Bitcoin holds firm despite geopolitical shock

TLDR

• Bitcoin closed at US$65,776, down 2.76% on the week, but recovered sharply from an intra-day low of US$63,030 following geopolitical tensions
• Ethereum fell 0.93% to US$1,939 even as staking hit a record 37.1 million ETH and on-chain supply on exchanges dropped to two-week lows
• XRP declined 2.93% to US$1.352, pulled lower by broader market sentiment rather than any token-specific news
• Solana was the standout performer, gaining 0.98% to close at US$83.60 as developers and on-chain activity continued to underpin its relative strength
• Total crypto market cap fell 1.87% to US$2.25T, with Bitcoin dominance easing to 58.50%
• US spot Bitcoin ETFs broke a five-week outflow streak with over US$1 billion in net inflows across three consecutive days, signalling returning institutional appetite

Introduction

It was a volatile week for digital assets. Geopolitical shocks, a sharp liquidation event, and an equally sharp recovery defined the narrative. Bitcoin closed its fifth consecutive month in the red, yet beneath the bearish structure, meaningful resilience is emerging. The washout to US$63,000 following the Iran strike cleared significant leverage from the system. BTC's recovery above US$68,000 within 24 hours, signals that buyers remain comfortable absorbing geopolitical volatility. Particularly when the ETF bid stays intact. That bid turned positive for the first time in five weeks, adding further weight to the bullish read on price action.

Weekly trading stats as of Monday, March 2nd at 11:00 AM AEDT, based on data from TradingView in USD.

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Bitcoin takes a hit but bounces back fast

Bitcoin closed the week at US$65,776, down 2.76%, after a dramatic intraday plunge to US$63,030 triggered by US-Israel strikes on Iran. The drop generated over US$515 million in liquidations across exchanges and wiped out roughly 157,000 leveraged positions in a matter of hours. What followed was more notable than the fall itself. BTC recovered above US$68K within 24 hours, marking the first time since March 2023 that Bitcoin rallied on geopolitical bad news. The speed of that reversal reflects a market that had already largely deleveraged through weeks of prior outflows, leaving buyers in a stronger relative position when the shock hit.

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Ethereum on-chain strength meets price headwinds

Ethereum finished the week at US$1,939, down 0.93%, extending a run of consecutive lower weekly closes that stretches back to mid-January. On chain, however, the picture is far more constructive. ETH staking hit an all-time high of 37.1 million ETH, equivalent to 31% of total supply, while nearly 190,000 ETH left exchanges in one week, reducing available spot supply to two-week lows. The MVRV ratio at 0.78 signals ETH is trading below its realised value, a metric historically associated with accumulation phases. Meanwhile, Vitalik Buterin confirmed that smart account functionality will launch within a year as part of the Hegota upgrade, a significant usability milestone for the network.

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XRP slips while Solana stands apart from the selloff

XRP declined 2.93% to close at US$1.352, caught in the broader market pullback rather than any token-specific catalyst. Regulatory developments remain the dominant driver for XRP, with the CLARITY Act negotiations continuing ahead of a mid-year potential approval that JPMorgan analysts suggest could be a meaningful catalyst for digital assets. 

Solana, by contrast, ended the week as the clear outperformer among major assets, gaining 0.98% to US$83.60. Developer activity and on-chain usage have continued to support SOL’s relative strength in a week where most assets retreated. The divergence between Solana and the broader market is worth watching as a risk sentiment indicator heading into March.

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ETF inflows flip positive as dominance edges lower

Total crypto market cap closed the week at US$2.25T, down 1.87%, while Bitcoin dominance edged down 0.87% to 58.50%, suggesting modest capital rotation toward altcoins even in a risk-off environment.

The most significant structural development of the week was the reversal in US spot Bitcoin ETF flows. After five consecutive weeks of outflows totalling nearly US$3.8 billion, flows turned sharply positive with over US$1 billion in net inflows across three days. BlackRock’s IBIT led with US$503 million. 

Ethereum ETFs also reversed five weeks of outflows with US$80.5 million in weekly inflows. This shift in institutional positioning, arriving precisely during geopolitical volatility, is a meaningful signal for near-term market structure.

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Final thoughts

Watching resistance, macro risk, and ETF flow momentum

The market is now watching three things closely: US$68,000 to US$70,000 as the resistance zone that capped price throughout February. US$63,000 as the near-term liquidity shelf formed by the liquidation spike, and spot ETF flow momentum as a secondary confirmation signal. The three-day inflow streak above US$1 billion effectively absorbed the liquidation-driven supply, converting what looked like a breakdown into a positioning reset rather than a panic.

Macro risk sits at the top of the stack going into the new week. Traders will be monitoring ongoing Middle East escalation, the potential for oil price shock and delayed rate cuts, continued ETF outflow risk from laggard issuers, and elevated US regulatory pressure. These risks are familiar, but their alignment with the broader five-week redemption cycle we saw in February serves as a reminder that recovery momentum can reverse quickly without fresh catalysts. The speed and structure of last week’s rebound was encouraging. Sustaining it will require the ETF bid to hold.

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