Is Bitcoin on track for US$100k?

Weekly crypto wrap: 14th November 2024

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TLDR

• Bitcoin hits new all-time high with US$100k on the horizon.
• Crypto market surges as Bitcoin rallies, altcoins follow with impressive gains.
• Bitcoin ETFs surpass US$90 billion in assets, with a US$6 billion surge.
• Ethereum's rally drives institutional interest and record-breaking ETF inflows.
• Consumer confidence dips while business outlook brightens in Australia.
• US inflation steadies, but shelter and services keep pressure on prices.

BTC Markets announcements

CEO’s Corner: The future of crypto

Embracing opportunity in a new political landscape.

Former Chinese premier Zhou Enlai, when asked about the impact of the French Revolution responded, "too early to say." He was referring to 1968, not 1798, but the anecdote rings true today. For the crypto industry, it is not about points in time but rather the gradual, longer term societal shift.

The re-election of President Trump has brought a return to buoyancy across US markets. Focusing on crypto, we watched Bitcoin gain and then smash through to all-time highs of US$76,800. US Senator Cynthia Lummis exuberantly declared US Bitcoin treasury reserves as incoming policy. Pro-crypto politicians were elected, opposing politicians unceremoniously sacked. Being anti-crypto is no longer politically expedient in the United States.

Read the full blog here.

Livewire Markets: What a Trump presidency could mean for crypto.

Crypto investors brace for a potential shift in U.S. policy and regulatory direction.

The return of President Trump to the White House has already caused significant ripples on global markets, with Bitcoin emerging as a standout asset in the broader market rally.

Investors are sending a clear message: optimism for the future of crypto under Trump, especially given his public support for Bitcoin and digital assets.

President Trump’s administration is widely expected to create a more favourable environment for crypto’s growth, boosting market confidence and attracting new investment.

Read the full article here.

BTC Markets shortlisted for DECA Blockies Award!

We’re excited to share that BTC Markets has been named a finalist for the Digital Currency Exchange of the Year at the prestigious Digital Economy Council of Australia (DECA) Blockies Awards!

This nomination reflects our dedication to providing a secure, reliable, and innovative trading platform for our clients, and we’re honoured to be recognised alongside the industry’s best.

The awards ceremony will take place in Sydney on November 21st, followed by an afterparty to celebrate with leaders from across the blockchain community. Thank you for being a part of BTC Markets’ journey. We couldn’t have achieved this without your support!

If you'd like to join us, tickets are available here.

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State of crypto

• Bitcoin hits new all-time high with US$100k on the horizon.
• Crypto market surges as Bitcoin rallies, altcoins follow with impressive gains.
• Bitcoin ETFs surpass US$90 billion in assets, with a US$6 billion surge.
• Bitcoin dominance grows, raising questions about the future of altcoins and the market in 2024.
• Ethereum's rally drives institutional interest and record-breaking ETF inflows.
• Ondo Finance expands partnership with BlackRock for multi-chain tokenised treasuries.

The weekly trading stats as of Monday, November 11th at 11:00 am AEDT, based on data from Tradingview in USD.

Crypto market surges on Trump election boost as Cardano takes the lead.

The crypto market lit up following Trump’s election victory, with double-digit gains seen across most assets. Cardano (ADA) emerged as the top performer on BTC Markets, skyrocketing 76.62% over the past week. It was followed by Avalanche (AVAX), up 35.47%, and Chainlink (LINK), rising 32.43%. Ethereum also joined the rally, posting a solid 29.52% gain. Overall, the total crypto market cap jumped 19.89%, reflecting renewed investor optimism.

Check prices.

Thought Bitcoin ETFs were cooling off? Think again! $IBIT just hit US$5B in daily volume.

Just when it looked like Bitcoin ETFs might be cooling off, $IBIT shatters records again today. According to Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg’s Senior ETF Analyst, the fund recorded US$5 billion in volume, its highest level ever. This wasn't just significant for crypto; only three ETFs or eight stocks saw higher trading volume across the entire market today. Over the past three days, $IBIT has attracted US$13 billion, highlighting strong investor demand.

Source: Eric Balchunas

And it’s not just $IBIT. Other Bitcoin ETFs are seeing a surge too, though on a smaller scale. $FBTC hit US$1 billion in volume today, marking its biggest trading day since March. All in all, it’s clear that appetite for Bitcoin exposure in traditional markets is far from cooling off!

Crypto market surges as Bitcoin rallies, altcoins follow with impressive gains.

The crypto market is seeing strong upward momentum again this week, with Bitcoin leading the charge, up 9% and pushing its ETFs past US$90 billion in assets. The broader market is also experiencing a rally, with altcoins posting impressive gains. XRP is up 18%, riding a wave of renewed investor confidence, while Cardano is recovering after soaring over 76% last week, marking one of its strongest performances this year.

Sui joined the rally last week, surging over 55% as increased investor interest and network activity boost its appeal. Ethereum’s strong showing, coupled with record inflows into Ether ETFs, reflects growing optimism about the altcoin market, particularly DeFi and utility tokens.

As Bitcoin’s dominance rises, traders are eyeing altcoin opportunities, suggesting that the capital rotation could continue if Bitcoin consolidates. Overall, the market sentiment is bullish, buoyed by price action, ETF inflows, and a more favourable regulatory outlook.

Bitcoin ETFs surpass US$90 billion in assets after US$6 billion surge.

On Tuesday, Bitcoin ETFs saw a US$6 billion increase, driven by US$1 billion in net inflows and US$5 billion from market appreciation.

Source: TheBlock.co

Bitcoin dominance: what’s next for altcoins and the market in 2024?

Bitcoin dominance has been a strong indicator of market trends, and the recent surge in BTC’s price has brought it back to the forefront. During the 2020-2021 cycle, Bitcoin led the way, rising sharply as altcoins followed. However, once BTC reached its peak, dominance dropped as altcoins, particularly Ethereum and DeFi, gained traction.

As Bitcoin continues to rise, there’s speculation that if the market cap reaches US$4 trillion, it could be driven by altcoins rather than Bitcoin. Ethereum and Solana are seeing momentum, while meme coins like Dogecoin are benefitting from a relaxed regulatory environment. DeFi also looks set to thrive as market conditions improve.

Another key factor is Bitcoin’s recent halving, which has historically led to significant price increases. While Bitcoin's growth is impressive, if BTC starts to consolidate, capital could flow into altcoins, possibly offering strong returns for smaller-cap assets. But with rapid Bitcoin gains, altcoins could see sharp corrections, so caution is necessary.

Read the full analysis from Charlie Sherry, Head of Finance for BTC Markets.

Bitcoin breaks its all-time high again, is US$100k next?

Bitcoin has hit a new all-time high (ATH), sparking a familiar pattern of price discovery, where the market searches for a new ceiling. As Bitcoin pushes past its previous ATH, we often see a surge in buying momentum driven by FOMO (fear of missing out) and short sellers rushing to cover their positions. This initial spike typically attracts both retail and institutional investors, fuelling short-term price increases. However, after the rush, Bitcoin often experiences pullbacks or consolidation as traders take profits and the market finds a new support level.

As Bitcoin hits new highs, the broader crypto market is still trailing its ATH of US$3.01 trillion from November 2021, which limits Bitcoin's momentum. For Bitcoin to maintain upward movement, the market needs to draw in fresh liquidity and investment.

The next key target for Bitcoin is US$100,000, with resistance levels around US$88,400 and US$90,000. If Bitcoin clears these hurdles, the journey to US$100k could gain momentum, but increased volatility and profit-taking may define its path. Looking ahead to year-end, Bitcoin could reach a conservative target of US$200,000, or even a high-end target of US$352,000, especially if the pro-crypto Trump administration drives institutional and retail investment.

Read the full analysis from Rachael Lucas, Crypto Analyst for BTC Markets.

Check BTC/AUD prices.

Ethereum’s rally fuels institutional interest and fresh capital inflows.

Ethereum has been on fire lately, jumping almost 30% in just a week and hitting US$3,300—its highest level since July 2024. This price surge is grabbing the attention of investors, especially those who missed Bitcoin’s recent rise and now see Ethereum as an attractive option with room to grow.

What’s really driving the buzz is the growing interest from institutional investors. Big players like Fidelity and BlackRock are diving into Ethereum ETFs, giving risk-averse investors a familiar and regulated way to get involved. Add to that a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment under the new US administration, and it’s no surprise that capital is flowing into Ethereum.

Investors are also seeing Ethereum as a “second chance” after missing Bitcoin’s rally, and the rise of DeFi tokens like AAVE and UNI is adding to the optimism around Ethereum’s ecosystem. While the asset’s momentum looks strong, Ethereum’s daily RSI suggests it might be nearing overbought levels, which could lead to a short-term dip. But if Ethereum breaks past the US$3,300 mark, it could set the stage for even more growth.

Read more here.

Ethereum and Bitcoin ETFs see record-breaking inflows amid growing investor optimism.

Spot Ethereum and Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. have experienced a surge in inflows, reflecting increasing investor confidence. On November 11, Ethereum ETFs saw a record US$295.5 million in net inflows, with Fidelity, BlackRock, and Grayscale leading the charge. This brings the total assets held by U.S. Ethereum ETFs to US$9.7 billion, representing approximately 2.4% of Ethereum's market cap. At the same time, Bitcoin ETFs attracted US$1.1 billion in inflows, fuelled by strong interest in BlackRock's offering. Analysts attribute this rally to growing optimism surrounding a potentially friendlier regulatory environment under the incoming U.S. administration, which is boosting confidence in both Ethereum and DeFi assets.

Ethereum’s price also saw a significant boost, hitting a 14-week high of US$3,384, as investor sentiment surged. Ethereum is gaining momentum, closing the gap between Bitcoin and Solana as confidence in its potential for strong returns grows. With pro-crypto policies potentially on the horizon, analysts expect Ethereum to continue performing well in the months ahead.

Ethereum utility coins on the rise as regulatory optimism fuels DeFi tokens.

Ethereum utility coins are experiencing a surge in value, particularly DeFi tokens that were once seen as "useless governance tokens." These tokens, traditionally used only for voting on protocol decisions, are now gaining traction as investors anticipate that, over time, they could begin to generate real value for token holders through protocol fees. Previously, such mechanisms faced regulatory challenges, with concerns that they might be classified as securities. However, the recent shift in the regulatory landscape, especially following President-elect Trump's victory, has sparked optimism for DeFi projects.

Notable protocols like Aave and Uniswap have made strategic moves to accrue value for their tokens. Aave proposed a "fee switch," which would redirect a portion of protocol revenue to AAVE token holders, leading to a significant price rally. Similarly, Uniswap’s announcement of its Ethereum Layer-2 solution, Unichain, which will direct fees to UNI holders, has transformed the token from a governance tool to a utility asset, driving up its value.

As the regulatory environment becomes more favourable, the market is betting on other DeFi tokens, such as LIDO, ENA, MKR, and FXS, following suit, further boosting the value of Ethereum utility coins.

Read the full blog here.

Check ETH/AUD prices.

Ondo Finance expands partnership with BlackRock for multi-chain tokenised treasuries.

Ondo Finance has announced its support for BlackRock’s latest initiative in real-world asset tokenisation. BlackRock, in collaboration with Securitize, is launching its USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL token) across multiple blockchains, including Aptos, Arbitrum, Avalanche, Optimism, and Polygon. Ondo’s OUSG token, the largest holder of BUIDL, will leverage this expansion to diversify reserves, boosting liquidity.

Ondo Finance is enhancing its OUSG offering with instant minting and redemptions via USDC, daily interest payouts, and lower fees, making it more accessible to investors. This partnership is seen as a significant step forward in integrating tokenised assets with blockchain infrastructure, providing 24/7 liquidity and streamlined access to US Treasuries. The collaboration with Circle also facilitates deeper market liquidity, underscoring the growing momentum in real-world asset tokenisation.

Check ONDO/AUD prices.

Source: Fear & Greed Index

BTC Markets in the news

• Bloomberg: The Asia Trade 11/13/2024
• CNBC: U.S. crypto to get a boost from softer regulation under Trump, says BTC Markets CEO
• AFR: ‘The chase is on’: Bitcoin tipped to hit $US100,000 within weeks
• AFR: Euphoria floods crypto with bitcoin tipped to hit $US100,000
• AFR: Money piles into crypto as Trump leads polls
• The Motley Fool: Why did the Bitcoin price just rocket to another all-time high?
• Livewire Markets: What a Trump presidency could mean for crypto
• Cointelegraph: DeFi tokens soar 30% as traders tip ‘friendlier’ DeFi landscape under Trump.

Bloomberg: The Asia Trade 11/13/2024

BTC Markets CEO Caroline Bowler spoke to Bloomberg about the concept of a US Bitcoin strategic reserve:

“The bill that Senator Lummis was putting forward would still need to pass through the House and the Senate before it could be signed off by President Trump…(Lummis is proposing) the United States should take 5% in the total supply of Bitcoin, accumulating about 200,000 Bitcoin a year over the next five years…1 million Bitcoin into the strategic reserve in an equivalency to its position in gold…because it is known for being a deflationary asset, that there would be strength for the US in its position in holding Bitcoin.”

Watch Caroline’s interview from the 55:45 min mark here.

CNBC: U.S. crypto to get a boost from softer regulation under Trump, says BTC Markets CEO

Caroline Bowler, CEO of Australian cryptocurrency exchange BTC Markets, discusses how Donald Trump’s election victory in the U.S. might affect cryptocurrency and its regulation.

Watch the full interview here.

Bloomberg: Crypto Buying Spree Puts Bitcoin on Cusp of 100% Rally This Year

“A rising tide lifts all boats and the boom in Bitcoin rippled on to the alts relatively quickly,” said Caroline Bowler, chief executive officer of digital-asset exchange BTC Markets Pty. “The sector in its entirety is expected to be a net beneficiary of Trump’s administration.”

Read the full article here.

Cointelegraph: ‘Ethereum is starting to catch a bid’ — US ETFs hit record $295M inflow

Fidelity’s spot Ether ETF led the pack with $115.5 million worth of inflows on Nov. 11, while BlackRock, Grayscale and Bitwise’s Ether ETFs also saw inflows.

Ether is, however, playing catch up with Bitcoin, Solana and other competitors that have outperformed it this bull cycle, BTC Markets crypto analyst Rachael Lucas said in a note to Cointelegraph.

“After being a laggard for most of this cycle Ethereum is starting to catch a bid,” Lucas said, pointing to spot Ether ETFs gaining momentum after a relatively slow start.

Lucas said Ether staking returns (not accessible through United States spot Ether ETFs) will also become more appealing to traditional investors as they consider Ether’s bull case.

“[There’s] no reason to believe ETH won’t run well.”

Read the full article here.

The Block: US spot ether ETFs post record daily inflows of $295 million, bitcoin ETFs attract $1.1 billion

Monday also saw a significant increase in daily trade volume among spot ether ETFs, with a record total of $912.9 million. This exceeded last Friday’s volume of $469.1 million, as well as the typical range of $100 million to $200 million.

“The prospect of a more lenient regulatory approach has eased concerns, leading investors to bet on a more favourable environment for Ethereum and DeFi assets,” said Rachael Lucas, crypto analyst at BTC Markets. “If this sentiment continues, we could see sustained or increased inflows into Ethereum ETFs as institutional investors position themselves ahead of potential regulatory changes.”

Lucas said that the rally in DeFi tokens such as Aave, Uniswap and Lido signals a broader market confidence in the Ethereum ecosystem.

“If DeFi tokens continue to surge, it may drive further interest and inflows into Ethereum ETFs as a proxy for gaining exposure to the broader DeFi market,” Lucas added.

Read the full article here.

AFR: ‘The chase is on’: Bitcoin tipped to hit $US100,000 within weeks

AFR: “Looking at year-end price targets for Bitcoin, long-term projections suggest substantial growth if the typical market cycle repeats,” said crypto analyst at BTC Markets Rachael Lucas. “If the current cycle mirrors past ones, Bitcoin’s price could potentially reach a conservative target of $US200,000…and a high-end target of $US352,000.”

Read the full article here.

The Motley Fool: Why did the Bitcoin price just rocket to another all-time high?

What are the experts saying about the rocketing Bitcoin price?

Commenting on the soaring Bitcoin price, Caroline Bowler, CEO of BTC Markets said:

“Investor optimism has surged with the return of Donald Trump's presidency, as his pro-growth economic policies and favourable regulatory outlook help restore confidence in the financial markets, particularly in digital assets.

BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF has seen a record-breaking US$1.1 billion in single-day inflows, an unprecedented milestone for any ETF, especially one launched in January 2024. This surge underscores strong investor confidence…”

Read the full article here.

BlackRock Fund Powers US Bitcoin ETFs to a Record Daily Inflow

Caroline Bowler, chief executive officer of crypto exchange BTC Markets Pty, said there is a “significant risk of a feedback loop, where rising ETF inflows push Bitcoin prices higher, attracting more capital.”

Read the full article here.

AFR: Euphoria floods crypto with bitcoin tipped to hit $US100,000

Local digital asset exchange BTC Markets also noted a spike in volumes on Wednesday particularly in trades that were $US50,000 in value or more.

“It wasn’t just mum and dad, FOMO, retail investors coming in, these were larger trade sizes,” said BTC (Markets) chief executive Caroline Bowler.

“People that hadn’t traded on our platform since 2019 and were holding on to assets are now coming back into the market, and if that sustains, that to me is a green shoot indicator that we’re at the beginning of a bull market.”

AFR: Money piles into crypto as Trump leads polls.

Adding to the positive sentiment for digital assets was the shift in political dynamics in the US state of Ohio, where Republican Bernie Moreno was poised to unseat Democrat Sherrod Brown, one of the most vocal anti-crypto figures in Congress.

“As one of the largest critics of digital assets, Brown’s potential defeat is being seen as a win for the crypto industry, further boosting market optimism,” said BTC’s head of finance, Charlie Sherry.

Read the full article here.

Cointelegraph: DeFi tokens soar 30% as traders tip ‘friendlier’ DeFi landscape under Trump.

“Until recently, DeFi tokens have been largely labeled as ‘useless governance tokens,’ tokens which serve no value other than voting on protocol changes via governance voting rights,” explained Charlie Sherry, head of finance and cryptocurrency analyst at BTC Markets, in comments to Cointelegraph.

“However, investors and tokenholders have been buying on the bet that one day, these protocols will be able to pass value back to the token through fees earned by the protocol.”

The week ahead: economic events

Thursday, November 14th

• 10:30am Australian Employment Reports
• 11:30pm United States Producer Price Inflation

Friday, November 15th

• 9:50am Japan GDP Growth Rate
• 12:00pm China Industrial Production & Retail Sales
• 5:00pm United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate
• 11:30pm U.S. Retail Sales

Saturday, November 16th

• 1:00am United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment
• 11:30am China Inflation Rate

Tuesday, November 19th

• 11:30pm Canada Inflation Rate
• 11:30pm United States Building Permits

Wednesday, November 20th

• 9:50am Japan Balance of Trade
• 10:00am Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index
• 5:00pm United Kingdom Inflation Rate

Market reflections

Overview

Consumer confidence in Australia dips, though business outlook remains positive. Housing approvals recover in September, but some states lag. Australia's trade surplus shrinks due to a 33-month low in exports. US inflation steadies in October, but shelter and services keep pressure on prices as theFed cuts rates again but signals potential future pauses. U.S. consumer sentiment hits a seven-month high. China’s inflation hits a low, with a trade surplus surge. In Germany, economic sentiment falls as trade surplus narrows. The Bank of England cuts rates, while UK unemployment rises to 4.3%. Canada sees steady unemployment but slower economic growth.

Australia

• Consumer confidence dips while business outlook brightens.
• Housing approvals bounce back, but some states are still lagging.
• Trade surplus shrinks as exports drop to 33-month low.

Consumer confidence dips while business outlook brightens in Australia.

Australian consumer confidence slipped to 5.3% from October’s 6.2%, showing Aussies may be feeling cautious about spending as economic pressures linger. Meanwhile, business confidence bounced back, reaching a high not seen since early 2023, thanks to strength across wholesale, finance, and services sectors, despite weakness in construction. Costs are easing for businesses overall, though retail prices are still climbing, hinting at inflation sticking around for shoppers. So, while consumers may be tightening up, businesses are cautiously optimistic about the months ahead.

Housing approvals bounce back in September, but some states are still lagging.

In September, private house approvals in Australia saw a 2.2% increase, hitting 9,745 units, which matched expectations. This followed a similar jump of 2.2% in August. The rise was driven by solid growth in South Australia, Queensland, and Western Australia, where approvals climbed by 10.3%, 6.4%, and 5.9%, respectively. However, Victoria and New South Wales saw declines, with approvals dropping by 3.1% and 1.1%.

Looking at the bigger picture, total dwelling approvals across the country rose by 4.4% to 14,842 units in September, bouncing back from a 3.9% dip in August. The boost came mainly from a 4.7% jump in approvals for non-house dwellings, alongside the 2.2% growth in private house approvals. Regionally, Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia, and Victoria all saw strong increases, but New South Wales took a hit, with approvals down by 14.8%.

Overall, it looks like the housing market is on the mend, though the recovery isn’t uniform across all state, while some are seeing solid growth, others like New South Wales are struggling a bit.

Australia’s trade surplus shrinks as exports drop to 33-month low.

Australia’s trade surplus dropped to AU$4.61 billion in September, the smallest gain since March, falling short of market expectations for a surplus of AU$5.3 billion. Exports took a hit, falling by 4.3% to AU$40.83 billion, mainly due to weaker sales of mineral fuels and large declines in shipments to India, Indonesia, and Japan. Imports also dropped by 3.1% to AU$36.22 billion, reaching a nine-month low, driven mainly by a drop in fuel and lubricant purchases.

The export decline was led by non-rural goods like coal and mineral fuels, though rural exports saw a boost, particularly in meat sales. Imports of capital goods, like industrial transport equipment and machinery, saw a sharp decrease, while imports of consumer goods grew slightly. Interestingly, exports to China saw a small rise of 2.2%, contrasting with declines to other key trading partners.

This trade data points to a slowdown in both domestic and global demand for goods, suggesting that Australia’s economic growth could be under pressure. The narrowing trade surplus could have wider implications for economic policy, especially if the trend continues or inflationary pressures persist.

Global

• US inflation steadies in October, but shelter and services keep pressure on prices.
• Fed cuts rates again but hints at potential pause as data drives future moves.
• Consumer sentiment in the US soars to seven-month high.
• China's inflation hits a low, trade surplus surges with strong exports.
• Germany's economic sentiment drops amid uncertainty, trade surplus narrows.
• Bank of England cuts rates as inflation cools; UK unemployment rises to 4.3%.
• Canadian unemployment eases market fears as economic growth slows in October.

United States

US inflation steadies in October, but shelter and services keep pressure on prices

In October, US inflation stayed steady, with the core Consumer Price Index (CPI),which excludes food and energy, rising 0.3% for the third month straight. Annually, core inflation remained firm at 3.3%, aligning with expectations. Meanwhile, the broader CPI, including food and energy, rose 2.6%, matching forecasts and marking the first increase in seven months.

Shelter costs were a major factor, up 0.4% for the month, contributing over half of the total CPI increase. Transportation services also rose 0.4%, while food prices nudged up 0.2% and energy costs held steady. On an annual basis, overall inflation climbed to 2.6% from September’s 2.4%, ending a prolonged cooling trend.

The Federal Reserve closely monitors services inflation, up 4.8% year-over-year, as a gauge of underlying price pressures. October’s numbers indicate persistent inflation in shelter and transportation, suggesting underlying inflation could remain sticky for a while yet.

Fed cuts rates again but hints at potential pause as data drives future moves.

The Federal Reserve reduced the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.5%-4.75% at its November meeting, following a larger 50 basis point cut in September. This move was widely expected as the Fed continues to assess economic data and risks before making further decisions.

Chair Jerome Powell emphasised there is no pre-set path for future rate changes, signalling that each meeting’s decision will be data driven. Powell also hinted at a possible pause in December, depending on upcoming data, but did not confirm any plans either way. Addressing the impact of Donald Trump’s election victory, Powell noted it would not influence the Fed’s immediate policy stance, stating the central bank does not speculate on future government actions.

Consumer sentiment in the US soars to seven-month high.

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for the US climbed to a seven-month high, exceeding expectations. This upbeat reading does not yet reflect any responses to recent election outcomes. The expectations index hit 78.5, its peak since July 2021, driven by a 6% rise in personal finance optimism and a 9% surge in short-term business outlooks. Long-term business prospects also saw their best rating in nearly four years. Conversely, the current conditions gauge slightly dipped to 64.4 from 64.9. Meanwhile, year-ahead inflation expectations edged down to 2.6%, the lowest since December 2020, while five-year expectations ticked up to 3.1% from 3%.

China

China's inflation hits record low as trade surplus surges in October.

In October, China’s annual inflation rate fell to 0.3%, down from 0.4% in September, marking the lowest level since June. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined by 0.3% month-on-month, exceeding the expected 0.1% drop.

Simultaneously, China’s trade surplus jumped to US$95.27 billion, the highest since June, driven by a 12.7% surge in exports as manufacturers rushed to fulfil orders. Imports, however, fell by 2.3%, highlighting ongoing domestic demand weakness. For 2024 year-to-date, the trade surplus reached US$785.3 billion.

Germany

Germany's economic outlook weakens amid political uncertainty and trade challenges.

Germany’s economic sentiment dropped sharply in November, with the ZEW Indicator falling in October. Driven by political instability, including the collapse of the German government coalition, and the impact of Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections. The current economic conditions index also worsened. Despite these concerns, there is some optimism for a recovery, fuelled by hopes for potential snap elections in Germany.

In parallel, Germany’s trade surplus narrowed in September to EUR 17 billion, missing expectations and down from EUR 21.4 billion in August. Exports fell 1.7%, largely due to weaker demand from the EU, China, and the UK, though shipments to Russia and the US held up. Imports surged by 2.1%, particularly from China and Russia, pushing the trade surplus for the first nine months of 2024 to EUR 186.9 billion.

United Kingdom

Bank of England cuts rates amid cooling inflation, but UK unemployment rises.

The Bank of England reduced interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.75% in November, marking its second cut this year. The move follows a significant cooling in inflation, which fell to 1.7% in September, its lowest level in over three years. Despite inflation easing, the Bank anticipates that the Labour Party’s expansionary budget will add to peak inflation and boost GDP growth by up to 0.75%.

Meanwhile, the UK’s unemployment rate rose to 4.3% between July and September, the highest since May 2024, as jobless numbers climbed. Although employment grew by 220,000, long-term unemployment remained elevated, and fewer people held second jobs. The economic inactivity rate held steady at 21.8%.

Canada

Canada's job market steady amid slowing growth and rising inflation concerns.

Canada's unemployment rate remained stable at 6.5% in October, slightly better than the expected 6.6%. The labour market showed resilience with 14,500 more employed, although youth joblessness dropped, and participation rates slipped to their lowest since January 2021.

However, Canada's economic growth showed signs of slowing. The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dropped to 52 in October, signalling decelerated activity. While employment growth remained positive, inventory levels fell, and inflation pressures mounted as businesses faced rising costs. This combination of slower growth and increasing price pressures suggests a more cautious economic outlook for the near future.

Regulation round-up

SEC’s Hester Peirce warns crypto-friendly Trump administration may face slow regulatory shift.

In a recent podcast appearance, SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce raised concerns that the agency isn’t prepared for a pro-crypto shift under the Trump administration. Trump, who’s just won the 2024 election, has promised clear crypto regulations and even floated the idea of a crypto advisory council to help shape new rules within his first 100 days. He’s also made bold claims about replacing SEC Chair Gary Gensler, who’s been tough on the crypto industry. While Trump might not have the direct power to fire Gensler, there’s a good chance Gensler would step down, opening the door for a more crypto-friendly SEC head.

Peirce, appointed by Trump back in 2018, pointed out that even if the next administration is open to clearer rules, the SEC might not have a solid plan ready. She’s urging people inside and outside the agency to start thinking about good regulatory ideas now, rather than waiting until it’s crunch time. The SEC’s rulemaking process can be slow, often taking years, so there’s a lot of catching up to do if new rules are to be put in place quickly.

One possible workaround could involve an interim SEC Chair (possibly Peirce herself) starting the process early by issuing a "concept release," which would let the public weigh in before any official rule is drafted. This could give Trump’s team and the industry a head start before a permanent chair takes over.

Peirce also voiced her frustration with the SEC’s recent actions against NFT projects, arguing that digital membership NFTs shouldn’t be treated as securities. She encouraged NFT issuers to seek "no action letters" from the SEC, which could help clarify the regulatory landscape without dragging creators into court.

Overall, while Trump’s victory might lead to a friendlier environment for crypto, Peirce thinks the SEC needs to do some serious homework to be ready for the shift.

Scam awareness

Meta slammed for failing to protect Aussies from scam ads as losses hit $95 million.

The 2024 CHOICE Shonky Awards have named Meta as one of the “worst of the worst” for failing to protect Australians from online scams. Despite reports highlighting the issue, scam ads on Facebook continue to proliferate, leading to significant losses for consumers, which reached $95 million. These fraudulent ads, often promoting bogus investment opportunities or fake products, have raised widespread concern.

To protect yourself from falling victim to these scam ads on Facebook, consider the following steps:

• Research the advertiser: Before engaging with an ad, research the company or individual behind it. Look for reviews and verify their legitimacy through trusted sources.
• Be cautious of too-good-to-be-true offers: If an ad promises huge returns or deals that seem too good to be true, it's likely a scam.
• Avoid sharing personal information: Don’t provide sensitive details like your credit card or banking information unless you’re certain the ad is legitimate.
• Report suspicious ads: If you see a suspicious ad, report it to Facebook immediately to help prevent others from falling victim to scams.
• Use Facebook's security features: Enable two-factor authentication on your account to add an extra layer of protection against potential fraud.

By staying vigilant and informed, you can protect yourself from the growing threat of scam ads on Facebook.

ASICs provides a checklist of common scams and ways to avoid them. To learn more, visit ASIC’s website.

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