Weekly Crypto Wrap: 18th April 2024

TLDR

• What is the potential price impact of the Bitcoin Halving?
• Bitcoin price slips amidst strengthening U.S. dollar.
• Hong Kong approves applications for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs with launch date pending.
• Has the hype died down for Bitcoin ETFs or are 'zero flows' normal in ETF trading?
• RBA rate cut potential before U.S. Fed as economic concerns loom.
• U.S. Building permits decline amid housing market challenges.

BTC Markets announcements

Mobile app update: Fiat and crypto withdrawals are now available.

Our latest mobile app release introduces a convenient and secure fiat and crypto withdrawals feature, empowering users to effortlessly withdraw balances and track transfer statuses via a comprehensive history list.

This feature is now available in our latest release. Update your mobile app version or download the mobile app now from the App Store (iOS) and Google Play Store (Android).

Read about this exciting mobile app update here. 

Ticker News ‘Crypto Corner’: BTC Markets CEO Caroline Bowler talks RWA with Lisa Wade from DigitalX.

In the latest episode of 'Crypto Corner' on Ticker News, BTC Markets CEO, Caroline Bowler and Mike Loader engage in an in-depth discussion with Lisa Wade, CEO of DigitalX.

Join us as we explore real-world asset tokenisation(RWA). Step into the future as we investigate the transformative power of fractionalised assets spanning various classes like cash, properties, commodities, venture capital, private debts, and bonds.

Tune in to our YouTube channel or Ticker News to watch the latest episode.

Money 20/20 Asia: BTC Markets CEO, Caroline Bowler joins Standard Chartered on stage.

Join industry leaders at Money 20/20 Asia in Bangkok as they explore critical topics shaping the digital asset landscape. This coming Tuesday, 23 April, our CEO Caroline Bowler joins moderator René Michau, Global Head of Digital Assets for Standard Chartered, alongside fellow panellist Dina Mainville, President of Collisionless, to discuss ‘When the Earth and Moon Collide: Risk Lessons from DeFi’.

Then, on Thursday, 25 April, Caroline will join a panel discussion on the ‘Pros and Cons of Tokenisation’. Don't miss this opportunity to engage in thought-provoking discussions. Secure your pass today and save $250 with code SUPERSTAR250. Join us at #M2020ASIA.

OTC Desk: Unlocking global liquidity, tighter spreads, and T+0 settlements.

At BTC Markets, our OTC desk is your dedicated partner in achieving a variety of financial objectives. We specialise in helping clients reposition their SMSF holdings, assisting them through the complexities of EOFY, and facilitating the release of additional capital during the tax season. Our commitment to personalised service means that we work closely with businesses engaged in crypto payments, ensuring they optimise the value of their frequent conversions to AUD.

Whether you're a seasoned trader looking for a discreet and highly efficient means to execute substantial positions, or a business seeking a streamlined solution to manage your crypto portfolio, our OTC team is here to empower you. With access to global liquidity, tighter spreads, and T+0 settlements, we offer a comprehensive range of services tailored to meet your unique needs.

Schedule a call with our team of expert traders today.

BTC Markets in the news

Livewire Markets: The Bitcoin Halving – what does it mean for you?

As the Bitcoin Halving draws near, the surge in institutional inflows following the approval of multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US, underscores the pivotal nature of this cycle.

What impact does this hold for investment strategies and the trajectory of the crypto market?

Gain valuable insights from our CEO, Caroline Bowler, as she explores this significant topic in her latest Livewire article, focusing on the imminent Halving event.

Read the full article here.

The Bitcoin Halving

What is the potential price impact of the Bitcoin Halving?

For those that are new to crypto, the Bitcoin Halving refers to a scheduled reduction in the rate at which new Bitcoins are created. This event historically has led to significant price rallies for Bitcoin. The next halving is expected to occur around April 20th, and some traders speculate that this event could trigger another surge in Bitcoin's price.

Analysts are divided in their predictions for Bitcoin's post-halving performance. Some, like Bitfinex analysts, anticipate a substantial increase in price, possibly exceeding US$150,000, based on historical trends and the perceived scarcity of Bitcoin. However, sceptics, such as David Mercer of LMAX Group, caution against assuming a repeat of previous halving-driven bull runs. They argue that factors like the recent surge in Bitcoin's price, fuelled by the introduction of U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and institutional investment, may have already priced in the halving's effects.

Furthermore, some analysts point out that historical precedent may not be sufficient to predict Bitcoin's future movements, as other factors like monetary policy and investor behaviour also influence its price. Nevertheless, proponents of a bullish outlook highlight ongoing factors such as expected interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve and continued inflows of institutional money through ETFs, suggesting a supportive environment for Bitcoin's price growth.

While the Bitcoin halving historically has been associated with price rallies, the current market environment, and various factors beyond the halving itself make it difficult to accurately forecast Bitcoin's future performance.

Source: BTC Markets Bitcoin Halving

Our ‘Guess the Bitcoin Halving Date’ competition is now closed.

Thank you to everyone who participated in our recent X (Twitter) competition, the 'Guess the Bitcoin Halving' contest. As the highly anticipated Bitcoin Halving event approaches on April 20, the competition is now closed. We have received a fantastic response from our community, and we thank each of you for your comments.

Please note that the competition winners will be announced after the official Bitcoin Halving event on our X/Twitter account and the Terms and Conditions page of our website. Stay tuned for the winners to be announced next week. Good luck everyone.

The Bitcoin Halving countdown

Updated as of 10:30am AEST 18/04/2024.

Source: coinmarketcap.com

State of crypto

• What is the potential price impact of the Bitcoin Halving?
• Bitcoin price slips amidst strengthening U.S. dollar.
• Geopolitical developments influence market sentiment over the weekend.
• Hong Kong approves applications for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs with launch date pending.
• Has the hype died down for Bitcoin ETFs or are 'zero flows' normal in ETF trading?

Bitcoin price slips amidst strengthening U.S. dollar.

Bitcoin's price has declined alongside the recent strengthening of the U.S. dollar, poised for its "best 5-day run" since February 2023, driven by expectations of sustained higher interest rates in the U.S. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (BBDXY) surged approximately 2% over the last five trading days, while Bitcoin saw a 9% decrease in price to US$63,936, reflecting their historical inverse relationship. The approaching Bitcoin Halving on April 20th and a decline in the Crypto Fear and Greed Index contribute to market volatility and uncertainty.

Geopolitical developments influence market sentiment over the weekend.

After dipping to a low of US$60,060 during Saturday’s trading session, Bitcoin quickly rallied above US$65,000, as Ethereum joined the resurgence, climbing back above US$3,000 on Sunday. As geopolitical tensions eased, prompting a surge in the US dollar and gold as traditional safe havens. Bitcoin, however, experienced selling pressure, diverging from its usual narrative as a haven asset. This highlights the nuanced reactions within the markets during periods of geopolitical uncertainty, underscoring the importance of understanding the complex dynamics at play when assessing investment opportunities across traditional and digital asset classes.

Hong Kong approves applications for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF’s with launch date pending.

Hong Kong's approval of spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) ETF applications marks another significant milestone in the crypto sector, with analysts anticipating another rally in the market. The approval allows investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin and Ethereum price movements without directly owning the underlying assets, potentially attracting more traditional investors to the crypto market. This move underscores Hong Kong's efforts to establish itself as a regulated crypto hub amid increasing institutional interest in cryptocurrencies.

Source: X @EricBalchunas Senior ETF Analyst for Bloomberg.

Has the hype died down for Bitcoin ETFs or are 'zero flows' normal in ETF trading?

The recent slowdown in inflows to spot Bitcoin ETFs following an initial surge in buying activity, has some market participants concerned that the price rally is over. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart explains that days with zero inflows in Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are commonplace and not indicative of product failure. Across all United States ETFs, it's typical for the majority to report zero inflows on any given day.

Seyffart clarifies that new inflows or outflows are only recorded when there's a significant disparity between supply and demand, justifying the creation or redemption of new fund shares. This process, involving creation units of varying sizes, is standard across ETFs. Recent net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs coincide with subdued market performance and geopolitical tensions, highlighting the complexities influencing cryptocurrency markets beyond ETF flows.

BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) stands out as the only ETF with consistent positive flows, while others experience varying levels of stagnation or outflows. Despite the current lull, there is optimism for potential resurgence in inflows driven by institutional interest.

Source: TheBlock.co

On chain data shows Bitcoin price recovery lacks whale participation.

Despite Bitcoin's recovery from the weekend lows large holders or "whales" owning significant amounts of BTC have not resumed accumulation, according to IntoTheBlock. While approximately 3,000 BTC (US$198 million) have been added by these large holders recently, it pales in comparison to the net inflow of nearly 80,000 BTC (US$5.3 billion) seen after a dip below US$61,000 on March 20th. 

This lack of aggressive buying from whales suggests a cautious sentiment, possibly anticipating a further price decline. IntoTheBlock's "large holder netflow" indicator, sensitive to wallets linked to U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), underscores the importance of monitoring ETF flows for insights into market sentiment and the sustainability of current trends.

The weekly crypto close on Tradingview* 

Crypto market continues to slide, as all majors close in the red on the weekly close.

Despite market turbulence, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) sustained single-digit losses. BTC closed the week down 4.91%, while ETH mirrored with an 8.57% decline.

In contrast, other major cryptocurrencies faced double-digit losses: Litecoin (LTC) dropped by 21.11%, Chainlink (Link) by 21.15%, and Avalanche (AVAX) notably declined by 24.31% by week's end.

The total crypto market capitalisation lost 7.58% on the week, closing at a valuation of US$2.323 trillion.

*The weekly trading stats as of Monday, April 15th at 10:00 am AEST, based on data from Tradingviewin USD.

Year-to-date in the crypto space from TradingView*

The year-to-date performance summary for selected cryptocurrencies is as follows:

• Bitcoin (BTC) leads with an impressive gain of 44.16%, maintaining its status as a store of value.
• Ethereum (ETH) follows closely behind with a solid increase of 29.88%.
• Solana (SOL) shows resilient performance with a gain of 27.95%.
• Litecoin (LTC) holding onto a gain of8.22%, indicating renewed investor interest.

*Year-to-date performance as of Thursday, April 18th at 10:30 pm AEST approximately. Based on data fromTradingview in USD.

Crypto Fear& Greed Index

Source: alternative.me

Crypto news

Hong Kong green lights Bitcoin & Ethereum ETFs.

The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) has approved spot Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) applications from China Asset Management, Bosera Capital, and HashKey Capital Limited.

Bloomberg reported the imminent approval of spot ETFs in Hong Kong, with listing details being finalised alongside Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing (HKEX). This development is expected to position Hong Kong as a leading digital asset hub in Asia. Unlike the US, which approved Bitcoin but not Ethereum ETFs, Hong Kong approved both simultaneously. Expectations for Ether ETF approval in the US remain uncertain, with JPMorgan analysts estimating a 50% chance by May.

Trade ETH/AUD on BTC Markets.

Adidas releases US$2,500 Solana NFT sneakers in Stepn.

Adidas has partnered with move-to-earn game Stepn to release virtual running sneakers as Solana NFTs. The collaboration, called the Stepn x Adidas Genesis Sneakers collection, is the first of many joint efforts between the two companies. This partnership aims to blend virtual and physical experiences, with plans for more NFT drops and physical items throughout the year. Stepn CEO Shiti Manghani emphasised the significance of combining real-world movement with virtual rewards, highlighting the evolving landscape of lifestyle rewards.

The sneakers, priced at 10,000 GMT (Stepn’s native token), valued at approximately US$2,500, will be available on FSL’s NFT marketplace MOOAR. The first 200 Genesis Sneaker NFTs will be released on April 17, with specific requirements outlined on Stepn’s official X (Twitter) account. An additional 790 NFTs will be distributed via a public raffle sale from April 18-21st, with winners drawn every 24 hours. The remaining 10 NFTs will be used for marketing purposes.

Buy SOL/AUD on BTC Markets.

FDUSD lands on Sui and SuiPlay0x1 gaming console to be launched.

First Digital Trust, a stablecoin issuer based in Hong Kong, has announced the expansion of its US$3 billion dollar-pegged FDUSD token to the Sui blockchain after being available on Ethereum (ETH) and BNB Chain (BNB). Recently, Sui has experienced significant growth in DeFi activity, with its total value locked (TVL) reaching around US$700 million from US$100 million six months ago. FDUSD's integration into Sui makes it the first major stablecoin natively issued on the network, eliminating the need for users to rely on bridges to transfer tokens from other blockchains. This integration is expected to enhance liquidity, expand the network's utility, and create new opportunities for developers and users within the Sui community.

Mysten Labs and Playtron are teaming up to launch the SuiPlay0x1, a portable gaming PC similar to Steam Deck, tailored for crypto games. Set for a 2025 release, although detailed specifications of the device are not yet available, Playtron's CEO, Kirt McMaster, mentioned the utilisation of "desktop-grade silicon," including AMD and Qualcomm Snapdragon processors. The SuiPlay0x1 will integrate with the Sui network, allowing users to link assets to their device account and bridge assets from other blockchain networks. Moreover, it will not only support PC games from platforms like Steam and the Epic Games Store but also include support for crypto games that are not on Sui.

Trade SUI/AUD on BTC Markets.

The week ahead: economic events

April 17th: United Kingdom Inflation Rate.

April 19th: Japan Inflation Rate. United Kingdom Retail Sales MoM.

April 23rd: Germany Manufacturing PMI.

April 24th: Australia Inflation Rate. Germany Ifo Business Climate Index. United States Durable Goods Orders.

Source: Economic Calendar

Market reflections

Overview

After recent comments from U.S. Fed Chair Powell, the Australian dollar depreciated, amidst speculation of a potential rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia ahead of the U.S. Fed's decision. The IMF underscored structural challenges in Australia's economy, recommending fiscal discipline. In the U.S., March witnessed a decline in building permits, signalling housing market challenges, and February's retail sales hinted at a slowdown in consumer spending. Michigan's consumer sentiment in April indicated caution, while China's Q1 GDP growth exceeded expectations, although industrial production and retail sales weakened. Japan achieved a trade surplus in March, buoyed by increased exports.

Australia

• Australian dollar dips as Powell’s remarks drive currency movement.
• RBA rate cut potential before U.S. Fed as economic concerns loom.
• IMF’s sobering assessment regarding structural challenges.

The decline in the Australian dollar, triggered by Federal Reserve (Fed)Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks regarding prolonged higher interest rates, reflects the interconnectedness of global financial markets and the impact of central bank policies on currency movements. Powell's comments dashed market expectations for a mid-year rate cut by the Fed, leading to a reassessment of interest rate expectations and influencing currency movements globally.

The possibility of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cutting interest rates before the Fed highlights the unique economic circumstances facing Australia. Despite traditionally following the Fed's lead, Australia's economic slowdown and persistent inflation pressures have led to discussions about the RBA potentially easing monetary policy independently. The difference in mortgage structures between Australia and the US further complicates the RBA's decision-making process, underscoring the need for tailored monetary policy responses to domestic economic conditions.

Additionally, the sobering assessment by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding Australia's economic outlook emphasises the structural challenges and policy responses needed to address them. The IMF's call for fiscal restraint and continued monetary tightening reflects the seriousness of the economic headwinds facing Australia, including below-trend growth and elevated inflation.

Global

• U.S. Building permits decline amid housing market challenges.
• February U.S. retail sales analysis points to potential spending slowdown.
• Japan's trade balance surges to surplus in March as exports increase.
• ECB maintains interest rate amid economic assessments.
• U.K. inflation rate moderates to 3.2% in March.

U.S.

U.S. building permits decline in March amid housing market challenges.

In March, building permits in the U.S. declined, falling short of market expectations. This decrease was driven by a notable drop in single-family authorisations, as well as a decline in multi-segment approvals. Regionally, variations were observed, with the Northeast experiencing the most significant decline, while the West saw an increase. Overall, the decrease in building permits indicates ongoing challenges in the housing market amidst high borrowing costs.

February retail sales analysis suggests potential consumer spending slowdown.

In February, retail sales in the US increased by 0.6% month-over-month, showing a potential slowdown in consumer spending. Increases were observed in sales at building materials, motor vehicles, and electronics stores, while declines were recorded in sales at furniture and clothing stores. Excluding certain sectors, core retail sales remained flat, suggesting subdued consumer activity.

April’s Michigan Consumer Sentiment indicates cautious economic outlook.

Preliminary estimates show a dip in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for April, indicating a cautious stance toward the economy. Both current conditions and expectations decreased, while inflation expectations rose, reflecting concerns about an inflation slowdown.

March producer price inflation sees modest increase, driven by services.

In March, producer prices in the U.S. saw a modest increase of 0.2% month-over-month, primarily driven by service prices. Goods prices experienced a slight decline, with notable decreases observed in gasoline prices. On a year-on-year basis, the Producer Price Index rose by 2.1%, marking the most significant increase since April 2023.

China

Q1 2024 GDP growth beats expectations, yet industrial production and retail sales falter.

In the first quarter of 2024, China's GDP expanded by 5.3% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations and marking the highest yearly growth since Q2 2023. This growth was fuelled by ongoing stimulus measures and increased spending during the Lunar New Year. However, March data showed softer-than-expected industrial production and retail sales. Industrial production grew by 4.5% YoY, below market forecasts, indicating the weakest expansion since September. Retail sales rose by 3.1% YoY, also falling short of expectations, representing the slowest gain since July 2023. These figures suggest a need for potential policy easing to sustain economic momentum.

March CPI rises less than expected, led by decreasing food prices.

In March, China's consumer prices increased by only 0.1% YoY, below market expectations, attributed to the fading effects of the Lunar New Year festivities. Non-food inflation eased notably, while food prices saw a significant downturn, driven by decreases in pork and fresh vegetable prices. Core consumer prices rose slower than the previous month, marking the most significant monthly fall in three years, indicating a slowdown in inflationary pressures.

Trade surplus shrinks on exports, imports dip in March.

In March, China's trade surplus decreased, attributed to a larger-than-expected drop in exports and unexpected fall in imports. The trade surplus with the U.S. stood at US$22.94 billion. For the first quarter, China recorded a surplus of US$183.71 billion, with both exports and imports increasing slightly. These figures reflect ongoing challenges in global trade dynamics.

Japan

Japan's trade balance swings to surplus thanks to export surge.

In March, Japan's trade balance shifted to a surplus, a significant reversal from the previous year's deficit. This surplus, the first in three months, was driven by a combination of increased exports and decreased imports.

Japan's exports surged by 7.3% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth. Robust demand from key trading partners such as the U.S. and China contributed to this increase, resulting in the highest export volume in three months.

Imports experienced a significant decline of 4.9%. This decrease, the second in the year, was primarily due to a sharp downturn in imports of mineral fuels.

The shift from deficit to surplus signals a positive development for the Japanese economy, reflecting improved trade dynamics in the global market. This turnaround comes after Japan faced a trade shortfall in 2023, marking the third consecutive year of deficit.

Euro Area

ECB maintains interest rate amid economic assessments.

In April, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to keep its key deposit rate steady at 4%, in line with market expectations. This move underscores the ECB's monetary policy stance and its commitment to stability. The Euro Area's Deposit Interest Rate has fluctuated over the years, reaching its peak in September 2023 and its record low in September 2019, according to data from the European Central Bank.

United Kingdom

U.K. inflation rate decreased to 3.2% in March.

In March, the U.K’s inflation rate decreased to 3.2% year-on-year from the previous month's 3.4%, slightly above market expectations of 3.1%. This decline, the lowest since September 2021, was primarily due to slower food inflation and moderated price growth in sectors like restaurants, hotels, and recreation.

Housing costs continued to decline, while transport prices rebounded slightly, influenced by a softer decrease in motor fuel costs. The annual core inflation rate, excluding volatile items, dropped to 4.2%, the lowest since December 2021, slightly exceeding market forecasts of 4.1%. Additionally, consumer prices rose by 0.6% monthly in March, maintaining the same pace as February.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from December 2023 to February 2024, surpassing market expectations. This uptick was accompanied by changes in employment types and secondary job holdings, indicating a mixed picture of the labour market.

In February, the economy expanded by 0.1% month-over-month, with growth driven primarily by production and services. Despite contractions in construction and mining sectors, the steady recovery suggests positive momentum.

Germany

Optimism surges amid assessments of current economic situation.

In April, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany surged to its highest level since February 2022, reflecting optimism among analysts. While prospects are positive, challenges persist in the current economic landscape.

Canada

March uptick in inflation driven by transportation and housing costs.

Canada's annual inflation rate rose to 2.9% in March, primarily due to increases in transportation and housing-related costs. Despite moderation in sectors like food and clothing, inflation remains a key economic consideration.

Compliance conversations

Aussies lose around AU$1 billion to card theft.

In the past year, Australians have experienced significant losses due to card fraud, amounting to nearly AU$1 billion, according to recent findings by Finder.

The research, which surveyed 1,039 respondents, revealed that 1 in 10 individuals had their credit or debit cards skimmed in 2023, with each victim losing an average of AU$418. This equates to approximately 2.2 million Australians collectively losing AU$930 million nationwide.

Alarmingly, only a small fraction of those affected reported the incidents, with just 1 in 10 victims informing authorities, while 1 percent took no action at all. A further 1 percent of individuals had been victims of bank card fraud but only realised later they had been scammed.

Rebecca Pike, a money expert at Finder, highlighted that as digital transactions become more prevalent, scammers are employing increasingly sophisticated tactics. She advised people to remain vigilant about safeguarding their card details at all times, cautioning that scammers may impersonate reputable brands or individuals in need.

Pike recommended leveraging notifications offered by financial institutions to promptly identify and report any suspicious activity. Additionally, she emphasised the importance of contacting the bank immediately upon noticing unfamiliar transactions or if a card is stolen, as swift action can prevent further unauthorised use.

Finder advised protective measures such as covering debit or credit cards when entering PINs, promptly reporting lost cards to the bank, and regularly reviewing bank statements for suspicious transactions. Recipients of emails or texts from unknown contacts were urged not to click on any attached links. In case of suspicion regarding communications purportedly from a bank, Finder suggested contacting the bank directly using the details provided on its official website.

ASIC provides a checklist of common scams and ways to avoid them. To learn more, visit ASIC’s website.

Discover more on our ‘Compliance conversation’ blog page, where we share the latest updates on safeguarding against scams and protecting your assets. Stay informed and stay protected!

Want to get on our mailing list?

Sign up for free and join over 337,000 Australian traders who receive the BTC Markets Weekly Crypto Wrap.

Feedback

If you have any feedback on our newsletter or want to request specific content, please submit a support ticket and we will respond shortly.

Disclaimer: The information provided on this page is issued by BTC Markets Pty Ltd (BTC Markets, we, us, our). The information is general only and is not intended to constitute an opinion or recommendation with respect to its contents. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any reference to past performance is intended to be for general illustrative purposes only. The information cannot be relied upon for any purposes and is not intended to be a substitute for professional advice.

The information does not purport to be complete, accurate or contain all of the information that a person may require to make a decision. It may also contain forward looking statements, which are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors. We recommend you obtain professional advice before making any decision with respect to the matters discussed in this document. To the maximum extent permitted by law, BTC Markets will have no liability for any loss or liability of any kind: (i) arising in respect of the information contained (or not contained) on this page; or (ii) arising from a person relying on any information or statement contained on this page. The information provided is only intended for recipients in Australia. This information cannot be reproduced without our prior written permission.

Weekly prices are accurate as of 10:00 AM AEST on 15/04/2024.