Bitcoin rebounds amid economic and regulation shifts

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State of crypto

• Bitcoin rebounds as trade tensions rise due to tariffs
• Elon Musk backs US Treasury on blockchain
• SEC launches Crypto Task Force website
• US Congress establishes cryptocurrency working group
• ETH, XRP, SOL, and more see volatility amid market uncertainty

Check prices on the BTC Markets exchange

Bitcoin rebounds as trade tensions rise due to tariffs

Bitcoin fell below the US$100K mark this week as escalating trade tensions between the US, Canada, Mexico, and China rattled global markets. Price fell to the US$92.5k range, before quickly recovering to close the day above the US$101k mark.

The upcoming tariffs, yet to be imposed fuelled economic uncertainty that led to a broader sell-off in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Analysts suggest that Bitcoin’s decline reflects investor caution amid geopolitical instability, though some analysts believe it could present a buying opportunity if support levels hold.

It’s not all doom and gloom, however: SUI has gained 4% in the past 24 hours, with trading volume soaring to US$615 million, surpassing Avalanche and Polygon. Despite this momentum, its technical indicators remain bearish, with key resistance levels still posing a challenge for a sustained recovery.

Check SOL

Elon Musk backs US Treasury on blockchain

Billionaire and US “special government employee” Elon Musk has publicly confirmed his support for putting the US Treasury on a blockchain, which has fuelled speculation about potential government adoption of the technology. Responding to discussions about financial transparency, Musk agreed that blockchain could help track federal spending and improve efficiency. While details remain unclear, there is some speculation that his team has already explored ways to integrate blockchain into government operations, sparking both excitement and scepticism within the crypto community.

Check BTC

SEC launches Crypto Task Force website

The SEC has officially launched its Crypto Task Force website, opening new communication channels for public input on crypto regulations. The task force aims to clarify the application of securities laws to digital assets, create tailored disclosure frameworks, and establish clearer guidelines for market participants. This move signals a more structured approach to crypto oversight, with the SEC inviting stakeholders to engage through meetings, roundtables, and written submissions.

Check XRP

US Congress establishes cryptocurrency working group

US Congress has officially formed a cryptocurrency working group to address the growing need for clear regulations in the digital asset space. The group will focus on developing policies that balance innovation with investor protection, aiming to create a more structured regulatory framework. Lawmakers have emphasised the importance of collaboration with industry leaders, regulators, and stakeholders to ensure the US remains competitive in the global crypto landscape.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index

Source: Fear & Greed Index

BTC Markets in the news

Bloomberg: Ether, Memecoins Plunge as Traders Dump Risk After Trump Tariffs

“Trump’s tariff war is impacting the whole market,” said Caroline Bowler, chief executive officer of BTC Markets.

“Concerns about trade wars and stagflation, triggering recessions, are cascading across alt coins and Bitcoin.”

Read the full article here.

AFR: Trump’s trade war unleashes market chaos as shares, crypto sink

“The markets have seen this type of movement before, but it is certainly a test of just how closely...the US crypto community aligns with Trump’s economic policies,” said Caroline Bowler, chief executive of local crypto exchange BTC Markets.

Read the full article here.

News.com.au: Cryptocurrency slides as Trump’s trade war rattles markets

“The impacts of Trump’s tariffs are equally being felt in crypto markets, with over $2 billion wiped out in liquidations in the past 24 hours,“ Caroline Bowler, CEO of Australia-based crypto exchange BTC Markets, told news.com.au.

“Biggest moves have been from alt-coins such as Cardano (-25 per cent), XRP (-22 per cent) and even Ethereum (-18 per cent) posting big reductions as we enter February. The markets have seen this type of movement before, but it is certainly a test of just how closely does the US crypto community align with Trump’s economic policies.”

Read the full article here.

The Block: Crypto sees over $1.7 billion liquidated in past day as Trump tariffs dampen 'overleveraged' bullish sentiment

“The continued lack of Fed stimulus (no QE) and high-interest rates have disproportionately impacted altcoins, leading to further underperformance,” said Rachael Lucas, crypto analyst at BTC Markets, adding that the high concentration of liquidations from long positions indicate that “overleveraged” bullish sentiment was being flushed out.

Read the full article here.

InvestorDaily: Coalition backs crypto, joins global push for clearer rules

BTC Markets’ head of finance, Charlie Sherry, recently said that while local efforts are underway, they need to accelerate to remain globally competitive. “We are at a pivotal moment for the sector’s future, requiring decisive action and strategic foresight,” he said.

“The global momentum around blockchain, tokenisation and cryptocurrency cannot be ignored. Over a quarter of Australians already engage with digital assets, viewing them as transparent, inclusive alternatives to traditional systems.”

Read the full article here.

Fear & Greed Podcast Interview: Ethereum fell 26% in a day. What lies ahead for crypto?

BTC Markets CEO Caroline Bowler joins Sean Aylmer to break down the outlook for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the broader crypto landscape.

Catch the episode here.

What is ‘Policy Week 2025’ and why should you care?

Policy Week 2025 is a landmark event taking place from 10–14 March in Sydney, Australia, designed to shape the future of the digital economy. It brings together policymakers, industry leaders, and regulatory pioneers to address key challenges and opportunities in digital assets, blockchain, regtech, and fintech.

Why should you care?

Because the regulatory landscape is shifting dramatically, especially in regions like the US, APAC, the UK, and the EU, and these changes will define the future of innovation, investment, and adoption in the digital economy. Policy Week 2025 is focused on creating actionable outcomes, ensuring that frameworks are not only adaptive to these changes but also drive sustainable growth.

If you’re passionate about the intersection of technology and regulation, or if your business operates in this evolving space, Policy Week 2025 offers the chance to influence the conversation, network with industry pioneers, and stay ahead of the curve in shaping tomorrow’s digital landscape.

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The week ahead: economic events

Thursday February 6th 

• 12:30am Canada Balance of Trade
• 2:00am United States ISM Services PMI
• 11:30am Australia Balance of Trade
• 11:00pm United Kingdom Interest Rate

Friday, February 7th 

• 2:00am Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index
• 3:30pm India Interest Rate
• 6:00pm Germany Balance of Trade

Saturday, February 8th

• 12:30am Canada Unemployment Rate
• 12:30am United States Non Farm Payrolls
• 12:30am United States Unemployment Rate
• 2:00am United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Sunday, February 9th 

• 12:30pm China Inflation Rate

Tuesday, February 11th 

• 10:30am Australia Consumer Confidence MoM
• 10:30am Australia Consumer Confidence
• 11:30am Australia Business Confidence

Source: trading economics

Market reflections

Overview

Australia’s economy expanded in early 2025, with rising business confidence and export prices. Inflation and sectoral challenges persist. Stronger growth may boost crypto, but liquidity risks remain. Gold’s surge reinforces Bitcoin’s "digital gold" narrative.

Australia

• Australia’s economy expands, but inflation risks and headwinds persist
• Business confidence rises, yet construction and manufacturing struggle
• Export prices climb as gold and iron ore lead gains
• Crypto markets eye risk appetite amid economic recovery

Economic momentum builds, but challenges remain for Australian markets

Australia’s economy showed signs of resilience in early 2025, with the services and manufacturing sectors expanding for the first time in over a year. Business confidence strengthened, buoyed by rising new orders and optimism about potential rate cuts. However, inflationary pressures remain, and the construction and manufacturing sectors continue to face headwinds.

Export prices rebounded, led by iron ore, LNG, and gold, while import costs unexpectedly ticked higher, reflecting currency weakness and surging gold demand. Credit growth held steady at its highest pace since mid-2023, but housing prices remained flat after a small decline in December.

What it means for crypto

For cryptocurrency markets, stronger economic growth could encourage risk appetite, supporting digital assets. However, persistent inflation and uncertain monetary policy may impact liquidity conditions. Gold’s strong performance highlights ongoing demand for safe-haven assets, a factor that could influence Bitcoin’s narrative as "digital gold."

Global

• US economy grows 2.3% in Q4, driven by strong consumer spending
• Consumer spending surge boosts US economy, despite manufacturing sector challenges
• Stable inflation and income growth highlights resilient US economic performance
• US job openings decline, labour market remains stable with low layoffs

United States

In the last quarter of 2024, the US economy grew by 2.3%, a bit slower than the 3.1% growth in the previous quarter. This growth was mainly driven by a significant 4.2% increase in consumer spending, the highest since early 2023, showing strong domestic demand. However, business investment declined, pointing to challenges in the manufacturing sector. Overall, the US economy remained resilient, achieving a 2.8% growth rate for the entire year.

What it means for crypto

The steady growth of the US economy and robust consumer spending can have mixed effects on the cryptocurrency market. On one hand, a strong economy might lead to increased investor confidence, potentially boosting interest in riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. On the other hand, persistent inflationary pressures, as indicated by the stable core PCE inflation rate of 2.8%, could lead to tighter monetary policies by the Federal Reserve, which might dampen the appeal of cryptocurrencies as an inflation hedge.

Additionally, the cooling yet stable labour market, with job openings declining but layoffs remaining low, suggests a balanced economic environment. This stability might reduce market volatility, providing a more predictable backdrop for crypto investments. However, any significant shifts in economic indicators or Federal Reserve policies could still lead to fluctuations in the crypto market.

Regulation roundup

15 US states consider Bitcoin reserves

Arizona is no longer the only US state interested in integrating BTC with its state finances. In total, 15 states are reportedly exploring the idea of creating strategic Bitcoin reserves as a hedge against inflation, following President Trump’s push for a national Bitcoin stockpile. While some see this as a proactive financial strategy, others warn it may be a political move with risky consequences. States like Montana and South Dakota have recently introduced bills to establish crypto reserves, adding momentum to the growing trend.

Trump’s AI & crypto czar pushes regulation and Bitcoin reserve

David Sacks, the first U.S. AI and crypto czar, has made crypto regulation and a potential Bitcoin reserve top priorities. At a press conference with key congressional leaders, Sacks criticized past regulatory uncertainty and emphasized the need for clear rules to keep digital asset innovation in the U.S. He also highlighted the administration’s commitment to exploring a national “digital asset stockpile,” signalling a major shift in federal crypto policy. 

SEC scales back crypto enforcement under Trump

The SEC is reducing its crypto enforcement unit, reassigning lawyers and shifting priorities as part of President Trump’s push to ease digital asset regulations. Acting SEC Chair Mark Uyeda has appointed a task force, led by crypto-friendly Commissioner Hester Peirce, to create a more innovation-friendly regulatory framework. This move marks a significant shift from the SEC’s previous aggressive stance on crypto oversight.

Scam awareness

Types of scams: Email scams

Scam emails look like the real thing but watch out for links and attachments designed to steal your money or information. 

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They use the same logo and a similar email address as the real organisation. Scammers can also copy or 'spoof' the email address of an organisation or business to make the scam email look more real.

Learn more at scamwatch.gov.au

Discover more on our ‘Compliance conversation’ blog page, where we share the latest updates on safeguarding against scams and protecting your assets. Stay informed and stay protected!

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