Bitcoin breaks an ATH…again

Crypto market update

Date: Tuesday 12th November 2024

Bitcoin breaks an ATH...again!

When Bitcoin breaks through an all-time high (ATH), it often enters a new phase of price discovery, where the market tries to find a new ceiling. Historically, Bitcoin’s behaviour after breaking an ATH tends to show some common patterns, though it’s worth noting that every cycle can vary based on the broader market context and investor sentiment.

A surge in buying momentum typically follows when Bitcoin breaks through its price barrier, as investors anticipate further gains and short sellers rush to cover their positions, driving prices even higher. This tends to attract media attention and FOMO (fear of missing out), bringing fresh capital from retail and institutional investors, fuelling short-term upward movement. However, after an initial spike, Bitcoin typically experiences pullbacks or consolidation as traders lock in profits, allowing the market to stabilise at a new support level. In past cycles, ATH breakouts have sometimes led to exponential gains in the following months, but this depends on broader economic and market conditions.

Total crypto market cap

At the time of writing, Coinmarketcap is showing that the total crypto market capitalisation has yet to reclaim its all-time high of US$3.01 trillion, last seen on November 8, 2021, which has significant implications for Bitcoin’s price. Bitcoin, as the largest and most widely recognised cryptocurrency, often acts as a “bellwether” for the entire crypto market. When the total market cap lags its ATH, it suggests that investor confidence and capital inflows are not yet at the levels they reached in late 2021, limiting Bitcoin’s momentum. A stagnant total market cap can also indicate that altcoins and institutional interest are not pushing the ecosystem as strongly as before. To see sustained upward movement for Bitcoin, the broader crypto market typically needs to attract new liquidity and investment interest, driving both Bitcoin dominance and overall capital growth across the space.

Is Bitcoin's next stop the US$100k level?

The US$100,000 level is Bitcoin’s next major psychological price point, where many retail traders are likely to take profits. However, Bitcoin must first clear significant resistance levels before reaching this target. Currently, traders are observing resistance around US$88,400, with a further barrier at US$90,000, where increased selling pressure could slow upward momentum. These levels act as psychological thresholds where investors may feel uncertain, prompting some to lock in gains ahead of the US$100k mark. If Bitcoin successfully overcomes these resistance points, the push to US$100,000 could gain strength, though increased volatility and profit-taking may define its path along the way.

Year-end price targets

Looking at year-end price targets for Bitcoin, long-term projections suggest substantial growth if the typical market cycle repeats, albeit with diminishing returns as the market matures. If the current cycle mirrors past ones, Bitcoin’s price could potentially reach a conservative target of US$200,000, representing a 200% increase from election day, and a high-end target of US$352,000, a 400% increase. These projections assume that historical cycles of exponential growth will persist, but with slightly moderated gains as the market becomes more widely adopted. The pro-crypto Trump administration could act as a catalyst, driving institutional and retail investment, which would help push Bitcoin toward these ambitious targets.

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