Bitcoin closes Q1 holding firm

TLDR

• Bitcoin traded between A$95,100 and A$103,282 (US$65,000 to US$72,026) this week, closing Q1 near A$96,500 (US$66,000).
• US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded US$1.13B in net inflows for March, breaking a four-month consecutive outflow streak.
• BlackRock's IBIT led weekly outflows of US$201.53M, though the broader March figure confirmed institutional buyers remain engaged at current levels.
• Ethereum under pressure as it faces eight consecutive days of ETF outflows, with net weekly exits of US$48.54M.
• Morgan Stanley's MSBT Bitcoin ETF is set to launch in approximately two weeks at an industry-low 0.14% fee, with 16,000 advisors and US$6T in AUM behind it.

Introduction

Bitcoin closed Q1 2026 near A$96,000 (US$66,000), capping a quarter defined by geopolitical tension, macro uncertainty, and a tug-of-war between institutional conviction and short-term selling pressure. Despite the headwinds, the week ended with a sign that matters, institutional demand returned.

Weekly trading stats as of Monday, March 30th at 11:00 AM AEDT, based on data from TradingView in USD.

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Bitcoin price action: a week of two halves

Bitcoin opened the week under pressure from oil prices above US$100 and risk-off sentiment in equities, briefly dipping toward the US$65,700 range before a sharp mid-week reversal. Ceasefire reports between the US and Iran triggered a relief rally that pushed BTC to US$72,000 on Wednesday, its highest level in several sessions. The move faded through the back end of the week, with Bitcoin closing Sunday near US$66,000, down approximately 6% on the week but holding above the critical US$65,000 support zone. On the BTC Markets exchange, the asset closed the week at A$97,000, with a tight bid-ask spread of A$97,115 to A$97,237 indicating orderly market conditions heading into Q2.

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March ETF inflows break the losing streak

The most structurally significant data point of the week arrived in the ETF flow figures. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded US$1.13B in net inflows across March, ending four consecutive months of net outflows. That figure sits alongside a weekly outflow of US$225.48M led by BlackRock's IBIT at US$201.53M, a reminder that short-term institutional selling and longer-term accumulation can co-exist.

A Bernstein report framed the overall picture as one of the weakest bear cases in Bitcoin's history, noting that total spot ETF outflows have remained below 5% of AUM despite a 48% correction from the October 2025 peak. For investors watching institutional behaviour as a signal, March's reversal in monthly flows is worth noting as Q2 begins.

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Ethereum facing sustained selling pressure

Ethereum closed the week just below US$2,000 (A$2,903 on BTC Markets), facing sustained pressure with eight consecutive days of ETF outflows and US$48.54M exiting the market last week. Total Ethereum ETF net assets fell to US$11.52B.

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The Morgan Stanley ETF: the catalyst to watch

The most consequential near-term catalyst for Bitcoin inflows is not a price level, it is a product launch. Morgan Stanley's MSBT Bitcoin ETF is set to go live in approximately two weeks, carrying an industry-low management fee of 0.14%, which is 44% below BlackRock's IBIT at 0.25%.

With 16,000 financial advisors overseeing US$6 trillion in client assets, this marks the first time a major US bank has brought its full distribution network to bear on a spot Bitcoin product. Analysts have described the potential flows as significant, with cumulative inflows capable of rivalling BlackRock's US$63B in total IBIT inflows over time. For Australian investors on BTC Markets, this is the single most important structural development to monitor heading into Q2 2026.

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Final thoughts

The week ahead brings JOLTS job openings data, non-farm payrolls, and employment data out of the US, key indicators of labour market health and the Federal Reserve's rate outlook. Alongside continued monitoring of Middle East ceasefire negotiations, both of which will directly influence crypto sentiment.

A diplomatic breakthrough could push Bitcoin toward the AU$99,000 to AU$102,000 (US$68,000 to US$70,000) range, while any deterioration would likely retest the AU$91,800 (US$63,000) demand zone. Watch BlackRock's daily IBIT flow data as a real-time read on institutional conviction.

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