trend, Japan recorded a trade deficit in 2023, marking the third consecutive year of shortfall.

Canada's annual inflation rate decreases.

In January 2024, Canada's annual inflation rate decreased to 2.9%, the lowest since June, down from 3.4% in the previous month, and below market expectations of 3.3%. This decline indicates a reversal from December's high reading, suggesting disinflation in the Canadian economy and potentially prompting more accommodation from the Bank of Canada amid growing growth concerns. Consumer prices remained unchanged from the previous month, with a 0.3% decrease from December 2023.

Regulation roundup

Japan's proposed crypto policy reform moves closer to implementation.

Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has unveiled a legislative proposal aimed at fostering economic reform and bolstering the country's position in the global digital assets space. A key aspect of this proposal involves permitting investment limited partnerships to acquire and manage crypto assets, signalling a significant shift in Japan's regulatory approach to cryptocurrencies.

The measure, initially introduced in September 2023, is part of a broader effort to stimulate new business ventures and strategic domestic investments through tax incentives and financial support. The inclusion of crypto assets in the legal framework not only legitimises their use for institutional investment but also demonstrates Japan's commitment to embracing innovation in the digital economy.

Sota Watanabe, founder of Astar Network, views this development as a crucial step towards nurturing the national industry, addressing concerns raised by venture capitalists and startups. As Japan moves towards relaxing regulatory constraints on cryptocurrencies, the proposed reform reflects a collaborative effort between the public and private sectors. While the legislative process continues, the current session provides an opportunity for policymakers to enact meaningful changes that support Japan's economic competitiveness and technological innovation.

Compliance conversations

The Australian: ‘Jack the Insider’ highlights the rise in advanced online scams.

In a recent article from The Australian, Jack the Insider sheds light on the alarming rise of sophisticated online scams, that leaves victims vulnerable to significant financial losses. These scams, employing tactics such as AI replication, document forgeries, and elaborate long cons, pose a grave threat to individuals' financial security.

Despite the evolution of scamming techniques, traditional schemes, including fraudulent texts masquerading as legitimate organisations like Australia Post, continue to persist. Vulnerable individuals are often lured into these traps, facing devastating consequences.

The article recounts harrowing tales of individuals falling victim to elaborate scams, resulting in substantial financial losses. From an elderly woman duped into paying non-existent postage fees to a freelance journalist coerced into surrendering her life savings, the tactics employed by scammers are becoming increasingly sophisticated.

Furthermore, personal anecdotes highlight the susceptibility of individuals to manipulation, even in the face of scepticism and warnings. Despite red flags, victims may find themselves entangled in elaborate schemes, entrusting scammers with sensitive information and financial access.

To protect against these threats, it is crucial to remain vigilant and implement preventive measures. Suggestions include exercising caution with suspicious messages, verifying the authenticity of communications, and seeking assistance from reputable authorities when in doubt.

The article underscores the importance of awareness and caution in navigating the digital landscape fraught with scams. By staying informed and proactive, individuals can safeguard themselves against the detrimental impact of online fraud.

Key takeaways to avoid scammers:

• Remain cautious of unsolicited messages or requests, especially those urging immediate action or offering unrealistic rewards.
• Exercise vigilance when encountering suspicious URLs or emails, particularly those claiming to be from reputable organisations.
• Avoid disclosing personal information or engaging in financial transactions without verifying the legitimacy of the request.
• Educate yourself about common scam tactics and red flags, such as unexpected demands for payment or threats of legal consequences.
• Seek guidance from trusted sources or consult with financial professionals if unsure about the authenticity of communications.
• Implement security measures, such as call blocking or restricting international calls, to mitigate exposure to potential scams.

It is imperative to exercise caution, verify communications, and seek assistance from reputable authorities. By staying informed and proactive, individuals can mitigate the risks of falling prey to online fraud and safeguard their financial security in the digital age.

The ASIC provides a checklist of common scams and ways to avoid them. To learn more, visit ASIC’s website.

Discover more on our ‘Compliance conversation’ blog page, where we share the latest updates on safeguarding against scams and protecting your assets. Stay informed and stay protected!

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Weekly prices are accurate as of 11:00 AM AEST on 22/02/2024.