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Bitcoin climbs back above US$104k

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Rachael Lucas
Bitcoin climbs back above US$104k

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State of crypto

  • Bitcoin climbs back above US$104K after-market shake-up
  • MicroStrategy plans new Bitcoin purchase, surpassing U.S. gov holdings
  • DeepSeek AI disrupts markets with transformative impact
  • Japanese firm Metaplanet announces major Bitcoin investment
  • Ripple continues to expand its global regulatory footprint

Check prices on the BTC Markets exchange

Bitcoin regains momentum, climbing back to US$104K after-market shake-up

The cryptocurrency market demonstrated strong resilience, with Bitcoin rebounding above US$104,000 after briefly dipping below $98,000. This recovery occurred despite US$457 million in ETF outflows, highlighting the market’s growing strength.

Among major cryptocurrencies, Litecoin (LTC) has led today's gains with a 5% surge to US$115, while Chainlink (LINK) and Uniswap (UNI) recorded increases of up to 4% on the day. The total crypto market capitalisation rose 1.88% to US$3.44 trillion, reflecting renewed investor confidence.

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MicroStrategy plans new Bitcoin purchase, surpassing U.S. government holdings

MicroStrategy is set to acquire more Bitcoin, bringing its total holdings to 461,000 BTC, surpassing the U.S. government's holdings. Despite recent market fluctuations, including Bitcoin's consolidation around US$101,000, MicroStrategy's founder remains committed to long-term Bitcoin investments. This comes amid significant shifts in U.S. digital asset policy.

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DeepSeek AI disrupts markets with transformative impact

The emergence of Chinese AI startup DeepSeek caused significant disruption across both cryptocurrency and traditional markets. The announcement of its highly cost-efficient AI model triggered a historic selloff, with Nvidia losing US$600 billion in market value, the largest single-day value wipeout for any company in history. This staggering loss more than doubled Nvidia’s prior record of US$279 billion on 3 September 2024. For perspective, Meta’s US$251 billion market capitalisation loss on 3 February 2022 now ranks as the third-largest daily decline.

Japanese firm Metaplanet announces major Bitcoin investment

Japanese investment firm Metaplanet has announced plans to raise US$745 million through a 21-million-share issuance to fund Bitcoin acquisitions. The firm aims to purchase 10,000 BTC by the end of 2025 and 21,000 BTC by 2026, positioning itself as one of Asia’s largest institutional Bitcoin holders. This initiative marks the largest capital raise in Asian equity markets specifically for Bitcoin investment, reflecting growing institutional interest in digital assets.

Ripple continues to expand its global regulatory footprint

Ripple continues to expand its global regulatory footprint, securing Money Transmitter Licenses in New York and Texas. With over 50 U.S. licenses and more than 60 regulatory approvals worldwide, Ripple has now processed over US$70 billion in payment volume across 90+ markets. The expansion comes at a time of increasing institutional adoption and a regulatory landscape that is becoming more favourable under the Trump administration.

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Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows

spot btc etf inflows

Source: TheBlock.co

Crypto Fear & Greed Index

crypto fear and greed

Source: Fear & Greed Index

BTC Markets in the news

AFR: Coalition channels Trump and says it will be a ‘friend’ of crypto

The Coalition says cryptocurrency investors and developers will find a friend in a Dutton government, which it claims will prioritise legislation to protect buyers of bitcoin and other types of digital assets.

Rachael Lucas, an analyst at crypto exchange BTC Markets, said both major political parties were becoming friendlier to the sector.

“It is vital given what is happening globally, especially in the US, that Australia creates appropriate and proportionate legislation, as a clear regulatory framework is essential to foster innovation while ensuring consumer protection and market integrity,” Ms Lucas said.

Read the full article here.

Investordaily.com.au: Bitcoin on road to US$120k as promise of pro-crypto future drives momentum

With Trump now officially in the Oval Office, industry experts predict that Bitcoin will continue to gain dominance but worry that Australia could fall behind.

Responding to this news, local exchange BTC Markets commended the move.

“We applaud the SEC’s proactive stance in seeking technical assistance from Congress during this crucial regulatory evolution. These efforts reflect an emerging recognition of the integral role digital assets play in modern financial systems,” BTC Markets’ head of finance, Charlie Sherry, said.

Read the full article here.

BTC Markets announcements

Preview of Pro Crypto Deep Dives with Real Vision’s Chief Crypto Analyst, Jamie Coutts

real vision crypto deep dive

The world of crypto is buzzing with a new meta: AI agents. While these first-generation agents might seem underwhelming, after all, they’re far from being fully autonomous, their rapid development is signalling something much larger. This is just the beginning of a shift that will fundamentally reshape blockchain adoption, use cases, and value accrual. Think of them as the first spark of a fire that’s about to ignite across the crypto ecosystem.

This report explores how AI agents are driving a transformative shift in blockchain adoption and the infrastructure platforms at the heart of this evolution. With valuations surging and innovation accelerating, the opportunities are clear, but so are the challenges. Instead of chasing the hype around individual agents, I’m focusing on the underlying foundations that power this growth. Timing, strategy, and a sharp eye on liquidity impulses will be key as I position for what’s next in this rapidly evolving space. Read the preview report here.

To access Jamie’s full report, sign up for Real Vision Pro Crypto using code BTC15 for your exclusive BTC Markets discount.

Policy Week 2025 x BTC Markets

policy week 2025

BTC Markets is proud to sponsor Policy Week 2025! From 10th -14th March in Sydney, Australia, Policy Week 2025 will bring together policymakers, industry leaders, and regulatory pioneers to shape the future of digital assets, blockchain, regtech, and fintech. This year’s event focuses on creating actionable industry outcomes in response to the rapidly evolving regulatory landscape across APAC, the UK, the EU, and the US. Join us in driving innovation and frameworks that are fit for purpose.

Learn more https://policyweek.com.au/

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The week ahead: economic events

Thursday, January 30th

  • 4:30pm France GDP Growth Rate
  • 7:00pm Germany & Italy GDP Growth Rate
  • 8:00pm Euro Area GDP Growth Rate, Euro Area & Italy Unemployment Rate
  • 11:15pm Euro Area Interest Rate
  • 11:30pm United States GDP Growth Rate

Friday, January 31st

  • 5:45pm France Inflation Rate
  • 6:55pm Germany Unemployment Change
  • 11:00pm Germany Inflation Rate
  • 11:30pm United States Core PCE Price Index, Personal Income & Personal Spending

Monday, February 3rd 

  • 11:45am China Caixin Manufacturing PMI
  • 8:00pmEuro Area & Italy Inflation Rate

Tuesday, February 4th

  • 1:00am United States ISM Manufacturing PMI

Wednesday, February 5th

  • 1:00am United States Job Openings
  • 11:30pm Canada Balance of Trade

Source: trading economics

Market reflections

Overview

Australia’s inflation slowed in Q4 2024 due to falling goods prices, with slight improvement in business confidence, although cost pressures remain. Manufacturing showed signs of recovery, while services slowed. In the US, Fed holds rates steady, signals patience on future cuts, durable goods orders dropped, but home sales were resilient. China’s manufacturing contracted, and Germany saw a slight business climate improvement with stabilising manufacturing. Japan faced rising inflation, weak consumer confidence, and a surprise trade surplus. The UK saw a drop in consumer confidence and mixed performance in manufacturing and services.

Australia

  • Australia's annual inflation slows in Q4, driven by easing goods prices
  • Business confidence edges up, but cost pressures persist
  • Manufacturing PMI rebounds in January, but services show signs of slowdown

Australia's annual inflation slows to 2.4% in Q4 2024, driven by easing goods prices

Australia’s annual inflation rate fell to 2.4% in Q4 2024, down from 2.8% in Q3 and slightly below market expectations of 2.5%. This marked the lowest inflation rate since Q1 2021, with a notable easing in goods inflation, which dropped to 0.8% from 1.4%. The decline was primarily due to significant reductions in electricity prices (-25.2%) and fuel costs (-7.9%), supported by ongoing Energy Bill rebates. Services inflation moderated to 4.3%, a three-quarter low, with notable price reductions in food, alcohol, housing, and healthcare. However, prices rose for recreation, education, and household services. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Trimmed Mean CPI increased by 3.2%, the slowest rise in three years, yet still above the central bank's target range of 2-3%.

Australian business confidence edges up, but cost pressures persist

Australia’s NAB business confidence index rose slightly in December, marking the second consecutive month in negative territory. However, business conditions saw a strong improvement, driven by stronger sales, profitability, and a slight rise in employment. Retail was a standout, growing for the first time since November 2023. Forward orders also improved, while purchase costs continued to rise. Despite the positive signs, NAB's Chief Economist Alan Oster highlighted ongoing challenges with rising costs, particularly in labour and product pricing.

Manufacturing PMI rebounds in January, but services show signs of slowdown

Australia's Manufacturing PMI saw a welcome rise in January 2025, hitting its highest level in a year, after 13 months of decline. While output in the manufacturing sector stabilised, there were still challenges, like falling export orders and continued job cuts. Cost pressures, including higher energy, material, and wage costs, led to increased selling prices.

On the services side, growth slowed a bit, with the Services PMI dropping in December. Though demand stayed strong, employment fell for the second month in a row, and input cost inflation picked up, driving up prices. Business confidence remained positive but weakened slightly, largely due to worries over inflation and interest rates.

Overall, the Composite PMI showed marginal expansion across both sectors, with growth continuing for the fourth month in a row. However, concerns about inflation and rising interest rates kept optimism in check.

Global

Fed holds rates steady, signals patience on future cuts

  • US durable goods orders fall, but existing home sales show resilience
    China’s manufacturing sector contracts in January
  • German consumers tighten belts as business confidence inches up
  • Japan faces rising inflation, soft consumer confidence, & surprise trade surplus
  • UK consumer confidence dips, with mixed performance in manufacturing and services

United States

Fed holds rates steady, signals patience on future cuts

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% in January 2025, pausing after three rate cuts in 2024 that totalled 100bps. Chair Jerome Powell stressed the Fed is in no rush to lower rates further, opting to assess inflation progress before making additional moves. Policymakers noted that the economy continues to grow at a solid pace, with a stable unemployment rate and a strong labour market. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated, and the Fed removed its previous statement on ongoing progress toward the 2% target, highlighting uncertainty in the economic outlook and a cautious approach moving forward.

US durable goods orders fall, but existing home sales show resilience

US durable goods orders dropped 2.2% in December 2024, primarily due to a 7.4% decline in transportation equipment, especially a steep fall in nondefense aircraft. Excluding transportation, orders grew by 0.3%. Meanwhile, US existing home sales increased 2.2%, hitting a pace of 4.38 million units in December, the highest since February 2024, despite high mortgage rates. Job and wage gains, along with more inventory, have helped bolster the housing market.

China

China’s manufacturing sector contracts in January

China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI dropped in January, falling short of expectations and down from 50.1 in December. This marked the first contraction in the sector since September and the steepest decline in five months. Factory activity slowed ahead of the Lunar New Year, with output shrinking for the first time in five months. New orders and buying activity also dropped, with foreign orders and employment remaining weak. On the positive side, confidence improved to a ten-month high, although input and selling prices saw only marginal declines.

Germany

German consumers tighten belts as business confidence inches up

Germany’s economy is sending mixed signals, shoppers are cutting back, but businesses are feeling a bit more optimistic. Consumer confidence took another hit heading into February, with people worried about inflation, layoffs, and factory closures. Meanwhile, business sentiment improved slightly, thanks to a stabilising manufacturing sector. While challenges remain, there are some early signs that things might be turning a corner.

Japan

Japan faces rising inflation, soft consumer confidence, & surprise trade surplus

Japan's consumer confidence hit its lowest point since September 2023 in January, while inflation surged to 3.6% in December, driven by higher food and energy costs. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to a 17-year high as inflation momentum builds. Despite these economic pressures, Japan reported a surprise trade surplus in December, driven by record export growth, although the annual trade deficit was still smaller than in 2023.

United Kingdom

UK consumer confidence dips, with mixed performance in manufacturing and services

UK consumer confidence dropped sharply in January to its lowest since late 2023, reflecting growing economic concerns, including recent tax hikes. Manufacturing showed contraction, though at a slower pace, while services saw modest improvement. Both sectors faced inflationary pressures and a decline in new orders, with markets anticipating potential interest rate cuts from the Bank of England.

Canada

Bank of Canada cuts rates to 3% and ends QT as economy stabilises

In January 2025, the Bank of Canada reduced its key interest rate by 25bps to 3%, marking a total cut of 200bps since June 2024. The central bank also announced an end to its quantitative tightening and will begin asset purchases in March to support the economy.

With inflation now at the 2% target, policymakers expect it to remain steady over the next two years. However, US tariffs could pose a risk to Canada’s recovery, potentially dampening export demand. Despite this, Canada’s GDP growth forecast is 1.8% for 2025 and 2026, following an estimated 1.3% growth in 2024.

Spain’s economy beats expectations with strong year-end growth

Spain’s economy finished 2024 on a high note, growing 0.8% in Q4, which was faster than expected. The boost came mainly from strong domestic demand, with household spending up 1.0% and investment jumping 2.8%. Construction saw a solid 2.6% increase, while services kept expanding. On the flip side, the primary sector shrank slightly.

Overall, Spain’s economy grew 3.5% year-on-year, making it one of the Eurozone’s top performers with a full-year growth of 3.2%.

Regulation round-up

Arizona's historic Bitcoin reserve bill

Arizona has taken a significant step toward integrating Bitcoin into state finance, becoming the first U.S. state to advance legislation for a strategic Bitcoin reserve. The Senate Finance Committee approved bill SB1025 with a 5-2 vote, allowing up to 10% of public funds to be allocated to Bitcoin and other digital assets. With 11–16 states expected to propose similar bills, Arizona’s move could set a precedent for broader Bitcoin adoption at the state level.

What does the US crypto executive order mean?

President Donald Trump’s signing of the crypto executive order represents a historic milestone for the digital asset sector. The order establishes the Presidential Working Group on Digital Asset Markets, tasked with crafting a regulatory framework for digital assets and ensuring U.S. leadership in digital finance. While the initial market reaction saw Bitcoin decline by 3%, the long-term implications of this policy could redefine the global landscape of cryptocurrencies.

Here’s what it means for the industry and how it might influence Australia.

Scam awareness

Types of scams: Phone scams

1 in 3 reported scams happen by phone. Scammers call, claiming to be from well-known organisations. This includes government organisations, law enforcement, investment and law firms, banks, telecommunication providers.

They make it sound urgent to get to you act quickly. They may try to convince you to give them your personal or bank account details, or remote access to your computer. The caller may already have some details about you, such as your name or address.

Learn more at scamwatch.gov.au

Discover more on our ‘Compliance conversation’ blog page, where we share the latest updates on safeguarding against scams and protecting your assets. Stay informed and stay protected!

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Disclaimer: The information provided on this page is issued by BTC Markets Pty Ltd (BTC Markets, we, us, our). The information is general only and is not intended to constitute an opinion or recommendation with respect to its contents. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any reference to past performance is intended to be for general illustrative purposes only. The information cannot be relied upon for any purposes and is not intended to be a substitute for professional advice.

The information does not purport to be complete, accurate or contain all of the information that a person may require to make a decision. It may also contain forward looking statements, which are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors. We recommend you obtain professional advice before making any decision with respect to the matters discussed in this document. To the maximum extent permitted by law, BTC Markets will have no liability for any loss or liability of any kind: (i) arising in respect of the information contained (or not contained) on this page; or (ii) arising from a person relying on any information or statement contained on this page. The information provided is only intended for recipients in Australia. This information cannot be reproduced without our prior written permission.

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