Informational

AI Agents: The next step change in crypto adoption

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Jamie Coutts
AI Agents: The next step change in crypto adoption

Preview of Pro Crypto Deep Dives with Real Vision’s Chief Crypto Analyst, Jamie Coutts

Report release date: January 15, 2025

To access Jamie’s full report, sign up for Real Vision Pro Crypto using code BTC15 for your exclusive BTC Markets discount.

Introduction

The world of crypto is buzzing with a new meta: AI agents. While these first-generation agents might seem underwhelming — after all, they’re far from being fully autonomous — their rapid development is signalling something much larger. This is just the beginning of a shift that will fundamentally reshape blockchain adoption, use cases, and value accrual. Think of them as the first spark of a fire that’s about to ignite across the crypto ecosystem.

This report explores how AI agents are driving a transformative shift in blockchain adoption and the infrastructure platforms at the heart of this evolution. With valuations surging and innovation accelerating, the opportunities are clear — but so are the challenges. Instead of chasing the hype around individual agents, I’m focusing on the underlying foundations that power this growth. Timing, strategy, and a sharp eye on liquidity impulses will be key as I position for what’s next in this rapidly evolving space.

Key Insights

1. AI Agent Infrastructure Platforms Lead the Charge

Platforms like VIRTUALS, ai16z, and now ZEREBROS are driving the AI agent meta, enabling rapid agent creation and capturing value from ecosystem growth. These platforms are critical infrastructure, akin to the “rails” of this new AI economy.

2. Rapid Growth, But with Dilution

Over 14,000 agents have already been launched on the VIRTUALS platform, suggesting up to hundreds of thousands by year-end across all platforms. However, much like memecoins, 99% of these agents will likely recede to irrelevance, leaving a small concentration of high-performing agents to dominate the market.

3. Fee Revenue Reflects Promising Momentum

VIRTUALS generated $64 million in fee revenue in just three months, putting it among the top revenue-generating protocols in crypto. With an MC/Fees ratio of 15.81x, it remains attractively valued compared to other blockchains and dApps like Uniswap.

4. The Macro Backdrop Demands Caution

Tightening financial conditions, a strong dollar, and elevated Treasury yields present headwinds for risk assets. While blockchain adoption remains resilient, cautious positioning is essential in this challenging environment.

5. Platforms Offer Better Risk-Adjusted Returns

Instead of betting on individual agents, foundational infrastructure platforms provide a more sustainable way to profit from exposure to this sector. As the market matures, these platforms are well-positioned to capture the lion’s share of value.

Part I: So, AI Agents Happened…

In the blink of an eye, as the year was winding down, crypto witnessed a step change with the rise of on-chain AI agents. Just 2 months ago, these agents were rudimentary chatbots posing as influencers and KOLs. Fast forward to today, and we are seeing the beginnings of what’s to come: sophisticated entities capable of dynamic decision making, learning from on- and off-chain data, and even navigating the complexities of decentralized finance DeFi).

This leap forward unlocks new levels of functionality and adaptability, transforming AI agents from simple task executors to tools for a range of blockchain activities. It’s been fascinating to see how quickly use cases have multiplied:

  • In content creation, $VIRTUAL powers virtual influencers and NFTs, while its $LUNA agent brings AI-driven marketing to platforms like TikTok.
  • In DeFi, agents like $AIXBT and $SEKOIA are churning out on-chain and investment insights on X to the masses while providing stakers with premium services like onchain analytics and asset management exposure. Whether they will be able to beat the market is TBD, but we will soon be finding out.
  • In gaming, $GAME and $SERAPH are enhancing gameplay, managing in-game assets, and creating dynamic narratives.
  • General automation is exemplified by agents like $AGENT_ALGO and $THALES, which handle blockchain interactions with unparalleled efficiency.

Beyond these industries, AI agents are being tested in legal, educational, and healthcare applications. Projects like $FET are pioneering solutions in data analysis and personalized learning, all while maintaining blockchainʼs hallmark privacy and security benefits.

The future is no less extraordinary. Recently, on a podcast, Jansen Teng, co-founder of Virtuals, the leading AI Infrastructure platform, described a capability spectrum that agents live on.

“Level one agents rely more on human prompts, similar to a tool. For instance, a trading agent can connect to various trading APIs (like Binance, Bybit), and you can tell it, ‘Help me open a position when Bitcoin drops by 15%,’ and it will execute the operation based on the instruction.
We are currently at the level three agent stage. Level three agents have their own goals, can autonomously plan the steps to achieve those goals, and utilize surrounding resources to complete tasks. They will continuously summarize effective practices and optimize action strategies through self-learning to achieve their goals more efficiently. This capability is the core direction of our current development.”
5 levels of ai

AI Sector Performance Overview

Before we dive further in let’s take a look at the charts.

All this development has led to an explosion in total market cap. The top 40 AI-related assets I track have reached a collective circulating market cap of $29 billion, rising 278% and 383% over the past 3 and 6 months, respectively (although as this report goes off to the publishers we are starting to see a healthy correction).

top 40 AI-related assets

Source: Artemis xyz, Coingecko, Helios Analytics

(Note: this is not the Bitformance sector index which is undergoing an index reconstruction)

Since Q3, a new subsector has emerged alongside existing ones, driven solely by the arrival of AI Agents and the infrastructure enabling their on-chain operations. I’ll share more on the framework for classifying these protocols, but for now, I’m referring to the latter as AI agent infrastructure platforms or “AI platforms.”

The first of these AI platforms, Virtuals, ai16z, and Zerebros alone have seen their collective market cap surge from $400 million to $6.49 billion in just 2–3 months.

top 40 AI-related assets

Source: Artemis xyz, Coingecko, Helios Analytics

According to Cookie.fun, a data analytics platform with its own token, $COOKIE (ofc), the total value of its agents and infrastructure assets exceeds $16 billion. However, it’s unclear how this figure is calculated, as the circulating market cap appears to be under $10 billion. (I have limited access to the platform, so I couldn’t clarify the methodology.)

Cookie.fun, a data analytics platform

Speaking of Cookie.fun, this is an intriguing data analytics platform that’s quickly gaining traction. To access their premium analytics, users must lock 10,000 $COOKIE tokens for a 30-day bonding period. I considered buying the required tokens before starting this report, but as I was researching, the token’s price surged — causing the platform access cost to jump from $200 in late November to $5,760 today. Given the vague details about what “premium” includes, I’ve decided to pass.

$COOKIE tokens

The meteoric rise of AI Agent infrastructure platforms has stolen the spotlight from earlier sector leaders like Bittensor, Fetch, and Render, which dominated the first AI wave from Q4 2023 to Q1 2024. These newer platforms have surged into the top five AI x Crypto thematic plays, driving the majority of performance over the past three months.

This shift is both a cautionary and predictable reminder of how quickly trends evolve in the crypto space, with attention and capital always chasing the next big thing.

top five AI x Crypto thematic plays

Source: Artemis xyz, Coingecko, Helios Analytics

Crypto Hype Cycles: Bubble or Breakthrough?

Is this a speculative bubble or a legitimate transformation of crypto? The evidence suggests it’s both, we’re seeing typical bubble behaviour underpinned by genuine technological advancement. However, my analysis indicates we’re still in the early stages of this cycle.

To understand where we are, let’s examine historical crypto hype cycles through search trend data.

Historical Context: DeFi and NFT Cycles (2020-2023)

Past crypto innovations like DeFi and NFTs followed distinct hype cycles, typically lasting 6–12 months from their initial surge to peak interest. These cycles were marked by rapid adoption, soaring valuations, and an inevitable pullback.

Understanding these patterns provides a framework for analyzing the current wave of AI-driven adoption and where it might lead.

Current AI Agent Cycle Analysis

Search interest in AI Agents began surging in November 2024. Historically, similar trends suggest that growth continues for at least another four months (conservative) and potentially up to ten months. The upper limit aligns with the projected peak in my liquidity-based market model. However, as always, these are projections — markets are anything but predictable.

Search interest in AI Agents

Source: Google Search

AI Agent Meta: Still Niche, Not Mainstream

A comparison of search volumes for “crypto” and “AI agents” shows a clear gap — while AI agents dominate industry chatter, they’re far from mainstream recognition. Unlike crypto, which has arguably entered the public zeitgeist, AI agent technology is still in its early discovery phase. This positions it at the start of its adoption curve, with ample room for growth before reaching market saturation.

search volumes

Source: Google Search

Secular Trends: The Evolving Narrative of Blockchain Adoption

Crypto’s ability to latch onto narratives and drive asset values to insane heights is as fascinating as it is important to understand for a clear perspective on its evolution. Consider the DeFi and NFT booms — what began as hype cycles with soaring prices and sharp corrections has since matured into indispensable, composable layers of blockchain technology.

Even the memecoin frenzy had its role to play. Despite lacking “real utility,” tokens themed around dogs, cats, and fish stress-tested blockchain infrastructure with massive trading volumes, paving the way for a tokenized economy that will likely facilitate tens to hundreds of trillions of dollars in annual on-chain activity by the end of the decade.

Memecoins provide a useful lens for understanding the current hype around AI agent tokens. While AI agent tokens share the memetic appeal of memecoins, they go way further by offering deeper social interaction capabilities and, increasingly, practical utility. This combination of hype and function will likely drive their rise — and eventual fall — mirroring patterns seen in earlier crypto trends.

I don’t judge these moments of mania based on how useful they appear on the surface. Each wave — from DeFi to NFTs, memecoins, and now AI agent tokens — has played a vital role in attracting new audiences, introducing novel ideas, and expanding what blockchain technology can achieve. Together, they form the steppingstones of crypto’s evolution, driving adoption and innovation to ever greater heights.

And now, with AI entering the mix, we’re on the cusp of another game-changing leap in blockchain adoption. The AI Agent meta is massive, and I think this framework shared by zkSync co-founder @karsenthil nails it.

Blockchain’s evolution happens in waves — each one shaping crypto’s growth and expanding its reach:

Blockchain’s evolution happens in waves

Source: @karsenthil

I fully agree with @karsenthil’s analysis: application-layer usability is the next big leap for blockchain. Even as someone deeply entrenched in the space, managing wallets across different entities and coordinating cross-chain activities remains frustrating as hell. Streamlining these pain points isn’t just a nice-to-have — it’s the key to unlocking adoption at a scale we’ve yet witnessed.

Enter AI-powered agents. These transformative tools will turbocharge usability, pushing blockchain daily active addresses from 20million today to a projected 100 million within the next three years — a trend I explored in my first report for Real Vision (November 2023).

Enter AI-powered agents

This evolution is not an outlier; it is the next phase in blockchainʼs secular growth trend, arriving right on cue.

More Reasons Why This Can’t Be Ignored

The emergence of AI-powered agents is reshaping the blockchain space in profound ways. While these first AI agents were relatively narrow and primitive, their potential is staggering. Here are the standout advancements I’m most excited about:

AI-Powered Crypto Abstraction

AI is poised to eliminate the technical friction that has long hindered broader crypto adoption. Wallets, bridges, and gas fees will fade into the background, making blockchain technology accessible to everyone. The interface is evolving, and soon, the complexity of crypto will no longer be a barrier — it will simply work.

AI-Powered Crypto Aggregation

Imagine an AI that seamlessly integrates multiple interdependent actions into one smooth process. Booking flights, hotels, and restaurants while finding optimal yield options for leftover funds — all within an intent-based interface — will redefine efficiency. Blockchain will feel invisible, enabling users to complete complex tasks effortlessly.

AI to AI Commerce

We’re already seeing the beginnings of AI agents interacting with one another. For example, one agent employs another, or payments occur directly between agents, as seen with Luna à Story Protocol à Zerebros. This marks the dawn of AI-to-AI commerce, paving the way for a new era of autonomous economic activity. We may even see before the decade is out that AI-to-AI commerce accounts for the majority of onchain transactions.

AI DeFi aka ‘DeFaiʼ

DeFi is transforming with AI at the helm. Picture an AI-powered wallet that analyzes your portfolio, preferences, and real-time market conditions to identify high-yield opportunities. It engages other agents to audit protocols, assess risks, and reallocate assets — all without your input.

AI-powered exchanges will further enhance DeFi with intent-based trading, on-chain analytics, and automated smart advisory services. These tools will amplify activity across DeFi, memecoins, and tokenized TradFi assets, compounding the volume flowing through AI-powered interfaces.

ai defi

Revitalising DAO Governance

The promise of DAOs has often fallen short, but AI could change that. AI agents can participate in decision-making and voting, bringing efficiency and objectivity to decentralized governance models. Humans are lazy; agents will relentlessly optimise for their human-directed or autonomous objective.

This evolution may finally realise the potential of DAOs as a viable governance mechanism.

AI Will Revitalizing Crypto’s Developer Community

Crypto’s developer ecosystem has yet to recover from the 2022–23 bear market, with numbers still 20% below their peak despite the recent bull market. However, AI is set to spark a renaissance, drawing an influx of fresh intellectual capital. These new developers are beginning to recognize how crypto’s open-source ethos not only fosters innovation but also enables decentralized AI — offering a compelling alternative to the control of Big Tech oligopolies.

ai will revitalise crypto

The rapid growth of AI Agent platforms, like ai16z’s Eliza, demonstrates this shift. In just three months, Eliza has become one of the most popular frameworks globally. The convergence of AI and blockchain is reigniting developer interest and driving innovation.

While AI has drawn some developer attention away from crypto, it’s not cannibalizing the space — instead, it’s igniting a new wave of innovation.

When I first explored the AI Agent software landscape, I discovered the GitHub repository chart, which uses developer “stars” as a proxy for interest and visibility. ai16Z’s opensource Agent software, Eliza, stands out as a prime example. In just three months, it’s become the second-largest crypto AI Agent infrastructure and is on track to become the third most popular framework globally.

To access Jamie’s full report, sign up for Real Vision Pro Crypto using code BTC15 for your exclusive BTC Markets discount.

Jamie Coutts, CMT

A pioneer in crypto financial analysis and a sought-after speaker, Jamie has transitioned from traditional markets to digital assets, creating research insights for institutions assessing blockchains and digital assets as part of their strategic investment allocations. Jamie’s multi-disciplinary approach blends traditional macro, technical, and quantitative techniques with the emerging field of crypto fundamentals.

Jamie’s career started as a stockbroker in Australia before roles as an equity trader at a global macro hedge fund and equity sales in Singapore and London. In 2014, Jamie joined Bloomberg Singapore as the senior Asia Buyside equity specialist, where he later led the regional crypto/digital assets sales and product strategy before launching Bloomberg Intelligence’s crypto asset research product.

Jamie holds a business degree and two technical analysis designations, previously serving on the global board of the Chartered Markets Technician (CMT) Association, where he was also head of APAC Development. Jamie has spoken at conferences across Asia and the U.S., and his research regularly features on crypto podcasts. His content is available via the Bloomberg terminal, as well as Twitter and LinkedIn.

A passionate advocate for personal health, wellness and liberty, Jamie is committed to amplifying solutions that promote greater personal autonomy, economic freedom and decentralization.

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