Weekly Crypto Wrap: 4th July 2024

TLDR

• Bitcoin’s price dips below US$60k as spot ETF flows turn positive.
• BTC Markets sponsors Australian heptathlete, Tori West.
• Livewire: Let’s talk tax an overview of crypto taxation in Australia.
• Ethereum poised for growth against Bitcoin post-ETF approvals.
• 21Shares files application for spot Solana ETF.
• Key economic indicators in the US reflect moderate trends in May .

BTC Markets announcements

BTC Markets sponsors Australian heptathlete, Tori West.

Recently, we announced an exciting sponsorship of Australian heptathlete Tori West, supporting her "Path to Paris" as she aims to represent Australia in the 2024 Olympic Games.

Tori, ranked 1st in Oceania and 24th globally, competes in the heptathlon, which includes seven track and field events. Recently, she competed in Germany, seeking to solidify her dream of representing Australia at the Olympic games. We are proud to support her dedication and excellence.

Read the full announcement here and watch our interview with Tori here.

Celebrating 11 years in the crypto market.

In June, we celebrated our 11th year in crypto! To mark this incredible milestone, we gave away AU$5,000 worth of Bitcoin to 10 lucky winners on X/Twitter. Congratulations to all the winners and thank you for participating.

We also collaborated with local artist Nate Hill to create a custom digital art piece, which was unveiled at Oshi Gallery last week.

Our journey has been nothing short of extraordinary, and it’s all thanks to you, our loyal clients. Your unwavering trust and support have been the cornerstone of our success.

From our humble beginnings as a startup, we’ve grown into a powerhouse in the Australian cryptocurrency industry. We’re honoured to have you as a vital part of our journey and are excited to continue being a part of yours.

BTC Markets sponsors [DA] Top 50 Impact List 2024.

BTC Markets is proud to announce our premier sponsorship for [DA] Top 50 Impact List 2024 brought to you by Blockchain APAC.

[DA] List showcases and highlights those who hold the most significant influence over the trajectory of the digital asset industry in Australia.

BTC Markets partners with Koinly.

BTC Markets has once again partnered with Koinly to offer a comprehensive crypto tax reporting solution for clients. Managing your portfolio and staying compliant with tax regulations can be a daunting task. Keeping track of your crypto assets has never been more challenging.

Click here to read the full blog.

BTC Markets x Ticker News Crypto Corner

Greg Oakford, Upside Dao.

In this episode, we investigate the fascinating world of meme coins, the GameStop phenomenon, and the evolving landscape of NFTs. Caroline Bowler sat down with Greg Oakford from Upside Dao to discuss how crypto is on a faster adoption curve than the internet. They looked at the surge in ordinals and Solana NFTs despite short-term shifts in attention.

Watch now on YouTube or Ticker News.

Samira Tollo, Elbaite.

Empowering financial sovereignty: the Elbaite approach to custody and self-custody in crypto.

In this episode, Caroline sits down with Samira Tollo, CEO of Elbaite, for an engaging discussion about her unique background and how her experiences in Afghanistan have influenced the creation of Elbaite.

Samira shares her personal journey, shedding light on the importance of self-custody, particularly during times of economic uncertainty such as recessions and high inflation.

Watch now on YouTube or Ticker News.

Did you know…AUD card deposits are available at BTC Markets?

BTC Markets now allows users to deposit AUD directly into their accounts using Australian-issued Visa or Mastercard credit or debit cards.

This new method provides a fast, convenient, and secure way to fund accounts instantly without leaving the exchange.

Users can simply log in and enter their card details to make an instant deposit.

Benefits of AUD card deposits include:

• Instant deposits without leaving the exchange.
• Flexibility to use Visa or Mastercard credit or debit cards.
• Enhanced security for card information.

Additionally, BTC Markets continues to offer other deposit methods such as Osko (PayID) and direct deposits.

Our goal is to provide Australians with easier access to digital assets and a more convenient trading experience.

Deposit AUD today!

To learn more about AUD card deposits, please visit our Help Centre.

BTC Markets in the news

Livewire: Let’s talk tax: an overview of crypto taxation in Australia.

As we approach another EOFY, cryptocurrency investors in Australia find themselves navigating the complexities of tax obligations amidst a landscape of evolving innovation and regulation.

Check out our CEO Caroline Bowler’s latest article on Livewire here.

Greg Oakford: Upside DAO as Head of Growth and Partnerships.

Greg Oakford brings a wealth of experience to Upside DAO as Head of Growth and Partnerships, a leading Australian hub for crypto and Web3 innovation. With a strong background in sports marketing and sponsorship, Greg co-founded NFT Fest Australia and is deeply involved in NFT collecting. He contributes regularly to Cointelegraph, bridging his expertise in both traditional sports and blockchain industries. See a snippet from his latest article below:

Tyler Warner Reflects on NFT Journey: Learning from Round-Tripping 1,000 ETH

Tyler Warner, known as Tyler Did It in the NFT world, discusses his crypto journey, reflecting on handling a peak NFT portfolio worth 1,000 ETH. Warner admits to succumbing to a "rock star complex," delaying sells during market peaks, and his transition from traditional finance to full-time NFT content creation.

Read the full article here.

State of crypto

• Bitcoin’s price dips below US$60k as spot ETF flows turn positive.
• Crypto goes unmentioned at first 2024 U.S. presidential debate.
• Ethereum poised for growth against Bitcoin post-ETF approvals.
• 21Shares files application for spot Solana ETF.
• Mt. Gox to unload US$9 billion in Bitcoin, sparking market concerns.

Bitcoin’s price dips below US$60,000 as spot ETF flows return to positive territory.

Bitcoin dropped below US$60,000 for the first time since late June, resulting in the liquidation of $8.4 million in long contracts. Ethereum derivatives also faced significant losses, with US$8.8 million in long ETH contracts liquidated. Bitcoin's price fell to a daily low of US$59,962 before rebounding slightly to US$60,215.46, while Ethereum traded at US$3,308.61, down 4% over 24 hours.

The market has been on edge due to the impending repayments to Mt. Gox creditors, who are set to receive 14,000 BTC. Additionally, US inflation and federal interest rates continue to influence the crypto market. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that lowering interest rates prematurely could undermine efforts to control inflation, contributing to a risk-averse sentiment among investors.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen steady inflows for five consecutive days, with Monday's US$129.5 million marking the highest one-day inflow since June 12. Over five days, the 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulated US$270 million, as inflation appears to slow, and Bitcoin's price stabilises. The Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) led with US$65 million, followed by Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) with US$41 million. Despite some stagnation in overall flows and trading volume, total inflows remain a healthy US$14.7 billion since January.

Source: TheBlock.co

Defi tokens plunge amid weak crypto price action.

DeFi tokens, led by Pendle, experienced significant declines of 10%-20% this week amid a broader crypto market downturn. Pendle's governance token dropped 20%, driven by a US$3 billion reduction in Total Value Locked (TVL) due to diminishing airdrop farming hype and lower yields. Other DeFi tokens, including Aave (AAVE) and Lido (LDO), fell by over 10% following a large investor’s transfer of US$10 million worth of tokens to Binance.

Analysts attributed Pendle's TVL drop to users withdrawing funds instead of rolling over positions at the end of June. Despite the short-term volatility, upcoming partnerships such as Symbiotic-Ethena-Mellow are expected to attract fresh inflows.

Crypto goes unmentioned at first 2024 U.S. presidential debate.

The first debate of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, held between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, did not address cryptocurrency, despite anticipation from industry participants.

Hosted by CNN in Atlanta, Georgia, the debate covered varies topics but barely touched on technology policy. While crypto has been a significant topic among candidates, it was notably absent from this debate. Trump's campaign has previously discussed crypto issues, whereas Biden's campaign has remained silent. The crypto industry hopes for favourable legislation and continues to invest heavily in political action committees. During the debate, a Polymarket prediction market favoured Trump's chances of winning.

Ethereum poised for growth against Bitcoin post-ETF approvals: K33 Research.

K33 Research predicts Ethereum will outperform Bitcoin in the coming months as US-listed spot Ethereum ETFs launch in July, drawing new institutional demand. While Bitcoin faces potential sell pressure from the distribution of 141,686 BTC from the defunct Mt. Gox exchange, Ethereum's positive supply dynamics are expected to provide relative strength.

The ETH/BTC ratio, which had declined, rebounded following news of upcoming Ethereum ETF approvals. K33 anticipates ETFs will absorb 0.75% to 1% of ETH within five months, boosting Ethereum's market position. Ethereum futures premiums and leveraged ETH ETF interest indicate strong trader demand and potential for price gains.

Despite uncertain market outlooks and balanced directional expectations, K33 remains optimistic about Ethereum's performance relative to Bitcoin as ETF flows accumulate over the summer.

21Shares files application for spot Solana ETF.

21Shares filed an S-1 application with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on June 28 for a spot Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) named the 21Shares Core Solana ETF. This follows a similar filing by VanEck on June 27, marking the SEC’s second spot SOL ETF application. The proposed ETF will trade on the Cboe BZX Exchange, with Coinbase serving as the custodian for the fund’s Solana holdings, which will be held in segregated wallets on the Solana blockchain and insured privately.

The fund will not participate in staking SOL. 21Shares, a crypto-native financial technology company based in Zurich, Switzerland, already offers various ETFs in partnership with ARK Invest, including future Ether (ETH), spot, and future Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs in the US.

Following the news of the VanEck filing, the price of SOL saw a rapid increase from US$139 to US$150, later stabilising around US$141. The 21Shares and ARK Invest partnership previously applied for a spot ETH ETF, with the ARK 21Shares spot ETH ETF being approved by the SEC on May 23.

Mt. Gox to unload US$9 billion in Bitcoin, sparking market concerns.

In early July, bankrupt Tokyo-based bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox will begin repaying US$9 billion in BTC to thousands of users, ten years after a series of hacks led to its collapse. This significant payout has caused Bitcoin's price to dip to US$59,000, marking the second-worst weekly decline of the year.

Analysts expect substantial selling pressure as the market absorbs 141,000 bitcoins. While some predict short-term price drops, others believe the impact will be manageable due to existing market liquidity. Factors like US interest rates and economic conditions also contribute to Bitcoin's recent price volatility.

Bitcoin miners facing capitulation levels like post-FTX crash.

Bitcoin miner capitulation metrics are nearing levels seen during the market bottom following the FTX crash in late 2022, according to CryptoQuant. Daily miner revenue has plummeted from US$79 million to US$29 million since the Bitcoin halving earlier this year, causing a 7.7% slump in hashrate as inefficient miners shut down operations. This decline in revenue is due to reduced transaction fees and the halving event. CryptoQuant suggests that these signs of capitulation could indicate an imminent market bottom, with potential for Bitcoin to rebound.

The weekly crypto close on Tradingview

The crypto market rebounded strongly in the last trading week, with most majors closing in the green.

Avalanche (AVAX) and Solana (SOL) led the rebound, growing by 17.03% and 13.91% respectively.

Chainlink (LINK) saw an increase of 8.18%, followed by Cardano (ADA) with a rise of 3.16%.

Litecoin (LTC) increased by 2.60%, while Ethereum (ETH) showed a more modest increase of 0.44%.

Overall, the total crypto market capitalisation saw a slight increase of 0.18% for the week, closing at a valuation of US$2.255 trillion.

The weekly trading stats as of Monday, July 1st at 10:00 am AEST, based on data from Tradingview in USD.

Year-to-date in the crypto space from TradingView

The year-to-date performance summary for selected cryptocurrencies is as follows:

• Ethereum (ETH) leads the pack with an impressive gain of 48.14%.
• Bitcoin (BTC) follows closely with a 43.85% increase.
• Solana (SOL) not far behind, holding onto a 34.33% gain.

Year-to-date performance as of Thursday, July 4th at 11:00 am AEST approximately. Based on data from Tradingview in USD.

Crypto Fear& Greed Index

Source: alternative.me

The week ahead: economic events

July 5th: Canada Unemployment Rate. United States Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate.

July 6th: Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index.

July 8th: Germany Balance of Trade.

July 10th: United States Fed Funds Interest Rate. China Inflation Rate.

July 11th: Australia Consumer Confidence MoM and Australia Business Confidence.

Source: trading economics

Market reflections

Overview

The Australian economy shows mixed signals with industry contraction, slowed service growth, and varied manufacturing performance, while housing and retail markets grow strongly. US indicators in May 2024 reflect moderate trends, with growth in key areas but challenges in manufacturing. China's PMI held steady amid recovery challenges. Japan's manufacturing optimism surged, and the Euro Area saw easing inflation.

Australia

• Mixed signals for the Australian economy amid sectoral variations.
• Industry and service sectors struggle with slow growth and export declines.
• Manufacturing shows mixed performance with chemicals recovering and minerals declining.
• Consumer inflation expectations rise, but housing credit growth remains steady.

The Australian economy is exhibiting mixed signals with the industry sector remains in contraction despite slight improvements, service sector growth slows, and manufacturing saw a varied performance. Housing and retail markets show strong growth, while inflation expectations rise amid cost pressures. Overall, credit growth remains stable, indicating cautious optimism for economic activity.

Australian industry index continues to struggle despite some improvements.

The Ai Group Australian Industry Index continued to contract in June, despite some improvements. The index rose, marking the twenty-sixth consecutive month of contraction. Indicators for activity/sales, new orders, and employment rebounded from a weak May but remained negative. Rising input costs and wage pressures continue to challenge the sector.

Service sector growth slows to five-month low amid export decline.

The Judo Bank Australia Services PMI showed the slowest growth in five months in May. New business growth was marginal due to softer market conditions, with domestic demand driving sales and export business declining. Employment and unfinished business levels improved, while input costs rose but inflation eased to a 33-month low.

The manufacturing sector faces mixed performance as chemicals recover, minerals decline.

In June, the Ai Group Industry Index for Australian manufacturing rose but remained in contraction. Manufacturers faced lower orders, input price hikes, and competition for skilled staff. Chemicals recovered with rising demand and overseas orders, while the minerals and metals sector declined to its lowest since 2020.

Composite output growth slows, reflecting mixed business sentiment.

In June, the Judo Bank Australia Composite Output Index expansion slowed for the fifth month. Service sector growth couldn't offset a sharper decline in goods, with new and export orders falling. Employment growth slowed, especially in manufacturing. Price pressures eased, but business confidence fell to its lowest since November 2023.

Consumer inflation expectations rise amid persistent cost pressures.

In June, consumer inflation expectations rose to 4.4%, up from 4.1% in May, driven by sustained pressures on service costs. Headline inflation stood at 3.6% in Q1 2024, the lowest rate in nine quarters, while the monthly CPI index rose to 4.0% year-on-year in May, the highest since late 2023.

Housing credit shows steady growth, reflecting strong market activity.

In May, Australia's housing credit saw moderate growth, reflecting ongoing market activity. Private sector credit rose slightly, driven by housing credit and business loans, despite a decline in personal credit. Annual private sector credit grew by 5.2%, the highest in eight months, indicating resilience in credit demand across sectors.

Global

• Key economic indicators in the US reflect moderate trends in May 2024.
• US GDP growth rate shows sluggish expansion in Q1 2024.
• US job market surges, economic optimism rebounds despite lingering concerns.
• China’s manufacturing PMI remains steady.
• Bank of Japan’s tankan index shows strongest manufacturer sentiment in two years.
• Annual inflation rate in the Euro Area eases to 2.5% in June.
• Canada posts trade deficit in May, breaking historical trends.

United States

Key economic indicators in the US reflect moderate trends in May 2024.

The core PCE price index, closely watched by the Federal Reserve, increased by 0.1% month-over-month in May, the slowest rise since November 2023. Personal income rose by 0.5%, driven by a 0.6% increase in employee compensation. Personal spending saw a modest 0.2% rise, with significant contributions from healthcare, housing, and transportation services. Adjusted for inflation, real consumption expenditure rose by 0.3%, indicating slight growth in real purchasing power. These indicators suggest moderate inflation pressures, solid income growth, and steady consumer spending.

Durable goods orders show modest growth in May.

New orders for manufactured durable goods in the US increased month-over-month in May, marking the fourth consecutive month of gains, surpassing market expectations. Key drivers included a 1.3% rise in computers and related products and a 22.6% surge in transportation equipment, particularly defence aircraft and parts. However, declines were observed in communications equipment, capital goods, machinery, and electrical equipment. Non-defence capital goods excluding aircraft, a gauge of business investment intentions, fell by 0.6%, indicating cautious business investment amid broader economic uncertainties.

US GDP growth rate shows sluggish expansion in Q1 2024.

The US economy expanded at an annualised rate of 1.4% in Q1 2024, slightly revised upwards from 1.3%. This reflects a continued sluggish pace relative to earlier quarters. Positive revisions were noted in non-residential investment, particularly in structures, equipment, and intellectual property products. Consumer spending moderated more than anticipated, growing at 1.5% compared to the earlier estimate of 2%. This slowdown in both goods and services consumption highlights potential headwinds to broader economic recovery.

ISM Manufacturing PMI reflects challenges in the manufacturing sector.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US fell in June, marking the third consecutive month of decline and the lowest level since February. Contractions in production and employment, along with faster decreases in inventories and backlog of orders, contributed to the decline. The manufacturing employment index also decreased, pointing to a contraction in sector employment. However, the new orders subindex showed improvement, and price pressures reduced to the lowest since December. This indicates a challenging environment for the manufacturing sector, with ongoing headwinds in activity and employment.

US job market surges, economic optimism rebounds despite lingering concerns.

In May, the US labour market saw significant job openings growth, indicating strong demand, while the steady job quits rate showed worker confidence. Despite a rise in the Economic Optimism Index, overall sentiment remains negative. Sector-specific challenges persist, but growing consumer confidence suggests broader economic improvement.

Crude oil inventories see largest weekly draw since August 2023.

US crude oil inventories experienced a significant decline, marking the largest weekly draw since August 2023 and far exceeding market expectations of a 0.15-million-barrel drop. This substantial draw indicates strong demand or supply constraints, potentially impacting energy prices and broader economic conditions.

China

China’s manufacturing PMI remains steady.

In June, China's official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) held steady for the second consecutive month, aligning with market expectations. This marks the fourth instance of contraction in factory activity this year, reflecting ongoing challenges in stimulating a robust economic recovery amidst subdued demand, deflationary risks, and persistent weaknesses in the property sector.

Japan

Bank of Japan’s tankan index shows strongest manufacturer sentiment in two years.

In the second quarter of 2024, Japan's Tankan index for large manufacturers surged, marking a significant increase from the previous quarters and surpassing expectations. This rise indicates growing optimism amidst a brighter economic outlook. Looking ahead, firms anticipate further improvement with a projected index for the third quarter.

Euro Area

Annual inflation rate in the Euro Area eases to 2.5% in June.

The Euro Area's annual inflation rate eased to 2.5% in June, down from 2.6% in May, matching market forecasts. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-over-month, consistent with May's increase. Core inflation remained unchanged at 2.9%, above the forecasted 2.8%. This indicates potential stabilisation in overall inflation, but persistent core inflation suggests underlying pressures.

inflation trends among the largest economies in the Euro Area showed considerable variations. In June, Germany's annual inflation rate declined due to reduced energy costs, with a monthly CPI rise of 0.1% and the EU-harmonised CPI falling to 2.5%. France's CPI increased by 0.1% month-over-month, maintaining stability, while the annual rate decreased to 2.5%. Italy's annual inflation rate held steady at 0.8%, with the EU-harmonised rate slightly up to 0.9%. Spain's inflation decreased to 3.5%, Ireland's dropped to 1.5%, and the Netherlands saw a sharp rise to 3.4%. These varied trends reflect differing economic conditions and pressures across the region.

Canada posts trade deficit in May, breaking historical trends.

Canada posted a trade deficit in May 2024, breaking its historical trend of usually having a trade surplus from 1971 to 2024. This significant deficit highlights fluctuations in Canada's trade balance over time.

Crypto news

Vitalik Buterin proposes single-slot finality system to accelerate Ethereum transactions.

Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, has proposed a single-slot finality (SSF) system to speed up transactions on the Ethereum network, reducing layer-1 (L1) confirmations from a few seconds to milliseconds. This shift aims to improve upon the current 5–20 second confirmations achieved after the 2022 Ethereum Merge, which transitioned Ethereum from a proof-of-work to a proof-of-stake consensus mechanism.

SSF, inspired by the Tendermint consensus, would replace the current epoch-and-slot mechanism, potentially cutting confirmation times but increasing network congestion due to frequent validator messages. While recent proposals like Orbit SSF offer potential solutions, Ethereum continues to explore options aimed at improving user experience and streamlining development, particularly focusing on solutions for both layer-1 and layer-2 aspects of the network.

Trade ETH/AUD on BTC Markets.

21Shares files application for spot Solana ETF with SEC.

On June 28, 2024, 21Shares submitted an S-1 application to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a spot Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF) named the 21Shares Core Solana ETF, shortly after VanEck's filing the previous day.

This ETF, slated for listing on the Cboe BZX Exchange, will securely hold SOL assets with Coinbase as custodian, ensuring private insurance and segregation on the Solana blockchain. Notably, the fund will not engage in SOL staking activities. Share values will be recalculated every 15 seconds during trading hours, and the daily SOL value will be determined at 4:00 pm ET.

Based in Zurich, Switzerland, 21Shares is a prominent player in the crypto ETF sector, offering products like future ETH and spot and future Bitcoin ETFs in collaboration with ARK Invest in the United States. The announcement coincided with SOL's price surge to US$150 following news of the ETF filings, settling around US$141 by midday.

Buy SOL/AUD on BTC Markets.

Sui partners with Copper to expand custody for institutional finance.

Sui Network has partnered with Copper, a digital assets financial services provider, to expand its custody capabilities and attract institutional finance. This collaboration aims to bolster infrastructure options for Sui, a layer-1 blockchain and smart contracts platform launched in March 2022 by Mysten Labs. With Copper's custody support already available for Sui-native tokens like the Ondo USD Yield (USDY), Sui plans to enhance its appeal to institutional investors by introducing new custody features for staking and decentralised finance activities.

In April, Sui partnered with BytePlus to bolster scalability and data processing capabilities. Additionally, Sui hosts FDUSD, an unwrapped stablecoin by First Digital Group, with its token (SUI) managed by custodians like BitGo, Anchorage, and Coinbase Prime. Copper, based in the UK, utilises ClearLoop technology for trade settlement and collateral management, expanding its presence in traditional finance with backing from investor Alan Howard.

Trade SUI/AUD on BTC Markets.

Regulation roundup

ATO targets crypto tax evasion with enhanced data program.

The Australian Tax Office (ATO) is intensifying its scrutiny of crypto gains before the end of June as taxpayers begin submitting their tax returns. The ATO has enhanced its data matching program to collect information from 2014 to 2026 from all legally operating crypto exchanges in Australia, including major platforms like Binance, Coinbase, and CoinSpot.

This program aims to gather extensive data on about 1.2 million crypto investors annually, including personal details like names, addresses, emails, social media accounts, and IP addresses. While most Australian crypto investors are aware of their tax obligations, the ATO's program is expected to catch those who fail to comply, potentially resulting in reminder letters to properly report their crypto transactions.

The ATO's guidance on BTC and ETH repayments from the bankrupt crypto lender Celsius is unclear, causing confusion about tax implications. Consulting an experienced accountant is advised to determine the tax liability.

Compliance conversations

Unmasking the most common crypto scams.

The rise of cryptocurrencies has brought about revolutionary opportunities and possibilities. However, with every technological advancement comes a flip side – an increased risk of scams and fraudulent activities.

Scammers are becoming more cunning and sophisticated in their tactics. Let’s look at the most common crypto scams.

Read the full blog here.

The ASIC provides a checklist of common scams and ways to avoid them. To learn more, visit ASIC’s website.

Discover more on our ‘Compliance conversation’ blog page, where we share the latest updates on safeguarding against scams and protecting your assets. Stay informed and stay protected!

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Weekly prices are accurate as of 10:00 AM AEST on 01/07/2024.