Bitcoin rebounds after liquidation dip

TLDR

• Bitcoin holds support after US$285M in liquidations, resilient despite volatility
• Ethereum posts US$60M in ETF outflows and lags BTC’s institutional appeal
• Solana slips 10% after early-month gains as sentiment cools from sharp rallies
• Dogecoin and Avalanche finish lower while broader majors consolidate
• Macro focus turns to US jobs data and shutdown risk as Fed cuts near

Introduction

Macro signals last week leaned steady rather than dramatic. In the United States, August Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation came in at 2.7% year-on-year, with the core rate at 2.9%. The disinflation trend remained intact, showing no signs of re-acceleration. Combined with ongoing softness in the labour market, investors leaned toward the prospect of additional US Fed cuts. This supported stability in US equities, typically a constructive backdrop for higher-risk assets like crypto.

Instead, Bitcoin experienced its largest long liquidation since February, closing the week around US$112.2K after testing lows near US$108.5K. Roughly US$285M in BTC longs were liquidated on Monday, with around US$1.6B erased across the broader crypto market. Analysts noted the timing coincided with a typically low-volume period when US and EU markets were dormant. The episode served as a reminder of the importance of risk management and stop-losses in volatile conditions.

Adding to the cautious mood, the prospect of a US government shutdown on September 30th looms. While history shows last-minute resolutions are common, signals of compromise appear weaker this time. The last shutdown, in 2018–19, lasted 35 days.

Weekly trading stats as of Monday, September 29th at 10:00 AM AEST, based on data from TradingView in USD.

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Bitcoin holds support after US$285M in liquidations, resilient despite volatility

Bitcoin experienced its largest long liquidations since February, with about US$285M in leveraged positions erased as prices dipped to around US$108.5K. Despite the flush, BTC closed the week near US$112.2K, maintaining its broader uptrend above the 200-day moving average (US$104.5K). Resistance remains firm near US$113.8K–115K, while support sits around US$110K.

Bitcoin ETFs reflected the turbulence, recording US$902M in weekly outflows, though early data this week points to a modest rebound. Even with the setback, cumulative inflows remain near US$55B, underscoring BTC’s central role in institutional portfolios.

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Ethereum posts US$60M in ETF outflows and lags BTC’s institutional appeal

Ethereum followed a similar path but with lighter volumes, showing weaker institutional conviction. ETH ETFs logged US$60M in net outflows, extending their softer run compared with Bitcoin’s flows. ETH traded between US$4.18K–4.40K, holding above key support at its 200-day EMA but struggling to regain momentum. Resistance sits above US$4.5K, a zone that has capped recent rallies. While Ethereum remains attractive for staking and ecosystem growth, in the near term it continues to lag Bitcoin’s stronger macro-driven narrative.

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Solana slips 10% after early-month gains as sentiment cools from sharp rallies

Among the majors, Solana was hit hardest, retracing about 10% over the week and sliding to around US$200 after strong early-month gains. The move came alongside profit-taking in higher-beta tokens, with sentiment shifting after rapid rallies in both SOL and meme-linked assets. Technicals remain constructive, with the 200-day MA near US$158 providing a firm base and US$190–200 flipping into support.

ETF speculation and rising ecosystem activity continue to underpin longer-term momentum, even as short-term positioning looks stretched.

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Dogecoin and Avalanche finish lower while broader majors consolidate 

The weakness extended to other large-cap alts, with Dogecoin down 7% and Avalanche falling 8% over the week. Both reversed earlier strength as traders rotated into safer majors, reinforcing the selective tone of current flows.

Bitcoin dominance steadied around 58.6%, down from mid-year highs of 66% but still resilient against altcoin rotation. Despite these pullbacks, the broader majors consolidated, with price action reflecting a market still anchored by Bitcoin and Ethereum flows.

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Macro focus turns to US jobs data and shutdown risk as Fed cuts near

Attention now shifts to U.S. nonfarm payrolls and unemployment data due later this week, with investors watching closely for signs of labour-market weakness. A potential U.S. government shutdown on September 30 adds another layer of uncertainty, echoing the 35-day shutdown seen in 2018–19.

For crypto markets, these macro risks mean volatility could spike, especially around clustered BTC liquidity levels near US$114K on liquidation heatmaps. Any upside break could trigger a short squeeze, while downside risks extend to US$108K if shutdown concerns weigh on sentiment.

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What to watch this week

Markets will track US jobs data later this week (non-farm payrolls and unemployment) for clues on US Fed easing. In Australia, the RBA announces its rate decision Tuesday, with expectations for no change.

On the technical front, liquidation heatmaps highlight clusters around US$114K for BTC, suggesting any push higher could trigger a short squeeze. Downside liquidity remains light until around US$108K, keeping that level in focus. In short, macro data and ETF flows are likely to dictate the week’s volatility profile.

Closing thoughts

The crypto sell-off was driven more by market structure than new fundamental risks, with broader financial markets holding firm. This week’s macro data and the US shutdown risk will steer sentiment, alongside ETF flows.

The medium-term backdrop remains constructive: Bitcoin continues to hold key levels, institutions remain active, and innovation across digital assets underpins long-term resilience.

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