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Weekly Crypto Wrap: 29th February 2024

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Rachael Lucas
Weekly Crypto Wrap: 29th February 2024

TLDR

  • New asset listing, Hedera (HBAR) is coming to BTC Markets.
  • Bitcoin breaks through ATH on BTC Markets reaching AU$97k.
  • BTC/AUD crypto pairing beats BTC/USD investors to ATH finish line.
  • The prime ‘Nine’ U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs see another high-volume day.
  • Australia’s inflation rate holds steady in January 2024.
  • U.S. economy grows 3.2%, durable goods orders plunge in January.

BTC Markets announcements

New listing: Hedera (HBAR) to join BTC Markets list of supported cryptocurrencies.

Exciting news! Hedera (HBAR) will soon be available on BTC Markets. HBAR, categorised as a Layer 1, represents innovation and groundbreaking solutions in blockchain and distributed ledger technology.

Renowned for its unique consensus mechanism and steadfast focus on scalability, security, and decentralisation, HBAR has captured the attention of enthusiasts and industry experts alike. Read more about the fascinating world of Hedera on our blog, tracing its journey from inception to its prominent position in the blockchain space.

Stay updated on the latest developments regarding this listing by following us on X/Twitter or LinkedIn. Keep an eye out for more exciting updates in the days to come!

BTC Markets teams up with Ticker News to launch ‘Crypto Corner’ hosted by Caroline Bowler.

BTC Markets has forged a strategic partnership with Ticker News to introduce ‘Crypto Corner’, a dedicated news segment focused solely on crypto and blockchain technology.

This groundbreaking initiative aims to offer expert analysis and in-depth interviews with thought leaders and influencers in the cryptocurrency and blockchain technology sector.

Positioned as a world-first endeavour, the program will feature comprehensive discussions on key themes driving thought leadership within the Australian and global crypto space. The inaugural episode airs tonight at 6:30 pm on Ticker News, featuring Steve Vallas, CEO of Blockchain APAC, discussing government regulations in the Australian landscape.

Tune in to our YouTube channel or Ticker News to watch the first episode.

BTC Markets in the news

AFR: Bitcoin price hits record high in Australian dollars.

In Australia, BTC Markets and Independent Reserve are the only primary order book exchanges and the most successful. Smaller competitors use external order books from international market makers.

“Bitcoin is approaching its all-time high in USD, but due to exchange rate fluctuations, Australian investors might have already reached record highs in AUD terms on their BTC holdings,” said Caroline Bowler the chief executive of BTC Markets.

“As it is traded globally, the bitcoin price is usually referenced in US dollars. This means Australian investors are likely to be indirectly exposed to Australian dollar versus US dollar fluctuations as a result, which ultimately affects the Australian dollar value of their bitcoin holdings.”

News.com.au: Insane prediction for Bitcoin price as crypto closes on all-time high.

Crypto traders are rejoicing as Bitcoin makes a massive surge - but one analyst says it’s not even close to where it could peak next year.

Read the full article here.

Theblock.co: Mantle token hits all-time high amid increased interest in Layer 2s.

Layer 2 solutions play a pivotal role in enhancing the scalability and efficiency of the Ethereum network, addressing its inherent limitations in transaction throughput and high gas fees.

"Rachael Lucas, crypto technical analyst at BTC Markets, pointed out Mantle’s correlation with ether, which grew over 30% in the last 30 days to surpass the $3,000 line…it’s important to note that Mantle Network functions as an L2 scalability solution on Ethereum,” Lucas said. “It employs validator nodes to compress transactions into Ethereum-compatible ‘compressed blocks,’ reducing gas fees and enhancing transaction throughput.”

Read the full article here.

OTC Desk: unlocking global liquidity, tighter spreads, and T+0 settlements.

At BTC Markets, our OTC desk is your dedicated partner in achieving a variety of financial objectives. We specialise in helping clients reposition their SMSF holdings, assisting them through the complexities of EOFY, and facilitating the release of additional capital during the tax season. Our commitment to personalised service means that we work closely with businesses engaged in crypto payments, ensuring they optimise the value of their frequent conversions to AUD.

Whether you're a seasoned trader looking for a discreet and highly efficient means to execute substantial positions, or a business seeking a streamlined solution to manage your crypto portfolio, our OTC team is here to empower you. With access to global liquidity, tighter spreads, and T+0 settlements, we offer a comprehensive range of services tailored to meet your unique needs.

Schedule a call with our team of expert traders today.

The Bitcoin Halving countdown

Updated as of 11:11am AEDT 29/02/2024.

CMC Bitcoin halving

Source: coinmarketcap

The Bitcoin Halving: What is it and why does it matter?


Opinion piece

Charlie Sherry, Head of Finance at BTC Markets.

The Bitcoin halving - often mentioned but what is it and why does it matter and will Bitcoin 10x after this year's halving (just a little clickbait)?


So as most people know, (except for Jamie Dimon) the total issuance of Bitcoin is fixed. Today, about 19.64m Bitcoin are in circulation with a max supply of 21m. Bitcoin is issued through the process of mining, miners validate transactions on the Bitcoin network, and are rewarded with Bitcoin (current mining rewards are about 6.25BTC per block). So, since Bitcoin's inception, years of mining has resulted in 19.64m of supply. And every 4 years the rewards for miners are cut in half (the halving). As you can see in the first image, this has a significant reduction in mining rewards over time.

Read Charlie’s full article here.

State of crypto

  • Bitcoin breaks through ATH on BTC Markets reaching AU$97k.
  • BTC/AUD crypto pairing beats BTC/USD to ATH finish line.
  • The prime ‘Nine’ U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs see another high-volume day.
  • Total crypto market cap hits a two-year high, topping US$2.288 trillion.
  • Price prediction for Bitcoin vary amongst analysts.

Bitcoin (BTC) reaches a new all-time high of AU$97,000. on BTC Markets.

Overnight, Bitcoin (BTC) has surged to new heights on BTC Markets, reaching an astounding AU$97,000. This remarkable milestone marks a significant breakthrough for the BTC/AUD pair, with levels not seen since the peak of the bull market on November 10, 2021, when the market reached AU$93,481.16.

Bitcoin/AUD

BTC/AUD crypto pairing beats BTC/USD to ATH finish line.

Bitcoin is approaching its all-time high in USD, but due to exchange rate fluctuations, Australian investors might have already reached record highs in AUD terms on their BTC holdings.

As it is traded globally, the BTC price is usually referenced in USD. This means Australian investors are likely to be indirectly exposed to USD/AUD price fluctuations as a result, which ultimately affects the AUD value of their BTC holdings.

Foreign exchange is notoriously complex and risky. While BTC can be purchased and sold using USD denominated pairings (such as BTC/USD stablecoin pairings), risks remain with respect to the ultimate AUD value of an investor's BTC holdings. Great care and professional advice should be taken when seeking to execute any strategy to manage foreign exchange rate risks.

The prime nine U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experience another high-volume day.

As per Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg, ‘The Nine’ U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed another day of intense trading activity, surpassing US$2 billion in volume. BlackRock’s $IBIT shattered its personal record yet again, reaching an impressive US$1.3 billion in trading volume. To put this into perspective, this figure exceeds the trading volume of most large-cap US stocks.

The surge in volume raises questions about whether this trend represents a new normal or is driven by short-term algorithmic or arbitrage-related activities akin to those seen with $HODL, VanEck's new spot Bitcoin ETF. Adding to the intrigue, $IBIT witnessed over 100,000 individual trades today, a significant increase compared to its typical trading activity of 30-60k trades leading up to Tuesday.

Interestingly, this surge in activity coincides with the long Presidents' Day weekend, prompting speculation that it could be attributed to pent-up demand. However, the continued high volume today challenges this theory, suggesting that $IBIT has entered a new phase of heightened trading activity.

Eric Balchunas X2

Source: X / Twitter

Total crypto market cap hits a two-year high, surpassing US$2T.

The total market capitalisation of the cryptocurrency market represents the combined value of all cryptocurrencies currently in circulation. It is calculated by multiplying the current price of each cryptocurrency by its total circulating supply.

Crypto total market cap

When the total market capitalisation surpasses the US$2 trillion level, as it did on Tuesday, it signifies that the collective value of all cryptocurrencies in existence has reached this significant milestone. This metric is often used as a barometer to gauge the overall health and size of the cryptocurrency market.

Total market capitalisation provides investors and analysts with an indication of the market's size and growth trajectory. A higher total market capitalisation suggests increased investor interest and confidence in cryptocurrencies, while a lower market cap may indicate a decline in market sentiment.

Reaching the US$2 trillion level is particularly important as it signifies a return to highs not seen since January 2022, indicating a resurgence in the cryptocurrency market's value and potential.

Source: TradingView

Price prediction for Bitcoin vary amongst analysts.

As Bitcoin's price surges, investor and analyst discussions around cryptocurrency intensify. Bitcoin has seen significant gains recently, reaching over US$64,000 this week, its highest level since November 2021. Year-to-date, Bitcoin has risen over 45%, with Wednesday’s 9.46% increase contributing to its 176% climb over the past 12 months.

Research firm Compass Point highlights Bitcoin and Ethereum's strong performance, driving robust returns in crypto stocks like Coinbase and Microstrategy. Looking ahead, Compass Point forecasts considerable upside for Bitcoin, projecting it to reach over US$85,000 by the end of 2024, driven by ETF inflows surpassing available supply. They note historical trends indicating significant growth potential, though tempered by elevated interest rates.

Analysts at Bernstein echo the bullish sentiment, noting the widening crypto bull market led by constant ETF inflows. They anticipate sustained momentum for Bitcoin throughout the year, especially with the upcoming Bitcoin Halving in April 2024, which historically triggers price breakouts.

Other analyst present a more bullish outlook, “Our assumption is that the price of bitcoin is going to achieve $125,000 by the end of 2025," Benchmark's Mark Palmer added on Yahoo Finance Live.

Overall, while price predictions vary among analysts, the consensus points towards continued bullishness for Bitcoin, driven by ETF inflows and institutional demand, leading to new highs in 2024.

Understanding BTC Futures open interest and how it impacts price action.

BTC futures open interest refers to the total number of outstanding futures contracts that have not yet been settled or closed. These contracts represent agreements between parties to buy or sell Bitcoin at a predetermined price and time in the future. Open interest is a crucial metric in the futures market as it reflects the level of investor participation and market sentiment.

When BTC futures open interest is high, it indicates significant investor interest and confidence in the market. This typically suggests that traders are actively participating in futures trading, either to hedge existing positions or to speculate on price movements. High open interest can also suggest potential areas of support or resistance as traders may have large positions that they want to defend or liquidate at specific price levels.

Conversely, when BTC futures open interest is low, it may indicate a lack of interest or uncertainty in the market. This could lead to less liquidity and potentially greater price volatility as there are fewer traders actively participating.

The impact of BTC futures open interest on price action is primarily through the mechanism of short liquidations. In a futures market, traders can take both long (buy) and short (sell) positions. When the price of Bitcoin moves against short sellers (i.e., it rises), those who have sold futures contracts (short positions) may be forced to buy back the contracts at higher prices to cover their positions and limit their losses. This process is known as a short squeeze or short liquidation.

When short liquidations occur, it creates upward pressure on the price of Bitcoin as short sellers rush to buy back their positions. This can lead to rapid price increases, especially if there are a significant number of short positions that need to be covered.

Conversely, if the price of Bitcoin falls, long liquidations may occur, where long positions are forced to sell their contracts, putting downward pressure on the price.

The market is current experiencing an ATH in open interest. Subsequently, the last ATH experienced a 53.74% decline over the next 35 days, bottoming out at US$30,000. After trading within a range for 78 days, Bitcoin surged to its ATH of US$69,000, marking an impressive 80% gain over a 90-day period.

Exchange BTC Futures Open Interest USD

Source: Coinglass

Fourth consecutive week of capital inflows into crypto investment products.

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market witnessed gains fuelled by a report from Coinshares indicating a fourth consecutive week of capital inflows into crypto investment products.

In the week ending February 23, digital asset investment products received US$598 million in inflows, with Bitcoin ETFs leading the way. Notably, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust received the lion's share of inflows at US$543.5 million, countering sharp outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust.

Coinshares also observed a buildup of short interest in Bitcoin amidst recent price increases. MicroStrategy Incorporated, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, further supported the cryptocurrency by announcing the purchase of 3,000 tokens for US$155 million.

Bitcoin's impressive rally in 2024 was primarily driven by the U.S. approval of ETFs directly tracking its price, attracting institutional capital. However, retail trading volumes remained subdued reflecting belief amongst industry participants that the bull market has yet to begin.

Although trading volumes remained below previous highs, the surge in crypto prices spilled over into crypto stocks, with Coinbase Global Inc, Marathon Digital Holdings Inc, and MicroStrategy Incorporated surging between 15% and 22% on Monday.

Spot Bitcoin ETF total net flows

Source: TheBlock.co

The weekly crypto close from TradingView.

This week, Ethereum (ETH) once again emerged as the top performer, closing with an 8.03% gain, as the total crypto market cap closed at US$1.94 trillion, marking a 1.33% increase.

Weekly crypto close

Contributing to Ethereum's price surge could be the upcoming Dencun upgrade, set for March 13th, marking a significant milestone in its scalability journey, positioning it to better compete with faster chains like Solana.

This advancement can be likened to adding extra lanes to a busy highway, allowing Ethereum to handle more transactions smoothly, thereby reducing costs and wait times for users.

Whilst Grayscale CEO expresses confidence in a Spot Ethereum ETF, citing past regulatory success with Bitcoin. Additionally, Ethereum ETFs could soon become a reality, with a potential approval deadline set for May 23, according to Standard Chartered.

This aligns with the pattern seen with Bitcoin ETF approvals, which were granted on the final deadline. Despite uncertainty over SEC approval, optimism remains high, with market execs favouring its likelihood.

The weekly trading stats as of Monday, February 26th at 11:00 am AEDT, based on data from Tradingview in USD.

Crypto Fear& Greed Index

Fear & greed index

Source: alternative.me

Year-to-date in the crypto space from TradingView.

Ethereum (ETH) leads the yearly performance charts, boasting a 48.50% gain, followed closely by Bitcoin (BTC) at 46.59% and Chainlink (LINK) with 31.45%. Solana (SOL) maintains a positive trajectory at 16.16%.

Year to date

Year-to-date performance as of Thursday, February 29th at 11:00 am AEDT approximately. Based on data from Tradingview in USD.

Crypto news

Ethereum overtakes Bitcoin as top institutional holding, fuelled by Dencun upgrade.

Ethereum (ETH) has surpassed Bitcoin (BTC) as the largest crypto asset held by institutions, attributed to the anticipation of the Dencun upgrade. The two crypto assets now constitute 80% of institutional investment portfolios.

ETH has outperformed BTC with a 33% rally year-to-date, credited to Ether's deflationary supply after shifting to proof-of-stake, low exchange reserves, and increased staking activities. Institutions are reportedly allocating a larger portion of their portfolios to Ether, moving away from altcoins like meme coins, artificial intelligence (AI), and BRC-20 tokens, despite their strong performance in 2023.

The March Dencun upgrade, aiming to enhance Ethereum’s scalability, is currently being implemented across testnets. Although the upgrade will improve storage efficiency and lower gas fees, it is regarded as a temporary solution.

In the long run, eyes are on multi-chain solutions, i.e. rollups and appchains, as ideal mechanisms for increasing the capacity of Ethereum.

Trade ETH on BTC Markets.

Solana network achieves over US$5 billion in NFT sales.

The total sales volume of Solana network's non-fungible token (NFT) has surpassed US$5 billion, with 2.2 million buyers and 1.6 million sellers involved in nearly 43 million transactions.

Despite a period of stagnation from July to October 2023, with sales not exceeding US$40 million per month, a surge occurred in November, reaching US$82 million—a 192% increase from October.

This growth continued, with US$239 million in sales in January 2024 and US$161 million by February 23, 2024. The total transaction volume on Solana recently exceeded US$951 billion, marking a 30% increase from the previous month.

Solana has a consistent developer base of 2,500 to 3,000 active contributors, trailing only Ethereum which has about 6,000 developers. The number of Solana’s average transactions per second is between 3,000 and 4,000 transactions, far more efficient compared to Ethereum which is around 13 transactions per second.

Trade SOL on BTC Markets.

Sui triumphs as ‘Blockchain Solution of the Year’ at 2024 AIBC Eurasia Awards.

Sui has been honoured as the "Blockchain Solution of the Year" at the 2024 AIBC Eurasia Awards in Dubai, against strong nominees like Near Protocol and 1inch Network, underscoring its rapid ascent in the blockchain industry since its main-net launch in 2023.

This recognition reflects its recent surge, with total value locked surpassing US$600 million and obtaining a top 10 ranking in decentralised finance (DeFi) ecosystems. Notably, over 64% of funds transferred from Ethereum via Wormhole in the last 30 days have landed on Sui.

The significant growth of the network's native token, which saw a 131% increase, is attributed to Sui's exceptional performance and efficiency. Sui stands out due to its high transaction throughput, capable of processing 6,000 transactions per second and producing 13.8 million blocks in a single day. These achievements showcase Sui's scalability and its competitive edge in maintaining lower gas prices, especially when compared to other Layer 1 solutions like Ethereum.

Trade SUI on BTC Markets.

The week ahead: economic events

February 29th: France Inflation Rate. India GDP Annual Growth Rate.

March 1st: Germany Inflation Rate. Canada GDP Growth Annualised and GDP Growth Rate. United States Core PCE Price Index MoM, Personal Income and Personal Spending. China NBS Manufacturing PMI and Caixin Manufacturing PMI. Japan Consumer Confidence. Euro Area Inflation Rate. Italy Full Year GDP Growth, Inflation Rate and Government Budget.

March 2nd: United States ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).

March 6th: United States ISM Services PMI. Australia GDP Growth Rate. Germany Balance of Trade.

March 7th: Canada Interest Rate and PMI. United States Job Openings. Australia Balance of Trade.

Economic Calendar (tradingeconomics.com)

https://tradingeconomics.com/calendar

Market reflections

Overview

In January, Australia's inflation rate remains stable, while the construction sector demonstrates varied performance in Q4 2023. The US economy grows by 3.2% in Q4 2023, contrasting with a sharp decline in durable goods orders in January. Additionally, Japan's inflation rate falls to 2.2%, and Germany's PMI falls as business climate & consumer sentiment improve.

Australia

  • Australia’s inflation rate holds steady in January.
  • The construction sector shows mixed performance in Q4 2023.

Australia’s inflation rate holds steady in January 2024.

In January, Australia's monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged at 3.4% compared to the previous month, in line with market expectations. This stability, the lowest reading since November 2021, was driven by a slowdown in transport and housing prices, while health costs moderated.

However, food prices accelerated, and prices for furnishings, household equipment and services, and clothing rebounded. Excluding volatile items and travel, the CPI indicator saw a slight decrease to 4.1%.

Despite this moderation, inflation remains above the Reserve Bank of Australia's target range of 2-3%.

"Today's CPI release should be broadly reassuring to the RBA and, on balance, reduces the risk it might consider yet another rate increase in coming months," wrote Betashares chief economist David Bassanese.

Australia’s construction sector shows mixed performance in Q4 2023.

In the fourth quarter of 2023, Australia's total construction work experienced a slight quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.7%. However, this growth rate was slower than the previous quarter and fell short of market expectations.

The uptick was primarily driven by gains in non-residential and engineering construction, while building and residential construction saw declines. Geographically, construction activity rose in some states and territories but fell in others.

Despite the mixed performance, annual construction work done showed a solid increase of 8.7% in the fourth quarter.

Global

  • U.S. economy grows 3.2%, durable goods orders plunge in January.
  • Japan's inflation rate declines to 2.2%.
  • Germany's PMI falls, business climate & consumer sentiment improve.

Q4 2023: U.S. economy grows 3.2%, durable goods orders plunge in January.

The US economy grew by 3.2% in Q4 2023, slightly below the initial estimate of 3.3%, with private inventories dragging down growth. However, consumer spending, government spending, exports, imports, and non-residential investment saw positive revisions. For the full year 2023, the US economy grew by 2.5%, showing improvement from 2022's 1.9% growth.

In January, new orders for manufactured durable goods dropped by 6.1% compared to the previous month, exceeding market expectations. This decline, the largest since April 2020, was primarily driven by a significant decrease in orders for transportation equipment, including nondefense aircraft and parts, as well as motor vehicles and parts.

Japan's inflation rate declines to 2.2% in January.

In January, Japan's annual inflation rate decreased to 2.2%, marking its lowest level since March 2022, down from 2.6% in the previous month. Notably, food prices experienced the smallest increase in 16 months, rising by 5.7% compared to December's 6.7%. The core inflation rate fell to 2.0%, surpassing market consensus but remaining within the Bank of Japan's 2% target after exceeding it for 21 months. Monthly, consumer prices remained unchanged.

German manufacturing plummets, business climate stabilises, consumer sentiment edges up.

Germany's manufacturing PMI plunges to 42.3 in Feb, indicating a significant sector downturn, driven by reduced output and new orders amidst weak domestic and international demand. Job losses reach 3.5-year high. Meanwhile, the Ifo Business Climate sees a slight uptick to 85.5, maintaining stability but showing mixed sentiment across sectors. The GfK Consumer Climate edges up to -29.0 in March, with income expectations rising but growing pessimism towards the economy's outlook.

Compliance conversations

Don't get hooked: unmasking three deceptive online scams.

Online scamming is becoming more and more sophisticated, with AI replication, forged documents, and long-lasting con scams causing people to suffer both financially and emotionally. Let’s take a look at three common scams.

Fake parcel delivery scams: Scammers use fraudulent text messages claiming to be from delivery services like Australia Post with URLs to lure people into clicking and revealing personal information. While many people ignore and block these messages, some, particularly those in vulnerable states, may engage and fall victim to the scam. An elderly woman was being manipulated during a four-hour telephone call, after being told her postage was insufficient and payment was requested, into granting access to her laptop and internet banking, ultimately losing US$25,000.

Fraud involving impersonation and unauthorized asset claims: A freelance journalist, who writes financial advice columns for The Cut, lost US$50,000 to a scam. She was told by a scammer that the CIA would seise her assets because her identity had been stolen by a drug cartel. Believing this, she handed over her life savings in a shoebox to a person in a vehicle parked outside her apartment and never saw it again after the scam.

Fake investment reimbursement scam: A man was caught up in a long con lasting over six months. He was lured by the false promise of a payment, purportedly a reimbursement for a previous investment, using forged documents from the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). Despite numerous red flags and explicit warnings, including confirmation from the FCA that the documents were forgeries, the man continued to engage with the scammers, demonstrating the potent combination of greed and psychological manipulation at play.

The ASIC provides a checklist of common scams and ways to avoid them. To learn more, visit ASIC’s website.

Discover more on our ‘Compliance conversation’ blog page, where we share the latest updates on safeguarding against scams and protecting your assets. Stay informed and stay protected!

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Disclaimer: The information provided on this page is issued by BTC Markets Pty Ltd (BTC Markets, we, us, our). The information is general only and is not intended to constitute an opinion or recommendation with respect to its contents. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any reference to past performance is intended to be for general illustrative purposes only. The information cannot be relied upon for any purposes and is not intended to be a substitute for professional advice.

The information does not purport to be complete, accurate or contain all of the information that a person may require to make a decision. It may also contain forward looking statements, which are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors. We recommend you obtain professional advice before making any decision with respect to the matters discussed in this document. To the maximum extent permitted by law, BTC Markets will have no liability for any loss or liability of any kind: (i) arising in respect of the information contained (or not contained) on this page; or (ii) arising from a person relying on any information or statement contained on this page. The information provided is only intended for recipients in Australia. This information cannot be reproduced without our prior written permission.

Weekly prices are accurate as of 11:00 AM AEST on 29/02/2024.

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