Whale activity signals changing dynamics in Bitcoin’s market cycle

Whales selling in isolation isn’t usually significant. As I told Cointelegraph, what makes it notable now is the lack of meaningful bid support on the buy side to absorb that selling. Earlier in the cycle, ETFs and MicroStrategy were providing steady demand. Without those buyers, the recent sell-heavy flow appears to be driving the steady decline in BTC we have seen.

Do Bitcoin’s market cycles still hold?

Identifying where we are on the cycle is very tricky. Do cycles even exist anymore? And if so, are we talking about Bitcoin cycles or broader business cycles?

From a Bitcoin perspective, market tops have historically occurred roughly four years apart: December 2017, then November 2021, and four years from that brings us to where we are today. If you follow the four-year cycle framework, the question becomes whether we have already topped or if there is still room to run.

Looking at the duration from cycle bottom to top: 2017 peaked 1,067 days from its bottom, 2021 peaked at 1,058 days, and the recent all-time high on 6 October 2025 came 1,050 days from the bottom.

From that view, it is plausible that we have already topped this cycle and are entering the early stages of a bear market.

Why this cycle may be different

The four-year cycle concept isn’t bulletproof. We effectively have a sample size of two, and Bitcoin in 2025 is not the same asset it was in prior bull markets.

Demand dynamics are very different now, with ETFs and corporate treasuries (mainly MicroStrategy) holding over 12% of the total 21 million BTC supply. These buyers don’t trade cycles or follow the four-year rhythm. The appetite of these players has been weak recently, but that can change quickly.

Only time will tell whether we have just seen a cycle top. There are fundamental reasons why Bitcoin may no longer follow a four-year rhythm, but the strength of those fundamentals is being tested right now.

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