Fear without capitulation: Bitcoin holds firm

Welcome to your BTC Markets VIP Desk briefing.

The week in 60 seconds

• Sentiment remains in Fear at 30, even as Bitcoin holds above US$65,000 (A$93,000).
• Middle East tensions pushed Brent crude above US$100 (A$143) a barrel, weighing on equities and crypto markets alike.
• US Bitcoin ETFs snapped a seven-session, nearly US$1 billion (A$1.43 billion) inflow streak with two outflow days late in the week, though the week still closed net positive overall.
• BitMEX, one of crypto's longest-running derivatives exchanges, confirmed it will wind down operations by late September.
• The US Federal Reserve's Wednesday rate decision and Friday's monthly options expiry headline a pivotal week for global markets.

Intro

One theme defines this week: geopolitics is setting the tone across global markets, not just oil. Brent crude's push towards US$100 (A$143) a barrel has driven market sentiment more than any crypto-specific development, just ahead of the US Federal Reserve's Wednesday rate decision. Despite the backdrop, Bitcoin has remained resilient, trading in a relatively tight range while sentiment lingers in Fear.

Below, we unpack what moved markets, what the numbers are telling us, and what to watch in the week ahead.

Market snapshot

30 - FEAR. The panic has eased, but conviction has yet to return. Bitcoin continues to trade above US$65,000 (A$93,000) despite geopolitical tensions and ongoing ETF outflows, highlighting resilience in price even as sentiment remains subdued. Attention now turns to the US Federal Reserve, with this week's rate decision likely to set the tone for crypto and broader risk assets.

By the Numbers

The Week in Data

1.21 million BTC: Held collectively across all US spot Bitcoin ETFs, worth approximately US$77.7 billion (A$111.1 billion) as of 24 July. ETF holdings remain one of the clearest measures of institutional participation in the asset class.

Source: WalletPilot

US$304 billion (A$435 billion): Combined stablecoin market capitalisation, representing around 13% of the total crypto market and a useful gauge of capital waiting on the sidelines.

Source: CoinGecko

843,775 BTC: Strategy's total Bitcoin treasury, maintaining its position as the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder.

Source: Company disclosures

US$90.9 million (A$130.0 million): Crypto liquidations over the past 24 hours across approximately 50,600 traders, split relatively evenly between long and short positions.

Source: CoinGlass

Significant events

A derivatives pioneer is closing its doors, ETF outflows persist, and oil is driving market sentiment.

BitMEX to shut down by 23 September

HDR Global Trading, the operator behind BitMEX, confirmed the exchange will wind down operations by late September 2026. BitMEX was one of the first platforms to offer leveraged Bitcoin futures in 2014. The closure of a founding-era exchange reflects continued consolidation across the crypto industry, even as headline prices remain range-bound.

BlackRock's IBIT swings from inflows to outflows

US spot Bitcoin ETFs broke a seven-session inflow streak worth close to $1 billion when BlackRock's IBIT led a $225.1 million outflow on 23 July, followed by a second straight outflow day of $240.1 million on 24 July. The same fund driving the buying is now driving the selling, which says more about IBIT's outsized share of flow than a broad change in appetite.

Oil's surge is doing more than move petrol prices

Brent crude briefly rose above US$100 (A$143) a barrel this week before easing back below US$97 (A$139), driven by escalating conflict in the Middle East and concerns over shipping disruption through key maritime chokepoints. Higher oil prices feed directly into inflation expectations, which is the last thing the Fed wants to see ahead of its policy meeting. Energy-driven inflation risk, not crypto-specific news, is the dominant macro variable this week.

The Signal

Sentiment has remained in Fear for six consecutive weeks, even as Bitcoin continues to hold its ground.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index, 1-year trend

The 30-day trend shows the index bottoming at 13 (Extreme Fear) last month before recovering to 30, still well below neutral. More important than the daily moves is the length of time sentiment has remained in Fear. This combination of prolonged caution alongside relatively resilient spot prices suggests investors remain hesitant, even as the market absorbs macro uncertainty.

Source: http://alternative.me/

Economic calendar

TL;DR: This week's focus is firmly on central banks, with the US Federal Reserve's rate decision expected to set the tone for global risk assets.

29 July: Australian Q2 CPI

Australia's June-quarter inflation data arrives ahead of the RBA's next policy meeting and will help shape expectations for domestic interest rates. A stronger-than-expected reading could support the Australian dollar, with flow-on effects for BTC/AUD pricing.

30 July: US Federal Reserve rate decision

Markets broadly expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, shifting attention to Chair Warsh’s press conference and any changes in the policy statement. With oil prices adding to inflation concerns, the tone of the meeting may prove more important than the decision itself.

30 July: US Q2 GDP, PCE Price Index & Bank of England decision

A busy macro session sees the release of US second-quarter GDP, the Fed's preferred inflation measure (PCE), and the Bank of England's latest rate decision. Together with the Fed meeting, these events are likely to shape market sentiment heading into month-end.

31 July: Bank of Japan decision & monthly BTC/ETH options expiry

The Bank of Japan's policy decision will be watched for any shift in its monetary stance, while the monthly expiry of Bitcoin and Ethereum options could increase volatility as traders reposition around current price levels. Expect thinner liquidity and sharper intraday moves.

From the Desk

Oil is driving this market, not crypto news. The Fed's tone on Wednesday may matter more than the rate decision itself.

Macro, not crypto, has set the market's direction this week. Bitcoin has traded in a relatively tight range despite persistent ETF outflows and six consecutive weeks of Fear, suggesting investors remain cautious as they wait for greater clarity on inflation and interest rates.

Story of the week

The World Cup just became the biggest event in prediction market history, with blockchain quietly powering the action behind the scenes.

Kalshi and Polymarket processed more than US$5.8 billion (A$8.29 billion) in World Cup wagers during the tournament, with the two platforms' combined football-related volume surpassing anything previously seen for a single sporting event. The tournament winner market alone generated billions of dollars in volume on Polymarket, built entirely on blockchain-settled contracts rather than a traditional sportsbook ledger.

What makes this remarkable isn't just the scale, but who participated. Everyday fans, not just crypto natives, used these markets to bet on group-stage matches, upsets and penalty shootouts, with blockchain handling settlement in the background. It's a rare example of the technology reaching a mainstream audience by doing what it does best: quietly clearing and settling transactions while the focus remained on the football.

Announcements

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