Bitcoin breaks US$70,000 (A$98,000) again

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Introduction

It has been a week that reminded crypto investors why this market rarely sits still for long. Bitcoin pushed back above US$70,000 (A$98,000), institutional money continued flowing in at a pace not seen in months, and a geopolitical development half a world away ended up being one of the most consequential catalysts for crypto markets. Underneath the price action, the structural story grew stronger. Supply is tightening, institutional rails are expanding, and the infrastructure being built around digital assets keeps compounding. Here is what happened and why it matters.

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State of crypto

• Bitcoin reclaimed US$70,000 (A$98,000), driven by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, a short squeeze, and strengthening ETF inflows
• US spot Bitcoin ETFs have now absorbed 1.28 million BTC, making them Bitcoin's largest collective holder at 6.3% of circulating supply
• Bitcoin crossed 20 million coins mined, leaving fewer than 1 million BTC to be issued over the next 114 years
• Strategy purchased 17,994 BTC for US$1.28B (A$1.8B), bringing its total holdings to 738,731 BTC, roughly 3.5% of total supply
• Ethereum’s network activity hit record highs with nearly 2 million daily active addresses, even as ETH’s price remains 60% below its peak
• Mastercard launched a global crypto partner program with 85 firms, and Ripple secured an Australian financial services licence ahead of an April launch

Bitcoin reclaims US$70,000 (A$98,000) as sentiment shifts

Bitcoin's return above US$70,000 (A$98,000) was not driven by a single factor, which is what makes this move more credible than some previous rallies. US President Donald Trump's suggestion that the Iran conflict could resolve quickly triggered a broad shift in sentiment across risk assets. Oil retreated sharply from US$118 (A$165) to US$85 (A$119), easing the inflation concerns that had been weighing on markets since the conflict escalated. That macro tailwind arrived at the same time as a technical reset in Bitcoin's derivatives market.

Negative funding rates from the February selloff had created conditions for a significant short squeeze. When Bitcoin found its footing and started moving higher, leveraged short positions were forced to close, accelerating the upside move. Daily trading volumes exceeded US$70 billion (A$98 billion) on peak days, and the price pushed from lows around US$62,900 (A$88,000) in late February back toward US$70,000 (A$98,000) to US$73,000 (A$102,000) by the end of the week.

Regulatory sentiment added further support. Speculation around the US Clarity Act, which would provide a formal legal framework for stablecoins, lifted confidence across the broader crypto ecosystem. Bitcoin tends to benefit as the market's benchmark asset when the overall environment improves.

The combination of macro relief, a technical squeeze, and improving regulatory outlook gave this rally more than one leg to stand on, which historically tends to produce more durable moves than sentiment alone.

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ETF inflows hit their strongest month since October 2025

The institutional bid for Bitcoin has returned with conviction. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded almost US$1 billion (A$1.4 billion) in net inflows for March as of the 10th, making it the strongest monthly performance since October 2025. This follows two consecutive weeks of positive flows after a five-month outflow streak that had seen US$3.8 billion (A$5.3 billion) withdrawn from the market.

BlackRock's IBIT has been the standout performer, contributing US$955 million (A$1.34 billion) in March. The consistency of BlackRock's inflows is significant because IBIT is the product most institutional allocators are using as their primary Bitcoin exposure vehicle.

ETFs now collectively hold 1.28 million BTC, representing 6.3% of circulating supply, which makes them Bitcoin's largest single holder category. That figure will keep growing if inflows continue, and the supply implications are meaningful. Every Bitcoin absorbed by an ETF is one less coin available on the open market, tightening the float at a time when exchange reserves are already sitting at all-time lows of 2.7 million BTC, down from 3.2 million in 2023.

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Bitcoin crosses 20 million coins mined

Bitcoin reached a supply milestone this week that brings its scarcity into focus. At block height 939,999, mined by Foundry USA, the 20 millionth Bitcoin entered circulation, representing 95.24% of the total 21 million cap after 17 years of continuous mining.

Fewer than 1 million coins remain to be issued, and those will take approximately 114 years to mine due to the halving schedule that progressively reduces block rewards. The next halving arrives in April 2028, cutting the reward from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC per block. After that, the pace of new supply entering the market slows further, and by 2140, miners will rely entirely on transaction fees.

The scarcity story deepens further when lost coins are considered. Analysts estimate between 2.3 million and 3.7 million BTC are permanently inaccessible, meaning the effective liquid supply could be as low as 15.8 million coins. Against a backdrop of institutional demand accelerating through ETFs and corporate treasury programs, the supply math becomes increasingly compelling.

Strategy reinforced this dynamic by purchasing 17,994 BTC for US$1.28 billion (A$1.8 billion) during the week, its largest weekly acquisition since January. The company now holds 738,731 BTC at an aggregate cost of US$56 billion (A$78.4 billion), controlling roughly 3.5% of total supply. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor marked the milestone, noting the company has now completed over 100 Bitcoin purchase transactions since 2020.

Ethereum's activity record tells two stories

Ethereum delivered a striking data point this week that deserves more attention than it received. Daily active addresses approached 2 million in February 2026, surpassing records set during the 2021 bull market. Smart contract calls exceeded 40 million per day, token transfers hit unprecedented levels, and the network now has over 182 million non-empty wallets, more than three times Bitcoin's 58 million.

And yet, ETH is down 30% over six months and trading 60% below its peak. That kind of divergence between network fundamentals and market price is unusual and worth understanding.

CryptoQuant attributes the disconnect to negative realised capitalisation changes, meaning more capital is leaving the Ethereum ecosystem than entering it, even as usage grows. The practical interpretation is that while people are using Ethereum extensively, the market has not yet translated that activity into price support. Layer 2 networks have absorbed significant transaction volume and value that previously would have settled on the main chain, changing how value accrues to ETH itself.

The Ethereum Foundation added a constructive development this week, initiating a staking program for up to 72,000 ETH worth approximately US$140 million (A$196 million).. Using distributed validator technology developed by Bitwise, the foundation is generating staking rewards while contributing to network security. With over 37.6 million ETH already staked, representing 30.2% of circulating supply, the network's security posture remains strong even as price lags activity.

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Payments infrastructure expands with Mastercard and Ripple

Two developments this week underlined how seriously traditional finance is integrating crypto infrastructure. Mastercard launched a global Crypto Partner Program bringing together more than 85 companies, including Binance, Ripple, Circle, PayPal, Gemini, Paxos, Polygon, and Solana, to build blockchain-based payments products across its network spanning more than 200 countries. The focus is practical, cross-border remittances, business-to-business payments, settlements, and global payouts, rather than speculative use cases.

The scale of that partnership list reflects where institutional appetite has moved. Stablecoin transaction volumes reached US$1.26 trillion (A$1.76 trillion) in February 2026 alone, and the companies participating in Mastercard's program are positioning to capture a share of that flow through regulated, enterprise-grade infrastructure.

Ripple had a significant week of its own. The company launched a US$750 million (A$1.05 billion) share buyback program that values the business at US$50 billion (A$70 billion), a 25% increase from its November 2025 valuation. More relevant for Australian investors, Ripple is acquiring BC Payments Australia to secure an Australian Financial Services Licence ahead of an April 1 launch, enabling end-to-end regulated payments operations locally. Ripple's Asia-Pacific payments volume nearly doubled year-on-year in 2025, and the Australian licence positions it to capture further growth across the region. The company now holds over 75 regulatory licences globally.

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Crypto Fear & Greed Index

Source: Fear & Greed Index

BTC Markets in the news

Cointelegraph: BTC Markets eyes RWA trading license amid global tokenization wave

“Our plan is to obtain licensing infrastructure that enables particular types of tokenized assets to be offered and available to the public,” said BTC Markets CEO Lucas Dobbins.

The vision is a world where tokenized equities, bonds and real-world assets will trade alongside cryptocurrencies, markets will operate continuously, and settlement will be instant, he added.

Ausbiz: Bitcoin's next tailwind could be US-blown

Speaking with ausbiz, BTC Markets crypto analyst Rachael Lucas highlighted that Bitcoin surged past US$74,000 (A$104,000) earlier this week despite broader market volatility.
Lucas pointed to a phase of supply exhaustion, where short-term holders have largely exited, contributing to the push through the US$70,000 (A$98,000) resistance level.

InvestorDaily: The female leaders building the future of Australian finance

“Representation matters and being a visible woman in leadership in this space carries real responsibility, one I embrace. But honestly, what energises me just as much is the nature of the industry itself. I’m working in one of the most innovative corners of finance at one of the most pivotal moments in its development,” said Rachael Lucas, Head of Marketing and Communications at BTC Markets.

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The week ahead: Economic events

Thursday, March 12th

• United States Building Permits, Housing Starts

Friday, March 13th

• United Kingdom Monthly GDP MoM
• Canada Unemployment Rate
• United States Core PCE Price Index MoM, Durable Goods Orders, GDP Growth Rate, Personal Income, Personal Spending, Job Openings, Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Monday, March 16th

• China Industrial Production, Retail Sales YoY
• Canada Inflation Rate

Tuesday, March 17th

• Australia Interest Rate
• Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index

Wednesday, March 18th

• Japan Balance of Trade
• United States Producer Price Inflation MoM
• Canada Interest Rate

Source: Trading Economics

Market reflections

• United States: Weak labour data increases expectations of potential Fed rate cuts
• Europe: ECB urges caution on policy changes amid geopolitical uncertainty
• China: Central bank pledges flexible policy tools to support economic growth
• Japan: Wholesale inflation slows while weak yen continues to raise import costs
• Australia: Policymakers prepare for deeper rate debate as global uncertainty rises

Escalating tensions in the Middle East added volatility to global markets this week, pushing energy prices higher and complicating the inflation and monetary policy outlook.

The United States saw rising expectations for interest rate cuts after weaker labour market data suggested signs of cooling economic momentum. Markets increasingly priced in the possibility of policy easing later in the year as policymakers weigh slowing job growth against persistent inflation pressures.

Across Europe, policymakers emphasised the need for patience as the economic outlook remains clouded by geopolitical risks and energy price volatility linked to the Iran conflict. European Central Bank officials indicated that policy adjustments should not be rushed while the longer-term economic impact remains uncertain.

In China, the central bank outlined a willingness to adjust reserve requirements and interest rates in a flexible manner if economic conditions require additional support. The approach reflects ongoing efforts to stabilise growth while navigating a challenging global environment.

Japan’s wholesale inflation slowed, although a weak yen continued to increase the cost of imports. The data highlights the complex environment facing policymakers as currency pressures interact with inflation trends and evolving expectations around monetary policy.

Meanwhile, in Australia, central bank officials indicated that upcoming meetings may involve more active discussion around the interest-rate outlook as geopolitical tensions and global uncertainty intensify. The comments highlight the increasingly complex conditions shaping monetary policy decisions.

These developments highlight the evolving macro backdrop facing global markets as policymakers balance slowing growth signals, inflation risks, and geopolitical uncertainty.

Final thoughts

The week ahead will test whether this rally has substance behind it. Bitcoin holding US$70,000 (A$98,000) as support is the key level to watch. A clean break above US$73,000 (A$102,000) to US$74,000 (A$104,000) opens the path toward US$78,000 (A$109,000) to US$80,000 (A$112,000).

ETF flow data will be the clearest signal of institutional conviction, and any shift in geopolitical tone around the Iran situation could move markets quickly in either direction. Ethereum's activity versus price divergence will be worth monitoring as the staking program ramps up. Overall, the structural setup remains constructive.

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Online safety: How to stay protected from phishing scams

Phishing is when scammers impersonate trusted organisations to trick you into sharing personal information or account access details. These scams often appear as emails, text messages, phone calls, or fake websites designed to look like legitimate services such as crypto exchanges, banks, or government agencies. Scammers may pressure you to click a link, download an attachment, or log in to a fake website. Their goal is to steal your login details, passwords, or verification codes and gain access to your accounts.

What to watch out for

• Requests claiming to be from your bank or another trusted organisation asking you to verify details.
• Urgent prompts to click a link or resolve an issue with your account.
• Messages that do not address you by your proper name.
• Sender email addresses or phone numbers that look unusual or slightly different.
• Website links with small spelling changes or extra characters.

How to stay safe

• Never share personal information, passwords, or one-time codes with unexpected contacts.
• Verify requests by contacting the organisation directly using official details.
• Avoid clicking links in emails or text messages. Type the website address yourself.
• Do not open attachments from unknown or suspicious messages.
• Search the message or phone number online together with the word “scam” if unsure.

Learn more at scamwatch.gov.au.

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