Bitcoin pushed above US$78K (A$109K) as ceasefire rally and short liquidations fuel the move

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Introduction

Bitcoin moved higher this week, breaking above US$78,000 (A$109,200) as sentiment improved across risk assets. The extension of the US-Iran ceasefire supported markets early, while a wave of short liquidations accelerated the move. Crypto ETF inflows remained steady, and on-chain data pointed to fewer coins available on exchanges. These factors are starting to align. Demand is consistent, supply is tightening, and positioning has shifted after weeks of caution. The move has brought price back to a key level. What matters now is whether buyers can hold ground above resistance and turn this into a sustained breakout rather than another short-lived rally.

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State of crypto

• Bitcoin reached US$78,000 (A$109,200) before consolidating near resistance
• Over US$400 million (A$560 million) in short liquidations accelerated the move
• US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded US$1.4 billion (A$1.96 billion) in weekly inflows
• Strategy added 34,164 BTC, taking holdings above US$2.54 billion (A$3.56 billion)
• Bitcoin exchange reserves fell to ~2.21 million BTC, a seven-year low
• Ethereum attracted ~US$493 million (A$690 million) in ETF inflows

Bitcoin tests resistance near US$78K as short positions unwind

Positioning shifted quickly this week as short liquidations and improving risk sentiment drove the market higher. Following the extension of the US-Iran ceasefire, more than US$400 million (A$560 million) in short positions were unwound, which accelerated the move. These liquidation-driven rallies tend to be sharp because forced buying drives price action. Bitcoin reached an 11-week high above US$78,000 (A$109,200), and total crypto market capitalisation rose to around US$2.63 trillion (A$3.68 trillion). Price is now approaching resistance, where follow-through will determine the next move.

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ETF inflows extend as Strategy expands holdings and institutional allocation builds

Institutional demand remained steady through the week. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded around US$1.4 billion (A$1.96 billion) in net inflows, marking one of the strongest weekly runs since January. These flows are notable for their consistency, with capital entering through regulated vehicles rather than reacting to short-term price moves. Strategy added 34,164 BTC, lifting its total holdings above US$2.54 billion (A$3.56 billion). The purchase reinforces Bitcoin’s role in corporate treasury strategies and signals continued conviction at current levels. At the same time, financial firms are expanding product access, with new ETF structures entering the market. This steady inflow of capital is helping stabilise price and shape a more structured trading environment.

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Exchange reserves fall to seven-year lows as Bitcoin supply tightens

On-chain data is starting to reflect tighter supply conditions. Bitcoin exchange reserves have declined to around 2.21 million BTC, the lowest level in seven years. Fewer coins on exchanges means less readily available supply for trading, which can support price when demand remains consistent. This shift does not always lead to immediate upside, but it strengthens the underlying setup. Ethereum also saw continued inflows, with spot ETH ETFs attracting around US$493 million (A$690 million). At the same time, key indicators have turned more constructive, reflecting improving conditions across the network. Activity in decentralised finance and payments remains steady. Demand is not concentrated in one asset, which supports a more stable market environment.

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TradFi build-out and Hong Kong push to expand access to crypto markets

Access to crypto markets continues to widen through both traditional finance and regional policy developments. Firms such as Charles Schwab, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley are expanding exposure through trading services and structured products, pointing to deeper integration within existing financial systems. In Asia, Hong Kong is strengthening its position as a digital asset hub, with new Bitcoin-focused investment strategies and regulatory moves aimed at attracting institutional capital. These developments matter because they improve distribution. As access expands, participation becomes more consistent, and flows are less reliant on a single segment of the market.

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Crypto Fear & Greed Index

Source: Fear & Greed Index

Announcements

BTC Markets named finalist at the Finnies 2026

We’re proud to share that BTC Markets has been named a finalist for Best Workplace Diversity at the Finnies 2026 by FinTech Australia. Congratulations to Anastasia Varlamova, our People and Culture Manager, who is shortlisted for Emerging Fintech Leader of the Year (Under 35).

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After Acacia: Australia's tokenisation moment has arrived

The RBA’s Project Acacia findings landed early April with a clear message: tokenisation in Australia is no longer a question of if, it is a question of how. That is a meaningful shift, and one that BTC Markets has been building for some time.

Read the full update of BTC Markets’ CEO Lucas Dobbins.

Caroline Bowler to speak at SIAA 2026

We’re pleased to share that Caroline Bowler, Non-Executive Director at BTC Markets, will be speaking at the Stockbrokers and Investment Advisers Association 2026 Investment Advisers Association on 19-20 May 2026 at the Park Hyatt Melbourne.

The conference brings together industry professionals to examine how the foundations of investment are being shaped by pressures on global trade and cap

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The week ahead: Economic events

Thursday, April 23rd

• Germany Manufacturing PMI
• United Kingdom Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI

Friday, April 24th

• Japan Inflation Rate
• United Kingdom Retail Sales MoM
• Germany Ifo Business Climate Index

Monday, April 27th

• Germany GfK Consumer Climate

Tuesday, April 28th

• Japan Interest Rate

Wednesday, April 29th

• Germany Inflation Rate
• United States Building Permits, Durable Goods Orders, Housing Starts
• Canada Interest Rate

Source: Trading Economics

Market reflections

• United States: Dollar strengthens as Iran ceasefire doubts drive safe-haven demand
• Europe: EV sales rise as high petrol prices shift consumer behaviour
• China: Q1 GDP beats expectations, signalling policy support traction
• Japan: BOJ warns of cost pressures and financial risks from Middle East tensions
• Australia: ASX downgrade raises concerns over governance and market oversight

In the United States, the dollar climbed to a weekly high as markets questioned the durability of the Iran ceasefire. This reflects a return to defensive positioning, with investors favouring safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical uncertainty. The move points to tighter global financial conditions and continued sensitivity to external shocks.

Across Europe, electric vehicle sales accelerated as consumers responded to elevated petrol prices. The shift highlights how sustained energy costs are beginning to influence real economy behaviour, particularly in transport demand. While supportive for the energy transition, it also underscores the persistence of cost pressures across the region.

In China, first quarter GDP grew 5.0% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations. The result suggests that policy support measures are gaining traction and providing a degree of stability to growth. However, external risks and uneven demand conditions continue to shape the broader outlook.

In Japan, the Bank of Japan flagged risks tied to prolonged Middle East tensions, including rising costs and potential stress in parts of the financial system. Policymakers are maintaining a cautious stance as external volatility feeds into domestic economic considerations.

In Australia, S&P Global downgraded the ASX following regulatory findings on governance and risk management failures. The development raises questions around market infrastructure oversight and may weigh on investor confidence in the near term.

Geopolitical developments are driving market direction this week. Currency strength, policy caution, and shifts in consumption reflect how quickly external shocks are feeding into financial conditions. This keeps markets focused on incoming signals, with positioning adjusting in real time as uncertainty evolves.

Final thoughts 

Attention now turns to whether recent demand can carry through. The move higher was driven in part by short liquidations, and that support does not always persist once positioning resets. ETF inflows have remained consistent, while exchange reserves continue to trend lower, limiting available supply. At these levels, market behaviour will provide the next signal. Holding above resistance would point to stronger underlying demand. A rejection would suggest the move may struggle to extend without fresh buying.

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Online safety: How to stay safe from threats and extortion

Online threats can take many forms, including messages or calls that use fear or intimidation to pressure you into sharing personal details or making payments. These often appear to come from trusted sources such as government agencies, police, or financial institutions.

Some may claim you owe money, face legal action, or risk exposure of private information unless you respond immediately. The goal is to create panic and push you to act before checking if the situation is real.

What to watch out for

• Unexpected messages or calls claiming you owe money or face legal trouble.
• Pressure to make immediate payments via cryptocurrency, gift cards, or other unusual methods.
• Requests for personal, financial, or account information.
• Mentions of police, immigration, or government involvement.
• Messages that sound overly urgent, aggressive, or threatening.

How to stay safe

• End contact straight away. Hang up, delete the message, or block the sender.
• Never share personal details or make a payment without confirming the request.
• Verify any claims directly with the organisation using official contact details.
• Report the scam to authorities or ScamWatch.
• Secure your accounts immediately if you’ve shared information or made a payment.

Protect yourself and others. Learn more at scamwatch.gov.au.

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