2025 Market outlook

Foreword by Caroline Bowler, CEO of BTC Markets

As 2024 comes to a close, I want to thank you, our clients, for your trust and support. This year, we've seen significant advancements in the crypto space, including Bitcoin's deeper integration into traditional finance and AMP Super’s pioneering allocation.

At BTC Markets, we've focused on bridging innovation with accessibility, enhancing tools, assets, and educational resources for all investors. Looking ahead to 2025, we're excited about the growth and opportunities in the blockchain space. Together, we’ll continue to explore new digital asset use cases and shape the future of the crypto industry.

Wishing you and your loved ones a safe and joyful holiday season.

Kind regards,

Caroline Bowler, CEO

BTC Markets

OTC Desk holiday trading hours

From 23 December 2024 to 6 January 2025, the OTC desk will operate on limited hours. Please click here to view our full trading schedule.

2024 in review

Before we turn our attention to 2025, let’s reflect on the remarkable achievements of the market and its growing presence in global finance. Here’s a look back at some of the standout moments of the year and the top-performing assets that have shaped the market.

BTC Markets top performers

This year saw impressive gains across a range of digital assets, as we witnessed a return to the 'dino-coins' that were popular in the last cycle. Legacy cryptocurrencies, alongside newer platforms, delivered significant year-to-date (YTD) performance, highlighting growing market interest and adoption across blockchain ecosystems.

Sui (SUI) 449% YTD: A high-performance layer-1 blockchain designed for scalable and efficient decentralised applications, leveraging innovative dataflow programming.

XRP (XRP) 301% YTD: The native token of the Ripple network, XRP facilitates fast, low-cost cross-border payments, appealing to global financial institutions.

AAVE (AAVE) 237% YTD: A decentralised finance protocol enabling users to lend, borrow, and earn interest on crypto assets without needing intermediaries.

Stellar (XLM) 229% YTD: The native asset of the Stellar network, designed to facilitate cross-border transactions to bridge the gap between traditional finance and blockchain.

Hedera (HBAR) 220% YTD: A public distributed ledger built on hash graph technology, offering fast, secure, and energy-efficient solutions for enterprises and developers.

*YTD as of 19/12/2024 at 11am on the BTC Markets exchange.

Bitcoin’s record-breaking year

The year began with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving spot Bitcoin ETFs, marking a milestone for institutional access and driving Bitcoin and its ETFs to record highs. BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF ($IBIT) set an unprecedented pace, surpassing US$57 billion in assets under management (AUM) in just 11 months, over five times faster than the gold ETF ($GLD), which took approximately 5.5 years to achieve the same milestone.

In April, Bitcoin underwent its fourth halving event, reducing the rate of new Bitcoin issuance by 50%. This event, occurring every four years, decreased the supply of new Bitcoin entering circulation, increasing scarcity. Historically, halvings have driven price increases as demand outpaces supply. The 2024 halving reinforced Bitcoin’s deflationary nature and its fixed supply of 21 million.

Trump’s pro-crypto stance

Market sentiment surged in December as Bitcoin surpassed the landmark US$100,000, fuelled by Trump’s pro-crypto stance, which bolstered institutional adoption and investor confidence. Key developments amplified this momentum, including Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy spearheading the US Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and David Sacks being appointed as the crypto and AI czar.

Adding further support, US Senator Cynthia Lummis advocated for a strategic Bitcoin reserve, reinforcing the growing alignment between policy and the digital asset industry. These pro-crypto positions signalled a broader acceptance of cryptocurrencies at both institutional and governmental levels, driving optimism and underscoring Bitcoin’s role as a key financial asset.

Ethereum ETFs ignite

After a slow start, Ethereum ETFs launched in July by major issuers like Fidelity and BlackRock, caught fire in the latter half of the year, attracting over US$1.3 billion in inflows within two weeks. This surge followed broader market momentum triggered by Trump’s presidential win, which eased market uncertainty. Ethereum’s price broke through the US$4,000 mark in December, its highest level since March, driving investor enthusiasm.

Fidelity’s Ethereum Fund led with US$836.7 million in inflows, while BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust and Grayscale’s Ethereum Mini Trust added significant contributions. The rally was further supported by a bounce in the NFT market, amplifying Ethereum’s renewed momentum.

Altcoins surge as adoption soars

Altcoins experienced a significant surge, with tokens like SUI, AAVE, XRP, and HBAR gaining substantial momentum. This rise was driven by increased corporate adoption, as major Fortune 500 companies such as IBM, Microsoft, Amazon, JPMorgan, and Meta integrated blockchain and cryptocurrency technologies into their operations, signalling growing mainstream acceptance.

Regulatory clarity played a pivotal role in fuelling this growth. Key developments, such as the proposed US Bitcoin Act and the resignation of Gary Gensler from the SEC, helped reduce uncertainty in the market, particularly benefiting XRP and Ripple, which had faced prolonged legal challenges. Trump’s pro-crypto stance also contributed to this shift, with his promises of favourable crypto regulations further boosting market optimism.

Locally, institutional sentiment shifted as AMP Super announced its landmark Bitcoin allocation, and the Australian government committed to developing a comprehensive digital asset regulatory framework. Together, these factors strengthened confidence in the altcoin market, setting the stage for continued expansion.

2025 trends to watch

As we enter a new year, the crypto industry is poised for a year of significant transformation, driven by technological innovations, evolving market dynamics, and growing institutional involvement.

The convergence of artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain, alongside the continued expansion of decentralised physical infrastructure network (DePIN), blockchain gaming, tokenisation of real-world assets (RWA), and the rise of utility tokens, is shaping the industry's future.

The success of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs will pave the way for the launch of ETFs for alternative assets like Solana, XRP, and other cryptocurrencies. This growth will attract more institutional investment, diversify the market, and expand crypto adoption, creating new opportunities for asset exposure and innovation.

Here's an overview of the key trends to watch:

AI and AI Agents

The convergence of artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain technology is unlocking new possibilities across various sectors. Two promising projects in this space are demonstrating the potential of this intersection:

NEAR Protocol (NEAR): A high-performance blockchain designed to seamlessly integrate with AI technologies. Its scalable and developer-friendly infrastructure enables the creation of AI-powered decentralised applications (dApps). View NEAR.

Emerging potential: AI integration with crypto remains in its infancy, with numerous projects in experimental phases, paving the way for future advancements in efficiency and personalisation.

Decentralised physical infrastructure network (DePIN)

The combination of decentralised infrastructure and blockchain technology is creating new opportunities, from enabling autonomous agents to managing complex tasks, optimising operations, and enhancing efficiency across various industries.

Render Network (RNDR): Primarily known for its decentralised GPU rendering, RNDR’s infrastructure is being explored for high-demand computational tasks, including AI workloads that require significant processing power. View RNDR.

Emerging potential: The ability to create autonomous, decentralised networks powered by blockchain could reshape how we think about resource ownership and access, leading to greater innovation and growth in the crypto space.

Blockchain gaming

The gaming industry continues to embrace blockchain technology, merging entertainment with economic opportunity through play-to-earn (P2E) and metaverse platforms.

Immutable X (IMX): As a layer-2 Ethereum scaling solution, Immutable X has become essential for gas-free NFT minting, enabling seamless integration of blockchain into gaming ecosystems. View IMX.

Emerging potential: Blockchain gaming is projected to grow exponentially in 2025, driven by advancements in scalability, NFT integration, and increased adoption of decentralised gaming economies that offer real-world rewards.

Real-world asset (RWA) tokenisation

Tokenising traditional assets like real estate, intellectual property, and commodities is unlocking liquidity, broadening market access, and attracting growing institutional interest.

Ondo Finance (ONDO): This platform is at the forefront of tokenising traditional financial products, including U.S. Treasury bonds, offering innovative yield opportunities within decentralised finance (DeFi). View ONDO.

Emerging potential: The RWA tokenisation market is expected to expand in 2025, as institutions explore blockchain’s ability to reduce barriers to investment, enable fractional ownership, and enhance transparency in asset management.

Utility tokens driving DeFi

Utility tokens play a pivotal role in decentralised finance (DeFi), enabling lending, borrowing, and seamless decentralised trading on blockchain-based platforms.

Aave (AAVE): Empowers users to lend, borrow, and earn interest on crypto without relying on intermediaries. It serves as a cornerstone of the DeFi ecosystem. View AAVE.

Uniswap (UNI): Governs the Uniswap protocol, a leading decentralised exchange that facilitates peer-to-peer token swaps without intermediaries, driving liquidity and innovation in the DeFi space. View UNI.

Emerging potential: The integration of real-world assets with DeFi protocols signals a transformative shift, unlocking new revenue streams, expanding market accessibility, and encouraging institutional adoption of decentralised financial systems.

Looking ahead to 2025

The crypto market is poised for significant growth in 2025, fuelled by technological innovation, regulatory clarity, and increasing institutional interest. The expansion of crypto ETFs, especially for assets like Solana, XRP, and other altcoins, will drive further mainstream adoption.

Regulatory clarity will play a critical role in boosting market confidence and adoption, while innovations in DeFi and smart contracts continue to transform various industries. Additionally, the growing adoption of Web3 technologies will reshape ownership and governance models.

The price outlook for Bitcoin and Ethereum in 2025 varies significantly across different financial institutions. Several major firms, such as BlackRock and Fidelity, remain optimistic about Bitcoin's future but avoid committing to specific targets. Meanwhile, VanEck, Bitwise, and Bernstein have provided more detailed predictions, with Bitcoin potentially reaching between US$120,000 and US$200,000.

For Ethereum, projections range from US$6,000 to US$11,800, depending on factors like institutional demand and ETF adoption. Standard Chartered has reaffirmed its $200,000 Bitcoin and $10,000 Ethereum forecasts, while Bitwise and Bernstein have made slightly more conservative estimates for Ethereum's price growth in 2025.

As the cryptocurrency industry continues to evolve, staying on top of global market trends and regulatory changes will be key to successfully navigating this fast-moving space.

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